Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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You have to use your imagination when looking at historical plots. You'll never find an exact match...
I know where Phoenix, LA is.... My mom grew up there.... it is way the heck down the River in Plaquemin's Parish...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I wonder where in Lousiana is Phoenix is located???? west of Morgan City .... hehe.... thanks for narrowing it down so tight Jason... funny
Uh... the Phoenix that Jason is talking about is the one in Arizona, I'm pretty sure :P
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I can not think of a worse place for a possible monster like this to hit then one that would put NO in the NE eye wall. The only saving grace would be a quick forward speed might reduce the flooding from rain; but not sure the levy system would not get breached by surge through the delta.
The bad of a fat forward speed is the lack of chance to weaken prior to landfall. I know firsthand what did to the interior of Florida thanks to his forward speed. I never expected to have a 115MPH storm pass over my house in the center of the state. I just hope she does not attain her potential. Would love to see an under acheiver.
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Jim
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Nobody has thrown this out there yet so I will. What are the possibility of this making a loop out there with its slow movement? It has not behaved well so far, so a loop would just be classic.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I am still trying to figure out why the didn't pick up on the SW track took after it made landfall. If you looked at Radar/Sat just after landfall, you could clearly see a SW movement. Several people on here verified it. Now this new track...well, i have no clue.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
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1947, unnamed, almost identical path. Not a good outcome.
Sorry, but that path is in no way similar to 's. The 1947 storm moved south to the east of Florida, not to the west. And, it was weaker.
Actually, Both Betsy and the 1947 storm has paths similar to 's path. Dr. Dassau stated that Betsy had deflected south on the east side of FL. Whereas started her SW movement prior to landfall and is continuing that direction at this time.
Betsy and 1947 storm tracks would be comparable to 's to this point.
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MissouriHurricane2008
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Missouri, USA
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I am tired of people blaming the for not know where is going. They are doing the best they can, but they are dealing with mother nature. We can't predict 100% sure where this monster is going we can guess 99% but mother nature is that other 1%. She can thow a punch that could devesate the Gulf Coast. We need to stop blaming and preparing. 
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Nobody has thrown this out there yet so I will. What are the possibility of this making a loop out there with its slow movement? It has not behaved well so far, so a loop would just be classic.
Oh, no! Not another Elena!!!!!!! Please no!!!
The more I look at that band that is running NW of the hurricane, though, the more I think a loop is possible.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
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This is almost a reverse Andrew. Weak going through Florida, Going into La. A very dangerous storm. I have the same feeling about the 11pm update. They need to move this cone west.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
Quote:
Nobody has thrown this out there yet so I will. What are the possibility of this making a loop out there with its slow movement? It has not behaved well so far, so a loop would just be classic.
Oh, no! Not another Elena!!!!!!! Please no!!!
The more I look at that band that is running NW of the hurricane, though, the more I think a loop is possible.
The band is classic of a hurricane even going up ther NW side so i really don't think that has anything to do with a loop since if you look at past storms they have the same type of bands that stray away from the center.
What is a blessing is its still 100 mph and has not blown up like many thought.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 26 2005 09:49 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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When do you think we'll be seeing results from the 27/0000Z recon flight? I was thinking it is pretty close to by now?
I wondered if the flight was timed to have data coming in prior to the 11pm advisory and discussion.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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[quote
The band is classic of a hurricane even going up ther NW side so i really don't think that has anything to do with a loop since if you look at past storms they have the same type of bands that stray away from the center.
What is a blessing is its still 100 mph and has not blown up like many thought.
Regarding the banding, true, but I don't remember seeing it quite like this before, but that may be just my memory.
Regarding the blessing - based upon the trend with IR and WV imagery, I would not be surprised in the intensity were increased to 105-110 MPH in the 10pm CT package.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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belleami
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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What is the possibility of its turning north much sooner than predicted? That's what I worry about.
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hang on!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
When do you think we'll be seeing results from the 27/0000Z recon flight? I was thinking it is pretty close to by now?
I wondered if the flight was timed to have data coming in prior to the 11pm advisory and discussion.
It seems like they always get the info from the recon flights about 5-15 minutes AFTER they send out the advisory package. That is what happened at the 10am package, and they ended up issuing a special advisory package at 10:30am.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
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wow just heard Steve Lyons say the word Texas. I think the NW wobble is over looks as if its jogged sw again. Best guess would be W for the next 18-24 hours. If this is right La. might get the silver bullet they have been dodging for many years. Input anyone? 
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 26 2005 09:58 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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FLIGHT
A. 27/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1212A
C. 27/0300Z
D. 26.5N 82.4W
E. 27/0500Z TO 27/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
03Z for takeoff time. That's one hour from now.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
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Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
My feelings have been blown out of the water today.
I have zero confidence in any model solution at this point...I am currently going old school and doing more diagnostic than model interp right now, trying to get a handle on these model vacillations. This is a TOUGH forecast. I am not ready to commit to anything more narrowed down thatn Apalachicola to Grand Isle at this point. Sorry...but this is a real problem to forecast.
Thank you for your honesty. This is a disturbing storm to say the least. Is there a possiblity that this storm stalls after going SW another 50-100 miles? If so, what are the implications for all of the GOM??? All of my friends in the Tampa Bay area are ignoring the storm, so I wonder if they have a clue as to just how unpredictable GOM storms are....
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
wow just heard Steve Lyons (cone head) say the word Texas. I think the NW wobble is over looks as if its jogged sw again. Best guess would be W for the next 18-24 hours. If this is right La. might get the silver bullet they have been dodging for many years. Input anyone?
If Lyons said Texas, I may move to Texas because it may be the only place safe from . LOL. Not really, but I don't have a high opinion of Lyons.
I agree with your best guess.
ETA: Looking at the IR imagery, the eye is going away again.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 26 2005 10:17 PM)
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Quote:
wow just heard Steve Lyons say the word Texas. I think the NW wobble is over looks as if its jogged sw again. Best guess would be W for the next 18-24 hours. If this is right La. might get the silver bullet they have been dodging for many years. Input anyone?
yeah maybe it will go back down to cuba! then head over to mexico too! no Im pretty sure this one will head nw then east. Im gonna stick with the fl landfall!
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 26 2005 10:07 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Actually, when I was looking at the latest IR pix, the idea of a loop ran through my mind. Just seems like the center is tucking down under to the south. Look at the overall presentation of the storm. It is moving SW. The convection up to the north of her is also part of a trough, not a band, although it will get sucked into her. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster on this one.
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