Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Ok, I think i finally figured Kyle out. He is going to meander towards the Keys, into the Gulf and hit the La coast a week after Lili. Yeeesh. I have never seen such a meander last so long. My best wishes are with the north gulf Coast on Lili. She looks to be a nasty one.
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Jim
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Looking at the Key West long range radar loop it certainly appears to me that Lili is not going WNW but somewhere between WNW and NW... IMO somewhere between 305 to 310 degrees (could be just a wobble north over the time loop)... this could make a hugh difference on where she ultimately ends up, more north now, more east down the road......
I also think she is a little more north than where the models predicted her to be at this time.....
Hey, also some great climatological data posted on the board today...
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Are my eyes playing tricks on me, or did she just take a jog to the north on the last frame of Havana, Cuba Radar.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I saw the same thing ...
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Bill
Unregistered
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Hi Folks--
as Monty Python troupe members would say- and now for something completely different!
I am looking for the above captioned---I thought it was in 54 or 55 but can't find it in the archives. I have read about this storm, am looking up the track for an exercise scenario---anyone have any information?
I have seen this track before ...but now can't find...huh?
IHS,
Bill
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Bill
Unregistered
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at 1400 10/1/02....I about had the location pegged by my exam of the Vis pics...but still moving WNW...twt.
IHS,
Bill
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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Interesting on the Oct hurricanes. Not only has Texas not been hit, but neither have LA or AL. Wonder if folks in MS and FL need to start worrying? I think there is a first time for everything though.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Bill
Unregistered
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FYI.
IHS,
Bill
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Bill
Unregistered
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Third try....
IHS,
Bill
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Bill
Unregistered
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Last try- 4x-
Lili is now a Cat 2 ...1400 10/1/02
IHS,
Bill
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Lili's center is halfway off the cuban coast. She's stepping into the gulf as a cat 2 at 14 mph. Get ready, it's first and goal to go.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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At 11:00 am Lili was at 21.8 and 83.7
at 1:00 pm she is at 22.3 and 84.4
that's a definite wobble to the NW in my book... up north 0.5 and over west 0.7.... could be just a temporary deviation off her projected course and she'll get back on that WNW track, but if she doesn't, then move the track more to the EAST... still says WNW... they'll say that until she proves otherwise...
Edited by Frank P (Tue Oct 01 2002 02:31 PM)
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Bill
Unregistered
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Sorry for the repeat posts, the system was not auto posting...
re: NW move...well, maybe, but if you back over the track history you will see stair stepping back and forth to the left and right of the 300 degree heading, it evens out to a tad n of wnw so far. Systems coming off a landmass often show a bit of a deviation on way of the other that smooths out.
Having said all that---I noticed as others have tha Tx has not had a major hit back to the 1880s...and Fl is the hands down target for majors...I'd say Tx is not the target anyway, La east to NW Panhandle is the range of possibilities, believe the track will switch more east with time.
IHS,
Bill
ps..and Kyle is still lurking..if he lurks past Saturday, he will head NE though....
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Bill
Unregistered
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Hi Folks--
as Monty Python troupe members would say- and now for something completely different!
I am looking for the above captioned---I thought it was in 54 or 55 but can't find it in the archives. I have read about this storm, am looking up the track for an exercise scenario---anyone have any information?
I have seen this track before ...but now can't find...huh?
IHS,
Bill
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Great to see the board back up and running. I really missed the 'I think it's moving north' posts last night. Felt like I was watching all this happening all by my lonesome.
Now.....I really do agree with a couple of things I just read here. One, she sure does look like she'd done away with movement at 300 degrees. Yes, I agree that it looks much more to the NW, in fact just took a peak at 2 pm update, and that's just about right. She also just became a Cat2. WOW!
As far as being further north then the models said, that's true with the global, but the is doing a great job on the 6-12 hour marks. But it still never, ever turns Lili north until after landfall, and it seems things are going to get a little suspect in 30-36hrs. Still takes her out past 93W. And the seems to have fallen back in love with it again. If I was in NO, I'd be loading the sandbags right about now. Oh, by the way, yes to the jog north over cuba. I do believe it happened.
Is anybody else wondering why with far less than 72 hrs to landfall, and a Cat 2 hurricane speeding toward the NW, why the hasn't at least already put up a Hr Watch?
Kyle may well cut across the gulf and take his show to Vegas. What a strange little storm he's turned out to be. Splits himself in two. Now that looks like the kind of storm that will come over and knock my garage down for me. 
Joe in JAX
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Key West radar loop continues to hint of a more WNW to NW motion in lieu of the stated wnw motion... best guess somewhere around 305 to 310 degrees.... I agree that interaction with land could result in a deviation from expected track and Lili could get right back on it again in the open waters... interesting point that it strengthened over land....
GFDL run is out... still to SW LA area... however, Lili is already more north and less west than she should be at this time in the model run... so throw it out as the initialization is already wrong.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Try this link....results may vary! 
IHS,
Bill
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/lchhur.htm
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Unlogged Steve
Unregistered
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du-nu. du-nu. du-nu. du-nu. du-nu...
Yeah, last update per WWL TV4 is 7 over, 5 up. That's a shade closer to NW than WNW but would still be considered WNW with the overall track. People are obviously getting a bit more nervous here than they were for Izzy. General consensus is that in order to get out, you're going to have to leave sometime in the wee hours tonight! Unreal. St. Charles Parish (1 over to the west from me in Jefferson) has already cancelled school until further notice. I'd assume Orleans and Jefferson will probably do the same. I got some windows to board up tonight and some beer to purchase. I tried to talk the old lady into blowing out of town, but she wasn't biting. It seems my fascination with storms has become somewhat contageous. That's a far cry from her stark-raving-made insanity when Georges was heading this way. I guess she figures if I don't care, she don't either.
Bah. I'm drinkin' anyway.
Steve
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dennis
Unregistered
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From hpc discussions:
FL...
THERE CONTS TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MOVEMENT OF KYLE.
WITH THE BUILDING UPR RIDGE OFF THE SERN COAST...KYLE MAY MOVE WWD.
ATTM...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES. MANUAL PROGS HAVE SHOWN
ONLY SLOW WWD MOVEMENT FROM THE OFFICIAL TPC DAY 3 PSN. HOWEVER...A
FASTER WWD MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FOR
FURTHER DISCUSSIONS AND UPDATES WITH KYLE.
ORAVEC/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
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