WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The streak of the USA not going to be hit by a hurricane for 3 straight years is about to end, just as it did EVERY other time. This time it's going to be the real deal too.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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game 1
Unregistered
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if the storm keeps moving westand not n/w when it makes the turn north it will have more gulf to cross and just what if it has more time to turn north east just a look when do the new models run great job guys be safe
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Houstontracker,here's a note of hope.
Just looked at the 18Z . It started out with the 2 pm plot:22.4N, 84.4W. It said in six hours Lili would be at 22.9N, 85.7W. The 8PM update puts her at 23.0N, 85.6 W. That's real close, almost perfect in fact, and it still does not take it any further west than 93.5. So for the moment you could look at that for comfort.
Now when Frank P. reads that he will most likely be laughing his a%$ off, because my feelings about the have been made known on this board. I'm using the has a guide? A littlr further up I did say how well it was doing on the short range. Long range, we'll see.
I'm not taking it out of the Axis of Evil just yet.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Yeah HT, if I was you I think my comfort level would not be all that good right now either... chances are however you should probably be on the west side of the system, if that is any comfort... still with a Cat 3 no side is a good side if you are in the eye wall...
that being said, I have been tracking the center on IR for the past 45 minutes and it appears IMO to be back on the NW track as best I can determine.. wobble NW then back WNW willl be the SOP for Lili... I have it at 23.22N and 85.84W at 00:15 UTC (estimated at best)
Rebels got a Cat 3 Gator team to deal with this weekend too... Good Luck, Rebs gonna need it...
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I'm not sure the Gators are up to Cat3 quite yet. Looked more like a weak Cat2 against Kentucky. I hope they got all the blocked punts, missed extra points,ect out of their system last week.
Jags face Philly this week. Now that's gonna take some luck.................................. 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hey, do you have stock in ???
Y'know, every now and then some of the models do a decent job, especially with a moving system.... did a good job on the track with Edouardo, but blew the intensity big time...Maybe has Lili right on target... MAYBE..
Hey my opinion on models..... if they don't have legs, I don't want em... hehe
Models are like Casinos... you find one you like and stick with it till it burns you.. cause they all do eventually... at least we'll still have them around on the coast this weekend.... because if Lili hit here they'd be all destroyed...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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HF - for the record, I'm sticking with my Iberia Parish/St. Mary Parish landfall call. That's further east than what they're reporting here on the news except that Iberia Parish was one of the first to announce actions. Perhaps those officials must read flhurricane.com, best forum on the web. I hope your intensity forecast is on the aggressive side, but I kind of get the feeling you think it's achievable. You've convinced me. Cat 4 seemed strong, but if Lili hits Cat-3 tonight, uh, I dunno man - there's 500 miles of Gulf ahead...
Richie - This is definitely the storm of the decade for whomever takes the hit. Local mets aren't even questioning that it's easy Cat-3. Mayor Nagin came on tv a few minutes ago and said that everyone in N.O. should immediately review all plans and get your stuff together. They also want everyone packed in case they tell us to roll out. There have been some rumors, and I guess the thing is, you have to be ready if there's a quick call to action as we already don't have enough time to evacuate the whole city. Fuggetabahdit.
Landfall destination determines what we see here in the City, but we could face extremely dangerous conditions being on the east side. How far east has a lot to do with it. I boarded up a couple of windows in my bedroom just in case. My biggest fear right now is the aspect of tornadoes in Metairie/New Orleans. But the further sw she passes the city, the easier we'll be breathing. She's got about 4.4 more degrees to bypass me to the south.
Good luck to everyone out there. I'm going to try to post, but I got a bunch of stuff to take care of for now. If they call a mandatory we probably need to get the kids out of town. So if I can't get back for a while after tonight or early morning, y'all take care.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Just Curious....How many evacuation routes are there out of New Orleans? How long does it take to evacuate everyone for a Cat 3? Are there any shelters or refuges of last resort in the City? I would hate to be the New Orleans Emergency Manager right now.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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NWHHC continues to recommend a hurricane watch from Galveston, Texas through Pensacola, Florida. Please refer to local emergency management officials for any official watches and warnings.
