Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I am thinking the same Lois. When Andrew was coming...all you could do is watch and watch and then listen. It is a very surreal feeling just before a storm like that hits.
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dudewheresmycar?
Unregistered
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Ya It is really starting to take shape , I say it will go a little furher to the east possible buras , nawlins landfall by the time it is all said and done. Frank P. & Steve hope you guys are set for the big blow , as lili is fixin to jump out of the BIG POND ! You guys keep us updated here, and be SAFE !!
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Lil is looking like a buzz saw. She'll be cutting new highways someplace. Kyle has been creeping around slowly and quietly for some time now, like a predator waiting for the right moment to strike. Gotta watch him.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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sorry for the delay, but my puter crashed and then I was on the phone for awhile.
Bill, that was the address where I saw that info. I thought the info. was official, not the site.
Southern
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anon(ShawnS)
Unregistered
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There is a reason why I have been silent and that is because of fear. I do have a question about the 's forecasted track,though. They seem to be pushing the track a little further east and yet she has picked up speed and is now going WNW. First of all, isn't Lilly moving too fast to make that sharp of a turn? I don't see anything that states that she will slow down,either. I could see her taking a turn like that if she were to slow down, but that is not being forecasted. Also, her picking up speed would lead me to believe that maybe it would be that much closer to land before it would even try and take a turn which would put places a little further west at more of a risk. This is in NO means a way of wishcasting; I'm asking these questions because I need to know if I should start making plans.
ShawnS
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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curiosity question, if that wasnt real, then who is forecaster Ortt?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Me too, I've been thinking about that since Lili cleared Cuba. I still remember early Sunday morning before Andrew, a bunch of my buddies and I had been partying all night on Miami Beach and about six of us crashed in a hotel room. I woke them all up about 6:00am and told them we were leaving, they thought I was crazy, until they really looked at what was on the TV. It was like a dream, did not even seem real, but no question that Andrew was on a beeline for us.
If I were in the hurricane watch area I'd already be boarded up, stocked up, and ready to get out of there.
Someone is going to get hit hard with this one.
Bill
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Even if you are not in the direct path of that hurricane, you will need to be prepared for tornados rain and wind damage. Possible loss of electricity either because of direct hit or because some one skids into a power pole because of rain. Being prepared will reduce anxiety some. The storm going some place else will help the most.
--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Forecast aiming for SW LA, Pecan Island and a place called the Rockefeller State Wildlife Refuge and Game Preserve. Abbeville, the city of Lafayette, and the town of Gueydan are also in that area as well.
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RickinMobile
Unregistered
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looks like a buzz-saw to me....any chance ya'll...that this killer could defy the computer's and hit New Orleans?....
Shawn...you better prepare...quick...
this one looks ominous...don't want to put fear in anyone...but I agree with the assessment of an Andrew-type storm. This will be a bad one...
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Southern, this is what I captured from the message board linked from that site. I am assuming this is "Forecaster Ortt".
Welcome to Cyclonic Weather Talk! This is a new message board created and maintained by three indepenedent tropical weather forecasters:
Rob Mann HurricaneWorks.Com
Jason Moreland TropicalWeatherWatchers
Derek Ortt Northwest Hemisphere Hurricane Center
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LILI TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1005 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2002
THIS IS TO UPDATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF HURRICANE LILI.
THE LATEST INFORMATION RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNSISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 942 PM CDT...0242Z...INDICATES
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LILI HAS DECREASED TO 963 MB...
OR 28.44 INCHES.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Does anyone know if there are petro chemical plants or facilities in this area of SW LA? Looking at a map, and this area looks VERY rural...except for some spoty development along the coast. I would regret owning beach front property in Cameron Parish, LA. Hopefully the folks that live there are not there on Thursday!
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Justin, you must be looking at the same map I was. The 2000 census doesn't even refer to a place call Pecan Island, and I couldn't find any townships or cities except the one's I listed in a prior post. Even those are somewhat inland, but I'm sure it's flat as can be, if not already under water(swamp). Looks like a huge wildlife preserve to me, but I've never been there so I can't say.
