WhitherWeather
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
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Re: "Nate. there is no cold water."
The met for one of the N.O. TV stations made a point this afternoon of pointing out that the water temperatures right off the coast around N.O. were 90-91--further saying that that's about as high as they get. He was comparing that to the 80-odd degree temps of the waters for an earlier hurricane that came through there (I think the one last year, but don't recall exactly).
WhitherWeather
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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I pray for all people who left in effected area .
I am from central florida, originaly from Euroope, and i am here a little more then one year, just enough to get all Fla hurricanes, and i have some clue what this people have ...
GOD BLESS THEM ALL ...
Vladimir - Sebring
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Goodnight from Arkansas. Temp already dropping here. Goodluck and Godspeed to all. Kevin
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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G. J.
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Rick,
I'm with you on that. I thought almost every hurricane moving n/nw will shift right just before landfall in the northern Gulf.?.?.?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Current SSTs are pretty uniform at 85º F. Getting the buoy data is iffy right now.
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Michael
PWS
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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11PM Coming out.
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
Hurricane center located near 27.6n 89.4w at 29/0300z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 904 mb
Max sustained winds 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt.
64 kt....... 90ne 90se 50sw 80nw.
50 kt.......110ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt.......200ne 200se 150sw 180nw.
12 ft seas..325ne 250se 250sw 225nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane continues to approach
the northern Gulf Coast...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane was located
near latitude 27.6 north...longitude 89.4 west or about 105 miles
south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 170 miles
south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.
Edited by ralphfl (Sun Aug 28 2005 10:52 PM)
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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does anyone see dry air getting to this on vapor.?
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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The NOAA hurricane hunters also reported an erosion of the eyewall
in the southwest quadrant. These observations suggest that there
could be some weakening of prior to landfall.
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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does the naked eye not show dry air coming in from southeast?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Sorry about the initial report of what the Mayor said..he was incorrect.
Geraldo is speaking to Major John Gordon who is flying recon: 145knts - 160mph. He said the best hope for weakening would be an EWRC just before landfall.
I'm not sure what Max Mayfield said on CNN, Phil, but the 140mph winds were from the Mayor of Biloxi.
The news channels have the worst timing for commercial breaks...here is Geraldo speaking to the guy who is flying IN THE EYE of and he cuts him off so we can all hear about how they are going to have CONTINUOUS coverage. ARGH! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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Quote:
The NOAA hurricane hunters also reported an erosion of the eyewall
in the southwest quadrant. These observations suggest that there
could be some weakening of prior to landfall.
WWLTV Has it hitting land as a CAT 4.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
WWLTV Has it hitting land as a CAT 4.
i can't believe i'm saying this but...
let's hope...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Guys... minor fluctuations. Insignificant in the long run. Storm will NOT be below a 4. Even if it does weaken... which I don't think it will... the wind is far less significant than the location, as the flooding of New Orleans is the big story. The storm is strengthening. Not weaking. Recon pilot said they found 145 kt flight level winds. That's appx. 125 kt at surface. One last word: LOOK AT THE PRESSURE NOT THE WINDS. They cannot always "find" the winds that the pressure corresponds to. We need pressure to rise. The drop in wind speed does not always correspond to a weakening.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Debbie...that's exactly what I was afraid would happen. Seeing all those people still on the highways was like looking down the barrel of a gun. Now here's the question: where the heck are they going to go?
Newest track has it making landfall as a Cat 4, still in N.O.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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WhitherWeather
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
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The met on WWL just expressed another view: that it appears that a second eye wall might be forming, with the possibility of a new redevelopment phase resulting in a new, tighter eye and possible strengthening just before landfall.
Just for equal time...
WhitherWeather
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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Not too much dry air around !!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:52 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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NHC Discussion
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Michael
PWS
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Yesterday the lasted about 6 hours from first sign on sat until the new eye began to clear out, from 11am to 5pm. It is now 11pm. 5 am is before landfall, and we aren;t seeing the old eye cloud over. I'm personally concerned the will finish before landfall with enough time to strengthen just before it hits.
Only morning will tell, and I'm going to sleep becuase I want to be able to get up to see this thing before landfall! --RC
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
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I agree that the pressure is the most indicative thing. And I've been looking at the most recent IR loop and I don't see any evidence of eye wall erosion. It looks like this perfect circular thing. Further the water is extremely hot ahead of the storm, and it seems that it will strike perpendicular to the coast which in the case of previous strong storms (e.g. Andrew, Camille) has led to intensification at landfall. This thing remains incredibly dangerous and any incremental weakening is unlikely to enough to prevent major major damage.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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The eyewall is also shrinking. I used a ruler to measure the width on water vapor loop frame by frame. the recon flight info of open on the SW was on the recon information we already had from 2345 UTC. My thinking is it doing .
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