Anonymous
Unregistered
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who cares, Iz makes landfall as weak hurricane or strong TS<< way to much hype on this storm coming up into the gulf the last 2 days.,who cares,,it wont be much. Lily is a pussie and was never more then 50mph after barbados. Kyle is a fish storm,,,we have 2 weeks till teh sw carribean starts up. cant wait!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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go look on this site at monterey marine sat look big ball right by izzy center what do you see this looks good
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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yeah so what, I am addict to this crap.... IR loop on TV shows the deep convection building off to the SE that HF mentioned in his post.... might just be the start of a trying to kick in... critical to continue if this thing is going to even make minimum hurricane... a couple of buoys north of the center wind gusting to 47 and 52k...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks to trying to reform just to the east they said this could happen i wish the sat when get back around
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Appears Florida is to be spared again as Izzy is dying and Lillie falling apart. This has been the strangest year I 've ever seen as only Izzie has even looked like a tropical storm on satellite pictures. The epithet at the end of the season will say "a busy hurricane season once again occured" but anyone who follows these "storms" will have a difficult time stomaching that description. It has been interesting though , and I've learned to not look at the models anymore as putting your finger in the air to feel the wind direction is a better predictive method. Dave in Stuart
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Are anyway from 2-9" from south of Jackson all the way to the coast - FL, AL, GA, LA, MS. Definite rain event with Izzy. Look for some places to approach 20" before it's all over.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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How can you even find the center of Izzy anymore? I don't think the even really knows where it's at. I just looked at the latest loop and I couldn't even begin to tell you. It looks like it could be east of where they are saying and yet at the same time it looked like it could be west. I guess you take the middle of the road and move on.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What good are models if they always wait to the very last second to be able to finally get it right. I think more people on here had a better idea of where Izzy would end up than what the models did. It wasn't until right at the end when the models actually got it right, and by that time we already knew where Izzy was going anyway. Models have become a joke anymore. Let US do the official forecasting of these storms. Heck, I bet we'll have a better % than the models. Ha,Ha,Ha!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yesterday, it looked like we would have 3 hurricanes today possibly threatening to come at the US from different directions. Today, we have 2 storms dying out and the 3rd will probably turn around and go out to sea. I guess someone finally found the dynogel supply again. LOL 
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Talk about someone turning off the switch. Looks like we are going from turbo mode down to looking for a swirl in a cloud again. Izzy is pretty much toast, kyle a non-factor, Lili may have some life left; but unless some organization happens quickly, may be gone in hours. Crazy week and a half, just wasn't expecting such an abrut stop. Who broke the ride?! 
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Jim
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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I agree with everyone's assessment of the models...a joke, really...but gives everyone a job at the weather centers...and to cover themselves...when near land..these things get hyped.
izzy looks terrible..heavy occuring on the east side..but dry air on the west...movement fast enough that there won't be time to regenerate....a ho hummer...
Lilly could stay south, however, and travel more due west. Not savvy enough to know what might happen with that, cause i don't bother reading the models...ha! I just watch the loops...listen to Bastardi, and then make my normal prediction of a category 10 hitting Mobile...no big whoop..
rain rain rain rain rain....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Welcome to Sunny Florida. The hurricane repellent is being sold at your near by 7-11. No hurricanes are allowed in the Peninsula since Floyd shut down Disney World for one day a few seasons back.
We had lots of rain here yesterday and its a kind of partial overcast day to day. I think we will be comparing inches of rain from place to place rather than tracking any significant storms.
Its fun to watch the weather channel figure out what to say now that the hurricane script doesn't fit. Finally, television entertainment at its best!
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Here's my theory... whatever the models say, go with the complete opposite. This means we still have not had a landfalling hurricane this year in the U.S. I don't think we will. We did have some T.S. landfalls, but nothing major. That's Good!
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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I have to agree the models are a joke. They still show the path west of 90 degrees. Izzy hasn't been past 90 yet and I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell it goes past now. Still think the actual landfall is on the eastern side of the projected path.
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Rick
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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The models are only as good as the data they are fed. (the garbage-in, garbage-out theory)
I'm only guessing when I say; the difference between the models is the emphasis they put on different contributing factors. Some have a better history of accuracy early in the season, some later. I think the only real time I put any faith in them is when they start to have a consensus. 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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That's true, but by that time we already know where it is going so what do we need them for?!?!?! Like FLREBEL said, some are STILL saying west of 90 and we all know that is not going to happen. I say just let the humans take control and let's not depend on the computers on these systems anymore. As we have seen, we can't do any worse than what the models have been doing.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Okay, so yeah - they suck. But do they all, all the time? No way. European (ECMWF) has been predicting landfall in SE/SC LA for a week. has been on it since Friday at 12Z. Timing was off, but they caught the landfall assuming it does hit LA.
How bout it for the N or NNW movement that's been showing up the last few days? Everyone here - including the paid experts - figured on a landfall NE of the tracks. When it came down to it, the models eventually beat everyone but Frank P.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/Gulf.gif
That's a decent IR shot from LSU that shows the center apparently riding up 90.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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its not near 90 .longitude
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Rick
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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Yeah, I see your point. But if the modeling was that good, we wouldn't need the experts. (experts-->  ) hehehe
BTW...06GFDL on Lili still shows her strengthening to a cat1 hit on the same spot in Cuba that Izzy deluged! Anyone believe that?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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So exactly where is the center if its' not near 90? 75West? Sour grapes?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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