OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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She really had a burst in the last couple of frames of IR.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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the speed of this system will also be a big factor in where it ultimately ends up... if it slows down then I think it will end up much farther to the east for its second landfall in the GOM... if it can maintain a good speed as it enters the GOM, it will be driven farther to the west per the ridge over time before the ridge starts to break down and the system starts the move to the north and landfall.... this could get quite interesting.... and it will also be interesting to see what the models will do the next day or two... but I bet they change, one way or another....
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 18Z is even further to the right than the 12Z run, as it only brings to the coast and then basically skirts the coast all the way up to NC and then out to sea. This seems unrealistic.
The 18Z is pretty similar to the 12Z run, though more aggressive if anything. It still predicts doom for the Keys. This also seems somewhat unrealistic as it requires a pretty substantial southward jog at some point.
It'll be interesting to see what the other runs show, though I suspect the 00Z runs will have a somewhat better handle on the center of the system at the initial time.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looks like the center is due east of Ft Laud now and still moving W-NW or NW. Looks increasingly like a WPB or slightly further north landfall unless she starts moving W-SW at some point prior to landall. Also, with an early friday am landfall, the storm should start to slow down soon.
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RJB
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
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I just watched the 8 p.m. update on channel, and it is now heading west at 9 mph. So, I have no idea what Chris Farrell on Channel 12 was talking about. Can't wait to hear his explanation!
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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8 PM reports movement to the wnw near 26 n 77.6 w , and 5pm was at 25.6n 77.2 w thats.4 n and .4 w seems like a north west movement still to me?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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7:53 EDT I have the center at 26.02n and 77.65w ~ 159 miles ese of WPB.... moving basically wnw (per radar presentation)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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the wnw motion only started during the past hour and a half or so as best I can tell.... IMO
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 5pm update was using a center position that was a little further south than the recon fixes, but the latest update seems to be using the recon center fix. The last few recon fixes have shown a general WNW movement.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
the wnw motion only started during the past hour and a half or so as best I can tell.... IMO
ok Frank.. last annoying question from me tonight.. its 8pm... any hurricane warnings going up for miami? I have to leave the office now..... and make a final decision
thanks guys!
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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boy you're asking the wrong guy.... more than likely Miami will be on the southern half of the storm, which normally is not as bad as the NE quadrant.... right now I'd say somewhere between WPB and FL... but that only if it continues on its present path.... it's sat presentation continues to look better over time, its over some darn hot water, convection continues to build near the center....... could it make Cat 1 hurricane, I would think so, will it.... I'm not smart enough to tell you... perhaps one of the mets could better address your question.... bottom line.... I always listen to what the is forecasting... they're the best of the best... good luck to all the floridians in the path of this one... hopefully it won't get much stronger
regardless not much difference between a strong TS or a Cat 1 storm....
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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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Well , i will agree that it sure does look to be moving wnw on radar, if it keeps that track to the 11 oclock advisory, id say hello WPB.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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yeah we should be able from here on out be able to see exactly where it's going with the radar presentations..... and whether or not it is going to slow down or change directions... the internet is a wonderful tool for us weather junkies....
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just a few observations and newsbits from where I sit here in Atlanta......
1) Looks like once Kat crosses over into the GOM, it's almost an immediate right turn to the Fl Peninsula....a question, would the front that moved through North Georgia have anything to do with the steering of this storm?
2) According to the Sun-Sentinel, South Palm barrier island and all mobile home park residents are ordered to evacuate by 1pm Thursday.
3) If the track takes Kat anywhere near Atlanta, look for moderate to major delays in flying in and out of Atlanta...espcially Delta and Air-Tran.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Just saw on Dr Lyons say it is now moving WNW Also Jim Cantore is in Miami.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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interesting... check this out...
using this radar presentation the center does appear to be heading DUE WEST directly for FL.... hmmmm
FL - Fort Laud... (didn't want anyone to think I meant florida.... I think thats a given perhaps... hehe)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
Edited by Frank P (Wed Aug 24 2005 08:33 PM)
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Did something happen with the shortwave IR on NOAA? The storm, and really almost all convection on the screen, went dark blue after being fairly weak for a while. Is this a sign that is strengthing even more? It just seems odd that all of a sudden all this dark blue shows up where it had all been light blue.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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just noticed that the NWS experiemental radar has not updated since 7:53 EDT... the NWS radar is updating and that is the presentation showing the due west motion attm, IMO only
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Agree, I've been watching the NOAA Radar out of Miami and the Storm is moving due West right now.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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this should show movement pretty well:
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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