FLHurricane.com: Where Next?

Ophelia, located at 31.6N 76.5W at 10/14Z, appears to have started a slow drift to the Southeast or South - perhaps the beginning of a partial anticyclonic loop. Latest Recon reports central pressure at 977MB with winds stronger at the surface (82kts - dropsonde) than aloft (75kts) - yet another storm that is going against conventional wisdom (I'm sure that will rewrite the meteorological standard for storm surge).

(Added: At 15Z, Ophelia has again been upgraded to Hurricane status with sustained winds of 70 knots and a central pressure of 976mb. now indicates a drift to the northeast and "A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA").

Ophelia is dealing with moderate west northwest wind shear. If the high pressure building to the north of the hurricane shoves the cyclone southward, the storm will encounter less shear and favor additional intensification. Dry air is still in place to the west of the hurricane and could still hold additional intensification in check. It is certainly possible that the system could acquire some characteristics over the next couple of days and intensify anyway.

Final destination is still unknown, although the UKMet model is not doing too badly with this system. An eventual westward turn seems likely later this weekend - perhaps much later, so if you live along the southeast coast - don't relax.

On an unrelated note, it could be quite some time before we have another named system. The is rather quiet from eastern South America all the way to eastern Africa - and the latest analysis supports this. Looks like the rest of the climatological peak of the season could be very quiet - but the October secondary peak will probably make up the difference - unfortunately.
ED

Wilmington, N.C. Radar