jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I don't think they were too far west, but I think they should have extended them a little further east. With a storm this powerful, why take chances. All of the models have Lili turning northeast either just before or immediately after landfall. Hypothetically, this turn could occur 12- 24 hours earlier than expected and poof a landfall in MS or even AL without enough time to evacuate. Poor judgment in my opinion. I grew up on the coast and I know how people are. Now that they have been basically given the all clear, they will not be prepared if a sudden change occurs.
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bobby
Unregistered
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n/w at 15 i think everything moves east will realy need to watch this what does the storm team see
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ouch! There is now a hurricane watch up for portions of the northern/western GOM coast. To be honest...I really don't give a damn where the storm is going to hit along the watch area...people in that watch area need to get ready NOW. Lili is going to be moving at a fairly good clip (14-16 knots) across the GOM. This doensn't give people much time to prepare, so they need to do it now. I'll say landfall on or just slightly east of Lake Charles, Louisiana by Thursday afternoon.
Lili intensity forecast:
Initial: 90 knots
12: 100 knots
24: 110 knots
36: 115 knots
48: 120 knots
72: 120 knots (nearing north/west GOM coast)
96: 65 knots (inland)
NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST
Kyle: Merely an issue given what it happening with Lili, but is seriously underplaying this storms potential down the line. Is there a reason? Perhaps they are focusing on Lili now, which would be wise given that Kyle is still out at sea. He is slowly regenerating, the area of convection SSE of the center has persisted nicely today, and additional convection is beginning to form on the east side of the center. The center is also very-well defined, just lacking in convection for the time being. A west and southwest motion at 3-6 knots should begin tonight or tomorrow.
Kyle intensity forecast:
Initial: 40 knots
12: 40 knots
24: 45 knots
36: 50 knots
48: 55 knots
72: 55 knots
Kevin 
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Last post by me. 
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Agreed they threw out the chance of any northward bend over the storms last 24 hrs. Seems unusual considering that a very large populated area prone to flooding from hurricanes, and extremly hard to clear the people out of, won't be passed until the last day(24 hrs) before landfall, even by their own math. What a risk! Don't even want to imagine a Cat3 doing an Izzy move at the last moment on New Orleans. Who's going to listen to a TS warning?
From the 5pm diss.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP LILI ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 48 HR.
South-central Louisiana? Then why not include New Orleans?
Like I said above: WHAT A RISK 
Joe in JAX
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BabyCat at work
Unregistered
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They did include Houston/Galveston to New Orleans further down the Discussion.
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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As we all know, the bigger the storm, the more forward momenutum it has and less chance of a radical turn. It's been stair-stepping it's way between NW and WNW for a couple of days as the center rotates within the overal hurricane. I think the TPC is playing this out as having less chance to turn toward the end (except gradually). If this is the case, Golden Triangle to Lake Charles - LOOK OUT! That's Orange, TX, Sulphur, LA, Lake Charles, LA, Westlake, LA, Cameron, LA, Hackberry, LA, Port Arthur, TX, Beaumont, TX.
I want to see where the 10pm (CDT) forecaster goes with this. As we've seen all day, the models have trended east, yet the official track has definitely backed off west. This is an interesting play. Let's see how it plays out, because 's ass is on the line with a major hurricane heading toward the coast within 48 hours!
Whew.
Steve
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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Is that they're going to wait for more model data to make a real call and nudged the track a hair west so that no one on the Upper TX Coast relaxes.
Steve
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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I honestly have no idea what'a going on in the New Orleans area but I would just guess that an advisory will be given for a voluntary evacuation early tomorrow morning. That should buy a little time to watch Lili's track for a little longer and make a final decision.
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BabyCat at work
Unregistered
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Just got an email from a friend in New Orleans. She said that they have been told that the storm will make landfall west of N.O. People in low lying areas are being advised to leave.
