Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
Yeah, under normal Atlantic conditions 963 is borderline Cat 3 - but as Clark mentioned, the western Carribean has lower-than-average pressure right now, so the pressure gradient isn't as high as 963mb would normally indicate.
--RC
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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It appears as though a small eye is becoming apparent on the 21:45 UTC Infrared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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...and...overall, is looking more symetrical in the .
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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While we're at it with the maps... here's one just for Charlotte County. The spot elevations layer has surveyed elevations all over the county.
http://ccgis.com/
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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I was wondering if anyone has a link to stats on accuracy? Where did their model go in conjunction with actual landfall? Local mets keep bringing up the model and its track. Thanks in advance!
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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I read this in the "how to" vortex message:
An eye diameter that shrinks (compared to the previous vortex message) may signal strengthening: just as a twirling ice skater spins faster as she pulls in her arms, a hurricane may "spin" faster as its eye gets smaller. Eye diameters are usually 10-20 nautical miles, while we sometimes see them as small as 5 nm to as large as 60 nm.
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm
Also in the lates Vortex message it stated that max winds were at 82kts so that would be just shy of a cat 2 storm
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
I agree. was a bit slow getting there, but at least she had the good sense to have 110mph winds when she was at 963mb. really is in the stone age when it comes to Hurricane Dos and Don'ts.
RC, I forgot about the eye being ragged before...you're right, that makes a huge difference.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I think the combination of lower-surface pressures surrounding the storm and the flat pressure gradient inside the storm itself (which are not necessarily directly related) are causing the underwhelming wind speeds so far. seems to have a very large radius of tropical storm force winds for a cat 1 storm, indicating that the system has not really wound up like a hurricane normally does. That will likely change if it keeps deepening like this. It may always have somewhat lower winds compared to what you would expect because of the surrounding below-average pressure field, but it still has a lot of tighening up it can do.
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iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 16
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I am new to this so please excuse me if i get this wrong, but if the storm continues to move west and then make a late turn to the north wouldn't that give the cold front enough time to come down in the gulf and push the storm south of florida as it begins to move north???????
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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Quote:
963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
Looking at the IR, the section that's over the Caribbean currently seems to have more than one hot spot. Perhaps resulting in unusually slow wind speed for such a low pressure?
But it looks like the Cuban land mass is about to 'lance' the largest group of those hot spots to the northeast of 's center.
Edited by Spoken (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:03 PM)
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
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Can someone confirm that the 00Z runs tonight at midnight will include the NOAA jet data?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I think the combination of lower-surface pressures surrounding the storm and the flat pressure gradient inside the storm itself (which are not necessarily directly related) are causing the underwhelming wind speeds so far. seems to have a very large radius of tropical storm force winds for a cat 1 storm, indicating that the system has not really wound up like a hurricane normally does. That will likely change if it keeps deepening like this. It may always have somewhat lower winds compared to what you would expect because of the surrounding below-average pressure field, but it still has a lot of tighening up it can do.
Looking at the IR loop, two things are apparent to me:
1. It's rapidly intensifying.
2. It's slowing down in terms of forward motion, at least in the last hour or two.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Quote:
Pressure down 7 mb in about 2 hours, with the eye contracting to 7 mi in diameter... looks like a rapid deepening is underway.
SECOND HALF OF QUOTE HAS BEEN EDITED OUT BY ME.
I am just adding a fact and mean no criticism of original post.
Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Wilma looks like it is intensifying fairly rapidly to me. However, I notice the wind speed projections level the storm off after a couple of days. This is apparently due to the expected influence of the front in the latter period.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Wilma looks like it is intensifying fairly rapidly to me. However, I notice the wind speed projections level the storm off after a couple of days. This is apparently due to the expected influence of the front in the latter period.
I just don't know... looking at right now, it appears to be moving almost due west again. Experts say that the delay in the northward jog will ultimately put the storm further south along the coast of Florida (or even in the Keys or below), but what if the currently-expected trough MISSES completely? This would cause the storm to continue moving west, or maybe WNW, into the Yucatan and ultimately the BOC, wouldn't it?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Wilma has some of the the deepest central dense overcast I have seen in a long time. In fact, I don't think I have ever seen a storm with the grey cloud tops encompassing that much of the core.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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It looks like is moving more west than the tropical forecast points. Try this link and check off the "Tropical Forecast Points" if it is not already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I'm sure the objective numbers have shot through the roof for in the last couple of hours. It easily has the satellite appearance of a major hurricane, but it may take a little while for the wind intensity to catch up, assuming it maintains this level of organization for awhile.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Do some of the 18Z models at Colorado State seem to be edging farther North from the 12Z..hmmmm?
I know that they will change a lot, but just thought I'd post. 
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Guys, a jog is a jog is a jog.....I wouldn't get so excited about it.
Yes....Wilma is spinning up quite rapidly.
She has a tight eye like Mitch did - and in the same area of the Caribbean.
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