Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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Katrina is definitely slowing down...and the deep convection is getting more and more wrapped around the eyewall....
this is already a hurricane......and could make cat 2 easily...if she stays out there....for 24 hours.....guess what could happen!!!???
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Lake O can definitly have an effect...sure someone else knows for sure...the cane in the 30's right?..those living near were devastated...that's why the levees where built to help hold the water in.
Elderly woman in my town was a girl then...wrote a book about it...amazing what happened.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Quote:
Katrina is definitely slowing down...and the deep convection is getting more and more wrapped around the eyewall....
this is already a hurricane......and could make cat 2 easily...if she stays out there....for 24 hours.....guess what could happen!!!???
Here is a bit of the NWS MLB AFD supporting a slow down
TS HAS BEEN MEANDERING TOWARD THE FL COAST AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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the year was 1928...and the flooding was tremendous, but i don't think the lake itself, or by itself, had any effect on the storm strengthening
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Latest numbers that I saw were T3.5/3.5, which translates to about 63mph. has slowed which was expected/predicted, and she will probably drift erratically for a bit. Still looks pretty close to the most recent plot that I looked at. I don't see her drifting as far south as the Keys.
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Check the Surf
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Clark...can only speak for my comments & thoughts but I think the point was more along the lines of the fact that the warnings only extended to Fl City...watch to 7 Mile Bridge right?
If the dynamics of this change...a steady consistent "wobble" makes a big difference in impact...a population in a tricky area getting in & out of in good conditions could be faced with a mess...not to mention the conditions those who need to leave would be in...only one way out down there & they wouldn't be traveling thru ideal conditions.
No red flags here or panic...just stating a potential scenario.
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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from what i saw at 5 am till right now. it maybe rapidly getting stronger. look at latest infared satt. photos. from what it looked like at 5am.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
I'm looking at the Nexrad radar out of Miami with the storm graphics and associated wind strengths turned on...
Miami Nexrad
Looking at the list of storms, I have seen the strongest winds go from 46 knots about half an hour ago ... to 61 knots just a few minutes ago. I don't know if these are gusts ... but I do think these are surface reports (please let me know if I'm wrong!)
61 knots according to Speed Conversion Online is 70.2 mph whereas 46 knots is 52.94.
That recon will be just in time...
those higher winds are with only single, isloated vectors. the wind direction of the one I just saw was almost 180 degrees from the other vectors around it. could be an anomoly, a micro burst or a forming waterspout.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Winds up to 60 mph
997 mb
moving west at 6 mph per
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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just in case nobody saw the update, kat is still a TS at the 11
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
just in case nobody saw the update, kat is still a TS at the 11
Aircraft recon hasn't reached it yet I assume since its still estimated minimum central pressure, right?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
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Rob1966
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Cooper City Florida
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Clark-
Is Re-con on the way and if so when should we get the data? I assume they flew a plan that had working computers unlike last nighs 1am flight.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Moving at 6 & expected to slow... is a stall possible? Areas will get soaked that don't need a rainshower let alone a TS/hurricane.
Gonna be a long weekend in the sunshine/hurricane state.
Like you Colleen I feel for Jeb right now...was pleased to hear he promised help for Polk cty though...this won't help any...pumping not to start till next week.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Still moving due west.The slowing down is the most troubling for me.This will be the first derect hit for Ft Laud in 41 years.It is going to be a very long night here.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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First recon vortex report is due any minute, but I'm not exactly sure how close the plane is yet. They'll be flying constantly through to first landfall today.
As for the the Keys -- it'd have to dive at a pretty big angle right now to get down there, and do remember that the southern (left) side of a storm is generally the weaker side when it is moving west. Given that and that TS force winds only extend out about 70mi at their furthest from the center, I imagine they just don't feel it likely that the TS force winds extend further south except in gusts with thunderstorms. Just my feeling, though.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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"Bad" quadrant is front right corner.... as it is moving right?
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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I got this last night from one of the mods maybe clark not sure but the models tend to take it more out into the gulf then the runs last night.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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Jester
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: St Pete FL
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Greetings all,
Long time lurker first time poster. Suspect I will be an infrequent poster but remain addicted to lurking in the future as I don't have a whole lot to add that is not already being addressed. That being said, and recognizing the situation is somewhat different, those to the East in the Sunshine state should be mindful of the rapid deepening of Sir Charles last year. It was pretty exciting.
Stay safe,
Jeff
-- Welcome Jeff!
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:10 AM)
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