Her family has made hotel reservations out of town just in case.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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>>They did include Houston/Galveston to New Orleans further down the Discussion.<<
Yes, they did, and they have for the last day or so. But don't you really think that the discussion is aimed at the local forecasters, who put out the information to the pubic? Trust me, there are people who don't even know there's a storm coming yet. 1 person in __,000 has read a discussion.
My point is this: put up a hurricane watch, go 12 to 24 hrs, then drop it to a TS warning when your'e etched-in-stone sure that you have it right. That's still a full day out, and would make the people in the warning area take it that much more to heart if they felt that the was that sure of the landfall.
My real hope is that the has this thing pinned down as much as they would make me think. I would hate to see them be wrong, because we're not talking a what-if deal (what-if Izzy had made landfall as a Cat3), we're talking the real thing now.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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of Lili ending up further east than expected? That is what Im afraid of.
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BabyCat at work
Unregistered
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Agree, Steve.
Don't think anyone can afford to relax along that coast.
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Frank J P
Unregistered
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I agree 100% joepub... New Orleans should be under a hurricane watch, not tropical storm watch... back in 1998 Georges was making a bee line to NO... they evacuated... but at the last minute it went inland on the MS coast... which was not anticipated by anyone... same thing could happen here.. probably not, but why not be safe in mean time....
nhc must be REALLY confident on its track... also Lili is growing is size, her cloud base covers about 700 miles right now...
Frank P
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Anon (HF)
Unregistered
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you central gulf coasters are really harping on this thing turning north and hitting new orleans or something. as if you havent had enough fun this year. youd need a pretty doggone weak ridge to get that to happen.. i just dont see it. the hurricane is pumping it up, and a trough is locked in the western US.. nothing in the atmosphere is indicating the ridge should weaken. the models taking it further east are the statistical leaning ones.. which know an east-west ridge this time of year along the northern gulf coast usually wont extend as far west or as strong. but it is, in fact, building its influence westward thanks to lili. staying with beaumont/port arthur, or maybe just east of there in cameron parish landfall. as far east as i can conceive it coming is atchafalaya bay/morgan city. think galveston/houston is too far west.. left side of the storm and shouldnt see much.
so far my intensity track is too low. fresh after isidore i'm ready to play it cautious on that note. the 140mph hurricane i have at landfall is pretty fierce.. and closer than expected at this point. if that official forecasted 120mph 'cane comes in count it a blessing. landfall best guess is thursday late afternoon. if i was in new iberia, jennings, crowley, lake charles.. over to the sabine pass area.. i'd be getting everything ready ASAP.
HF 2258z01october
for all you armchair quarterbacks out there who like to stay on topic:
go bengals, 2002 super bowl champs.
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FJP
Unregistered
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Reviewing the latest IR loop Lili certainly looks to be jogging to the west right now, or just north of due west..... doesn't have that defined NW motion as it did earlier in the afternoon, not to me at least... West is best from a MS standpoint...
Boy this thing is really cranked up on IR... somebody is going to get pounded... hard....
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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>>Lili certainly looks to be jogging to the west right now<<
Don't tell anybody in the Yucatan that.....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I guess its going to wobble between wnw and nw during the next 24 hours or so... Lili has been well behaved thus far with little surprises... I guess we are due a monster storm with some manners... but you got to feel for who ever gets this beast... cause it is going to be their storm of the decade...
Looking at the latest GOES IR I have it estimated at 23.14N and 85.74W at 23:31 UTC
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Houstontracker
Unregistered
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Hey Frank P, my comfort level is slowly decreasing over here. I'm hoping for no further west than Beaumont, but looks like she's moving more west than northwest right now. Need my electricity for the big game Saturday  . Also looks to be getting stronger this evening. Wonder why we haven't heard from Jason in Panama City, hey if you are out there, what do you think?
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bobby
Unregistered
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east gulf clear on this one thank you this will be texas l/a line be safe east gulf no wish cast we dont need this one watchs may go more west
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