Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Almost everyone in the neighborhood is gone. We will leave about 3 in the morning headed to Lufkin. Traffic is finally thinning out.
I don't imagine I'll be posting anything for awhile. It's been interesting hurricane season, hasn't it?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Several of the models have stall inland and loop back around to the north, east, south and then west. So, yes that is a possibilty.
Bill
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Well look a the guidence, Hugh - almost every one of them is recurving toward the coast now!
Not pretty if it stalls over TX.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Yeah I saw the guidance. Some models move it southwes, others east and then south, some pretty much not at all. I also realized that the forecast points for day 3 through 5 show NO MOVEMENT. Not good for Texas as you said.
But worse could be if it actually does manage to backtrack and get into the Gulf. We'd have an situation, except much quicker potentially. I don't see that happening but I didn't see it happening with either.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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garrison
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
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917MB seems very low for 140 mph sustained, one of them have to give, wouldnt be suprised if the winds came back up to match the pressure
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
I know most everyone has this storm steadying or weakening, but seems like there is the potential for it to get up a little more steam. Just too many irregularities with this one.
...Believe me, I was in the camp of cat 5 zealots earlier in the day, too; especially when went through that explosive regeneration of her later in the afternoon... I was puzzled at the recon reports as the day grew old, the winds never really responding. I was also puzzled by the fact that the pressure stayed low, while this prominence took shape which only underscores the former statement. Only 145...?
Don't get me wrong. I don't wish 200mph of body parts and building components in a froth of a storm generated tsunamis on anyway (not that the latter could ever happen - sounds good in sci-fi though!). However, just when we think we're getting the hang, more curve balls... It's called Tropical Meteorology. And, to add insult to injury, the pressure begins to rise subtly ...ish this evening. So, for whatever physical implausibility she may or may not be achieving, the winds may never need to respond to anything... That is why I'm beginning to pull back on return to cat 5...don't like pressure rises..
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TDW
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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was the 917 extrapolated?
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
917MB seems very low for 140 mph sustained, one of them have to give, wouldnt be suprised if the winds came back up to match the pressure
I just replied to this affect... I'm not sure why that has to be... The pressure has been low all along and the was almost as impressive as last night during the late afternoon...Yet, no response... Can't knock consistency you know...
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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convection strengthening.
eyewall less open.
link
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garrison
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
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advisory said the 917 was "reported" by HHA
Edited by garrison (Thu Sep 22 2005 11:06 PM)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I didn't know we had Beaumont members on the board....I want to wish you the best of luck and safe travels as you get as far away from your area as possible. Looks like your town may be in trouble this weekend. I think you are making the right decision!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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TPC discusssion
PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND BEGAN
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE
Subtropical storm is developing sw of philippe from the upper low it should continue to become tropical in nature over the next 48 hours.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
advisory said the 917 was "reported" by HHA
Also said data did not support even 140 mph winds but due to the impressive satellite imagery they would keep that intensity... and that the was nearing completion. Strengthening overnight is possible while it crosses the eddy, but weakening expected before landfall... which could be a net wash.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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11PM Discussion
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Sustained hurricane force winds for over 6 hours.
Gusts over 121mph
Seas over 38ft
Buoy
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222049.shtml?
key right here:
ITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
This Quote is from the 5 PM CDT Discussion~danielw
Looks like there prodiction of CAT 3 Landfall could be right on as usual.
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 22 2005 11:26 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Nothing of surprise in the 11pm discussion, except that they don't raise the intensity much, but they don't drop it much before landfall either: a solid Cat 4. At that intensity it's going to be bad.
The track at point of landfall remains essentially the same as the last two discussions (I plotted them all)...just west of Port Arthur. CNN just showed a visual which indicated most of the land there would be under water in a storm surge. Wistfully wishing they'd thought to do to that before hit the MS Gulf Coast. Might have saved several hundred lives.
Rita's large windfield is about to run out of real estate. Won't that have a significant effect on intensity starting about 12 hours from now?
Note -- you can see the convection around the outer eyewall on the sat wv 02:45Z image.
What does shortwave IR show vs IR? The shortwave IR is looking very symmetrical and values around the storm maxed out on the scale.
Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 22 2005 11:36 PM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Nate, your quote is from 5PM not 11PM.
forecast is for landfall as 125knot/140mph Cat 4.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Sustained hurricane force winds for over 6 hours.
Gusts over 121mph
Seas over 38ft
Buoy
It's the water temperatures that are also really interesting.. 84.7 to 81.3! drop of almost 4F... You can really see the Eikmen layer spreading by that..
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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I apologize I just got a new laptop and still working out the learning.
Here is the 11PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222049.shtml?
HE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.
I havent seen anywhere where forecasters say a CAT 4.
If you have a link please show me,I still have relatives in that area.
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garrison
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?table
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