doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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the latest radar show much more pronounced northward movement...
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doug
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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12Z west to MS/AL border
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...prp&tau=084
12Z brings storm to east of Biloxi MS
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.2 81.9 255./ 6.0
6 25.2 82.4 276./ 4.4
12 25.2 82.9 268./ 4.7
18 25.5 83.2 309./ 3.4
24 25.9 83.7 309./ 6.0
30 26.2 84.4 297./ 6.5
36 26.4 85.2 283./ 8.2
42 26.5 86.1 279./ 7.8
48 26.9 87.0 295./ 8.7
54 27.3 87.8 299./ 8.2
60 27.8 88.2 316./ 6.4
66 28.4 88.6 329./ 6.8
72 29.5 88.7 354./11.0
78 30.6 88.8 355./10.6
84 31.5 88.7 8./ 9.4
90 32.7 88.3 16./12.2
96 34.5 87.9 14./17.7
102 36.4 87.4 14./20.0
108 38.1 86.9 16./17.4
114 39.4 86.7 11./13.3
120 40.8 86.0 26./14.2
126 41.7 85.1 48./11.4
12Z UKMET also shifted significantly west to off the SE tip of LA
whether this all comes to fruition remains to be seen but certainly not good news for the MS/AL areas
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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yes it just wobbled a bit n/n-w. there's definately some weakness on the leading edge of the eye...
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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25deg 00min N and at 1700z it at 24deg 55min N. Could be just a wobble but it looks like shes still wsw.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
the latest radar show much more pronounced northward movement...
which storm you looking at? this storm has not moved north at all its at 25.0 you sure you got the right storm?
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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The 2:00 still indicates wsw & pressure dropping...969.
Tons of rain in the Keys...has anyone seen any reports from out of there?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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2 pm still moving wsw 24.9 82.6 means .1 south and .3 west
per
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Eye just grew a bunch on radar and visually it looked like it went north but it was just the north edge of the eye expanding. it's still W slightly S/W.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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lets hope you are right, but again using a very unscientific tool, a straight edge, along the top of the COC, over a few frames the entire COC became visible above the edge....also no portion of the northern edge of the circulation visible on the radar had edged north of Naples, but now it has, again not very scientific, but there is a northern component to it...I guess it is debatable
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doug
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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based on the lastest run of models I expect perhaps another slight shift to the west at 5:00... Al/FL line maybe
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
Edited by Frank P (Fri Aug 26 2005 02:21 PM)
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Just a note here about two phenomena I feel I am observing with commnetary on . First, I get the sense as I review the site that there is less and less willingness to explain the reasoning behind the forecast track. I personally think it is out of concern that folks reading it will "buy into" too much or too little of it and plan accordingly, perhaps only to be caught flat footed if things change. After 's unexpected early right hand turn last year, who can blame them? Just seems to me that prior to Miami landfall the was much more forthcoming about where and why. Seem to be playing it much closer to the vest now, I am sure in part because might be so much more devastating the second time around.
Wondering first of all if any of the folks who frequent this site feel the same way?
Second, the folks who do frequent this site (myself included) I believe are more apt to awfulize storm factors in relation to where we personally live. For example, I live in Orlando. "Do I detect an early northward jog?" "Would that mean the storm will landfall further east than currently forecast?" My personal favorite theory (from my own head last night as I went to bed): If the storm goes further south than expected, doesn't that mean both that the turn to the west will be shorter and that there will be more time over water for it to turn back east? LOL.
My point is, as someone obviously interested in whether the storm turns earlier or more eastward, what is going to happen in my backyard?
The reason I say these phenomena are related is that the kind of attention I pay to the forecast advisories is exactly WHY the might have to think twice before expounding upon their reasoning. Why talk about the factors involved in the latest BAM or runs when someone like me might look at it and, if I personally detect an error down the road even the slightest, convince myself that the storm is obviously making a beeline for my pool?
Truth be told I'd like to see cooler heads prevail on here. I am an offender just like everyone else. But I for one this time around (and hopefully in the future) plan to take my precuations, monitor the storms, take interest in the climatology, but not anoint myself the one person on Earth who can see that is headed for the 800 block of Brickell Avenue.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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What will be interesting Frank is to see 00Z runs tonight see if they keep the W shift on.If that should be the case this girl has all the Mets guessi'n.Steve pointed out the window for NO is closing if she was ever to make it that far.I think we now have four Global Models on SE LA to the MS/AL line.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Has anyone else had trouble updating the radar recently?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well have to say 's looks real impressive now. I think in a few hours we may see an eye.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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thomas alascio
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
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What about that area of low pressure out in the eastern atlantic?
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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This is an intresting graph
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
I wonder if the will change the forcast and if so will it be more west?
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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I'm getting the:
"Radar Temporarliy Unavailable"
Screen on everthing past 1:53 PM Eastern.
That's on Tampa and Key west radar.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
What will be interesting Frank is to see 00Z runs tonight see if they keep the W shift on.If that should be the case this girl has all the Mets guessi'n.Steve pointed out the window for NO is closing if she was ever to make it that far.I think we now have four Global Models on SE LA to the MS/AL line.
Don't go too much by the models. Remember what happened with . FLIP FLOP! Just kidding. No, they went back and forth as to the point of landfall, right up to the hours before landfall. The guidance was consistent, except for the one forecast which shifted landfall to MOB the night before landfall, and their track record very good. If you spend this weekend looking at landfall points for the models after every run, hey, you'll be in a padded room by Monday! 
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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This thing doesn't look like it is making much progress at all in the 1745-1820Z radar not much movement noted except the eyewall seems elongating more northward as I mentioned earlier...there is not much change in the position from the 1720 Z position either...
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doug
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StormKrone
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 34
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Hello from the Big Bend…. Well... you can blame(credit) any sou'westerly movement on me... I am huffing and puffing as hard as I can to keep it away.. Honest!!!
On a more serious note, ARC Disaster Services (Tallahassee) is now on stand-by and I will be going in to hdqtrs tomorrow noon. Logistics and staffing, that’s my game!! <g>
Basically, we have had record rainfall, something like 21" since June 1 (I think) and 46” this year. So the ground is soaked. This is much the same conditions that met Hurricane Kate back in 1985. A fact that hasn't escaped local meterologists. Kate came ashore at Apalachicola in Nov. 1985, as a Cat 1 (as I remember) and the next morning the trees looked like a tangle of fiddlesticks. This is definitely a possibility if any part of this storm hits near... and, as some models indicate, we would be on the 'wrong side'...
We were without power for over a week... and some longer. A huge oak behind my apartment was pulled up/out/over by the roots, due to the soggy ground. It could happen again.. 
Seems kind of 'deja vu-like' that both storms are "Ks"... Kate the last and late storm of the season, and , perhaps the first of a new wave of hurricanes closing out this season....
Dee
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