Currently, the eye of dangerous Hurricane Lili is located near 23.0N and 85.6W. This places the eye about 560 miles SE of New Orleans, Louisiana. The current motion is to the WNW near 15 m.p.h. A turn back to the NW at an increasing forward speed is expected during the next few days. Landfall is expected to be in Louisiana on Thursday.
Maximum winds have increased to 110 m.p.h. The pressure is 968mb. Rapid to explosive intensification is now expected and Lili should make landfall as a category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 to 140 m.p.h.
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windblown
Unregistered
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Where did you get this post? 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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It takes 72 hours to fully evacuate GNO. Clearly we don't have that kind of time. There aren't many ways out the whole area - much less the city. There's I-10 to the east. You could catch that to the I-59 and head north (Hattiesburg) or continue east to I-65 in Mobile and head north. You can take the I-10 west to the I-55 (Hammond) and head north there. You could go further west to Lafayette and take the I-49 north there. You can go north on the Causeway and then go either east or west. There are some rural roads, but it's pretty limited.
I gotta go take care of some stuff. L8R,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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kyle
Unregistered
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yea i am in pensacola an i though i was out in the clear? is there something i dont know?
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Hey Southern, where DID you get that post?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Southern got that info from another unofficial hurricane site http://www.nwhhc.com
Bill
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Go to this site for local coverage, including NWS radio.
http://www.nola.com
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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lili's appearance has improved dramatically since this morning. eye is now well cut, a more circular ring. its really hard to predict how strong these things will get.. think this may max offshore as SSTs will drop slightly near landfall. of course the bastardi gradient crunch effect could counter this or overrule it. will see.
the way i figure it, lili is dropping 20mb every 24hr. assume early landfall and put the storm in in 36 (thursday late morning).. and the storm is 30mb deeper.. 938mb at the overall rate of deepening. now consider.. lili is crossing the open gulf and will not have to contend with land.. and will probably get closer to 42hrs over the ocean... this could be a very mature hurricane.
kyle is my other note. still partially exposed low level center but much improved appearance since this morning, as with lili. convection is now almost half way around the LLC.. should slowly intensify and begin to crawl westward under the ridge by tomorrow. so i think.
94L.. sputtering, maybe still going to try something.
nothing else looks any good tonight in the basin.. but with lili its not like anyone notices that.
by the way, steve, got my road atlas out and studied the louisiana coastline. i think youre too far east. but then again im probably too far west. though i'm not changing my beaumont take, lili may well come in between... cameron or vemillion parish. not much in the way of populace down there.. im sure they know to get out of the bayou when one of these babies comes roaring up out of the gulf.
beaumont, lake charles, lafayette.. one of these cities stands to take considerable damage from this storm.
HF 0209z02october
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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There will be no official emergency shelters opened in Southwest Louisiana if Hurricane Lili makes landfall near here Thursday.
That's according to Dick Gremillion, director of the Calcasieu Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness.
"Due to funding and the fact that shelters here are in flood zones, the Red Cross and Federal Emergency Management Agency have decided not to open any in our parish or anywhere else along the Gulf coast,"
This is going to be bad, folks. They said they might open them as a last resort, but there will be no supplies of any kind. Over 180,000 live in the Lake Charles area, which lies between 93 and 94W, the area expected to take a direct hit at this time. Hopefully, these people will just plain get out of town for a couple of days.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Hank what is your take on Kyle? Listening to the media one would think it is of no concern for FL.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Pressure down to 966 mb, winds sustained 105 mph with gusts to 125 mph, 23.3 N 86.3W, moving faster at 16 mph WNW. WATCH OUT!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Just watching an intense storm that u know is going to hit land somewhere.... inevitable can't stop it..just watch.. reminds me so much of that evening with a strong small stom with a well defined eye racing towards its target
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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