scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Thats correct next update will be at 5pm unless a special report is issued.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Rick,
What are you looking at to say it is turning towards N.O?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Oh boy, most recent recon drops pressure to 920mb, a high15deg temp diff.
Special update just stayed with Cat 4 intensity.
Well for anyone keeping track, that is 68mb in the last 32 hours: 32mb in the first 24 hours, and 36mb in the last 8 hours, or, in other words, an average drop of 4.5mb per hour for the last 8 hours.
BTW, movement is no longer due W but now N of W, doesn't appear to be a wobble, the last few sat images...look at the high. Any extended movement to the N over the next couple hours could keep it in the loop current longer, and also move landfall significantly east.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 02:35 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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No one has said it but just dropped from 944 to 920 in a little under 3 hours. This could go/is heading for sub 900!
Perhaps not the time for levity but do you wonder if the aliens on Jupiter are saying, "Holy crap, look at that mother of a storm on earth!" 
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I stand correct they posted a early update and winds 150mph.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Thunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Who says anybody is trying to push anything into a trend?
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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was the lowest recorded Atlantic cane...888 mb....
Rita has a ways to go....but definitely possible...
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Post deleted by ralphfl
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 21 2005 02:28 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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If one of the Mets could comment, does it appear over the last 3 hours that the High has in fact deteriorated? It look to be taking on a more oblong shape
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Not sure, but I think they are waiting for a really good fix before either sending out a special advisory package or just waiting for the 2pm package anyway. Flight-level winds are up there; I've seen obs of both 150kt and 152kt -- and as you noted, the pressure is down there with 928mb reported but with 35kt surface winds (120deg winds = NNE of the center). I'd estimate surface pressure at 925mb with surface winds likely to ramp up shortly in conjunction with the increasing flight-level winds. Height of the 700mb surface is at 2488m -- pretty low and abour 45m lower than the vortex message reported. Unfortunately, we may have yet another cat. 5 storm on our hands in the Gulf -- still not nearly as strong as , but very powerful nonetheless.
Added: typed this awhile ago before sending...920mb, probably 1-2mb lower than that given ~20-25kt at the surface, with 153kt FL. On the way to cat. 5.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, Margie see's too. Could this wobble or movement to the North be indicative of the High moving East or weakening sooner than forecasted.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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What has been the longest track that you know of, a particular hurricane to remain at CAT 5?
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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To me it looks like it just bumped up a little bit to the north a couple frames ago, and that the movement is still west. I'd definitely call it a jog...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Latest SHIPS output brings the storm to 142 knots in 24 hours, then drops it down to 131 knots by 60 hours and 109 knots (68 kts in DSHIPS) by 72 hours, with landfall occurring somewhere in between. I'm not sure how relevant the model output is anymore, though... unpredictable processes like s are going to have as much effect on the intensity from here on out as the environmental conditions, though the latter will modulate how much the storm will be able to recover if it goes into a weakening phase.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Hey there's nothing saying that this can't go Cat5, do an then go back to a Cat5 right before landing...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Could it be possible that the jog is an indication that is cutting through the High and weakening it.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Can anyone on here explain to me what causes the storm to go through an EWR cycle?
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Can anyone on here explain to me what causes the storm to go through an EWR cycle?
The reasoning for that is not well understood.
See here for info:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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