amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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 @ 5 PM is still tropical storm
000
WTNT23 KNHC 192044
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z MON SEP 19 2005
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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NHC sticking to its track of a major hurricane coming in at Houston...I believe another worst case scenario may be upon us
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Its not good, if it hits Houston, thats two major cities in less than a month. And many of the refugees are there.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Here is a link to what could happen to Houston if they get their "Big One"
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The 5pm discussion calls for Cat 3 by around noon on Wed and I don't see that happening until Wed night / Thurs morning. So I must not have correct info on where the warm water is located. I have several links for SSTs but none here at work for water temps under the surface. Any links? Thx in adv.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
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What's the outlook tomorrow for central florida? We live in Highlands county (just a little NW of 'The Lake')...
Have not heard about school being closed but I'd hate to think about buses being out in TS winds.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a heads up to let everyone know I"m going to be mirroring the bahama's radar
at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7
Don't use the direct link because it gets overloaded quickly, our image servers can handle a lot more than their site can.
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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So i suppose broward county will be spared? The scary thought is if joggs last min 50 miles north we are in for it. They models all seem to be in agreeance with each other from what i can see. I am still learning how to use all of this stuff.
Does anyone think that the models will change from here or is it too close to landfall and they will remain the same?
My heart goes out to the gulf!
Jusforsean 
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Could the trough pick this system up and post the storm in danger for the florida penensula?
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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looks to be a good estimate for the landfallo, although i'd watch if i was in Corpus Christi up thru Galveston and over to New Iberia, LA. This is expected to become majjorr hurricane , that would be bad news, and with New Orleans in "the cone" this is a scary scary thought.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Quote:
Here is a link to what could happen to Houston if they get their "Big One"
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html
That is very scary! I used to live in Houston, in Clear Lake, and I can remember learning that the area where I lived would be under water even in a Cat 2 (if I am remembering correctly.) I will be praying does not strengthen as much as they are predicting, and that it hits a less populated area than Galveston/Houston.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I'm a newbie here too. There are some very brilliant people hear who would agree that the only constant is change.
I don't think a 50 mile jump hits Broward dead on, but it can have an effect. I'm in Delray & until 6:00PM we were getting a real storn from . Then, the storm "jumped" south 30 miles and it was just a little breezy. I remember the weatherman outside at A1A and Atlantic trying to invent a storm when people were outside eating.
It's not the models shifting, they only run a various times, its . She doesn't really care what the models think.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Anyone else seeing the center of going over the Northern Cuban coast?
If so wouldn't it inhibit rapid development of the storm?
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Yeah, I agree. It looks like the center relocated to a more southerly postion a few hours back. That part of the coast runs west northwest also. Hopefully it holds it back a bit.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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She's not over Cuba. Both Radar and IR don't show that:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
She's forcast to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida, and that's, unfortunately, what she looks to be doing.
However, her center did drift south...just no where near far enough to make Cuba a factor yet:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Three weeks after , the SSTs south of LA are still several degrees cooler (as they are further down in the GOM as well):
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0
You'll have to change the date range and refresh once you link.
EDIT - OK now is entering the area with the warmest SSTs over the next 12 hours. If she doesn't get her act tog tonight/tomorrow morning I don't see how conditions are going to be more favorable in a day or so, between the keys and say east of 89W. Water temps are not cool, but not as warm, in that area, and isn't there more shear near the keys? Will this shear still be in place 24 hrs from now? I think once she reaches south of the keys, intensity will not increase until she gets further west. SSTs don't increase until 90W but I am thinking the loop current is a little further east than that, but have no idea if that is still a factor, after .
Does appear that cloud tops are starting to get a little cooler on the wv loop, so the anticipated increase to hurricane strength will be coming, we will start to see the pressure drop with the next recon and throughout the evng.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Sep 19 2005 07:48 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
She's not over Cuba. Both Radar and IR don't show that:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
She's forcast to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida, and that's, unfortunately, what she looks to be doing.
However, her center did drift south...just no where near far enough to make Cuba a factor yet:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Unfortunately you're probably right, but... based upon the current motion, MIGHT "clip" the north coast of Cuba. It's extremely hard to tell the movement on that radar loop - sometimes I stare and say it's south of west, sometimes I stare and say it's WNW or NW. Overall I'd say it's going to come closer to the Florida mainland than to the coast of Cuba.
Even if that's not the case, that area of Cuba isn't exactly going to weaken a hurricane.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Three weeks after , the SSTs south of LA are still several degrees cooler:
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0
You'll have to change the date range and refresh once you link.
That's still bath water... and right near the coast it's still hot. If were to make an unexpected hard turn toward me.... no that's not going to happen... but if the storm hits the Grand Isle, LA, area.. that water is hot too.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.
Yeah, I really expected a hurricane by now. The small burst of convection north of the center bothers me. It's as if the center keeps reforming in a different location, with no relation to movement or the old location. A drift southward is followed by a drift northward. Still looks like the Keys are going to get slammed.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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