Buy the way, me and you need to watch our backs(Kyle).
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND STRONGLY AGREE ON A
LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 42
HOURS. OF COURSE... JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF LILI CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA...AND A WOBBLE
TO THE EAST WOULD TAKE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE...WHILE THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THE EYE CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
LILI ALREADY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE AND NOW THAT
THE EYEWALL HAS DECREASED FROM 35 NMI DOWN TO 17 NMI... SOME
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN PROBABLE THAT LILI
COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT AROUND 110 KT BETWEEN THE 12 AND
24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT. THIS
INTENSITY SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE LILI WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Well about a week ago when everyone was going bonkers over Izzy I was going on about Lili...had no clue what it would bring us, but it just "felt right" back then. I feel for you all down south. This is gonna be a biggie.
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Rickinmobile
Unregistered
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we all know Andrew was a cat 5 now...interestingly...there are rumors that many more died than the government allowed. Here is the scoop from a friend I know who went down there....and helped...
many victims were nursery workers...illegal aliens...he said there were stacks of bodies....and the government only admitted to American deaths....
I mention this for this reason...no matter what the government tells us..this thing is gonna be bad...and guess who takes it on the chin?...the poor and underprivileged.
I am not trying to start a debate on this....but he knew first hand that the morgues were all packed and stacked....with the dead...
and yet the official count was under 20.
remember..this hurricane had 210 mph winds....it broke guages that read that high....
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Rickinmobile, I have to say that I fnd it hard to believe what you are saying. I rode out Andrew, and had friends and family in Cutler Ridge and Homestead. The destruction was beyond description, my brother's motherinlaw, her mother and daughter rode out the storm in the Naranja Lakes condos where at least three people died. Concrete block structures were reduced to piles of rubble. I also knew people in the Redland (farming areas west of Homestead) we went to check on them. We saw miles of concrete power poles snapped off about 10 ft high, and acres and acres of hundred year old pines the same. Thousands of acres of mango, avocado, citrus, papaya and other crops were literally flattened, nothing was left standing. So anything is possible, but I've never heard anything about "illegals" being killed and nobody paying attention. There is and has been a very active support structure for migrant farm workers for many years. It is hard to believe that "stacks" of them disappeared and nobody said anything. But at the same time, the whole south end of the county was taken over by the military. You didn't go anywhere without passing through National Guard checkpoints, and other military were dispatched across the entire area. Believe me when I say it is not something that you want to have to deal with.
Bill
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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rickinmobile. you been watching the x-files a little too much? come on man.. name one good reason the government had its CIA g-men stacking grapefruit pickers into morgues. is this a normal priority, when youve got 300000 homeless persons? we're these illegal aliens in fact extraterrestrials? maybe you should just stick to calling that cat 5 to mobile (only 211 years, 11 months, 17 days to go, statistically speaking). seriously man.. you were kidding about the conspiracy...? right?
lili has the classic major hurricane appearance now. i'd expect we'll have a cat 3 before daybreak wednesday. im still not sure why only brings it up to 105kt, and mentions that it may briefly peak at 110kt. you extrapolate out the rate of deepening, of which i see no reason to discount that it will continue.. and youre down below 940mb at landfall. now correct me if i'm wrong, but under 945 usually signifies a category four.
well, my intensity track is already ruined thanks to how quickly the storm has deepened. i wouldnt be surprised now if the storm reaches four tomorrow and peaks closer to five.
by the way, has everyone forgotten 94L. quite a bit of convection on that fish spinner out there.. and various modeling has stuff trying to go out in the central atlantic by the weekend.
marco... coming soon? one thing's for sure.. the truth is out there.
HF 0517z02october
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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958mb. eye presentation is good. max FL wind 97kt, outbound NE wind at 107kt. pressure has fallen 13mb in about as many hours.. but 10mb in the last six or so.
HF 0555z02october
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