Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The is incredible on this storm. I too have never seen this symetry of on such a weak hurricane. I note, however, the guidance on wind seepd probability after a couple of days - leveling off with a very wide margin of error. The guidance is at the higher end of this intensity forecast.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Guys, a jog is a jog is a jog.....I wouldn't get so excited about it.
Yes....Wilma is spinning up quite rapidly.
She has a tight eye like Mitch did - and in the same area of the Caribbean.
Oh, I'm not "excited" about the jog. If it extends to more than just a jog, I'll be intrigued a bit, though.
I don't remember ever looking at a WV image of Mitch, much less at its strongest period, but certainly looks stronger than 80 mph - I'd estimate closer to 105 based on the satellite.
Looking at the U.S. national water vapor loop... the trough appears to me to be oriented almost due N/S right now. How is this going to push the storm ENE or NE? The trough also looks like it will take longer to make an impact than I would have expected given the forecast. If I were in the Yucatan, I'd be a bit nervous.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Am I reading the Vortex information correctly - 954mb with Max winds at the start of 82 and 101 at the end of the recon?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Pressure drop of 9 mb in less than 90 minutes... pretty impressive. The dropsonde into the eye measured surface winds of 13 knots, so the actual central pressure is probably slightly lower.
A dropsonde in the southern eyewall measured 82 kts at the surface right before that recon fix, which was actually slightly higher than the flight-level winds in that area. If the same relationship holds true in the northern eyewall, the max surface intensity is close to 100 knots. The flight-level winds in the northern eyewall increased from 75 knots on the inbound leg to 101 knots on the last outbound leg, in a span of about 3 hours.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Post deleted by lunkerhunter
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
H. 954 mb
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
GEESH this thing is going to be packing quite a punch VERY soon. I know, the pressures are overall quite low in the NW Caribbean... but one thing I always look for is an incredible pressure drop, to signify a strengthening storm. Forget the actual pressure - a drop of 16 MB in a couple of hours (I forget exactly when the last recon fix was) is incredible. We saw it with , too, so it's not shocking, but it's significant. The phrase "very tight wind center" is indicative of a -like storm. It's like history is repeating itself repeatedly this season.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Official intesity posted is 100 mph w/ motion at WNW @ 8mph
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
actually slightly higher than the flight-level winds in that area. If the same relationship holds true in the northern eyewall, the max surface intensity is close to 100 knots. The flight-level winds in the northern eyewall increased from 75 knots on the inbound leg to 101 knots on the last outbound leg, in a span of about 3 hours.
Given the current satellite signature (very impressive), it's definately on the way to Cat 3 (100 kts+) if it's not already there.
Intermediate advisory headline says it succintly:
"...Wilma undergoing rapid intensification..."
"only" up to 100mph so far, but that'll probably change by 11pm, if not before.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:47 PM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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pressure has dropped 16mb in a little over 3 hours.
whoops......actually it was Gilbert.
Gilbert with small eye
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Accuweather has a new post up as of 19:41 ET.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 7pm advisory raises the intensity to 85 knots (100 mph). Looks like they went for the by-the-book reduction of max flight-level winds, which is probably a conservative estimate. The 82 kt surface winds in the southern eyewall, which figures to be the weaker side of the system, would argue for something higher than 85 kts.
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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-16 mb in about 3 1/2 hours. Well on the way to meeting "explosive deepening" criterion.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
pressure has dropped 16mb in a little over 3 hours.
whoops......actually it was Gilbert.
Gilbert with small eye
"The aircraft reports that the central pressure is falling rapidly... and is expected to
become a major hurricane later tonight or on Wednesday."
I've never seen the say anything like that in a public advisory. They've said it in discussions before, but in a public advisory they are usually less dramatic.
I must say, if you move a bit further north, you pretty much have a satellite signature like Gilbert.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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orlandodan, what does it say on Accuweather?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
orlandodan, what does it say on Accuweather?
Here's a snippet:
Given that we have had a drop of 16 millibars in pressure during the past 2 hours suggest is undergoing rapid intensification similar to what happened with and . Often it takes 2-6 hours for the winds to correspond to this drop in pressure. So, its a good bet that is a category 2 hurricane and should become a category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning. At this rate its very possible will become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Channel Thursday night.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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"At this rate", would be a category 4 storm in the next 6-12 hours. How long the storm can continue deepening at such a rate remains to be seen, though.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Oct 18 2005 08:01 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
"At this rate", will be a category 4 storm in the next 6-12 hours. How long the storm can continue deepening at such a rate remains to be seen, though.
I know, Thunder... I was just reposting what Accuweather stated. 
One thing we should keep in mind... several times, rapid intensification is followed by a leveling off, or even a rapid weakening trend. It's like a ballerina spinning rapidly. As she contracts, she spins faster, but when she finally topples over, she stops spinning. The analogy is not perfect of course, and it's likely that will only gradually weaken due to westerly shear once she gets into the SE GOM. Just something to watch for as we stay out of the way of yet another monster hurricane in 2005.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, a couple of days ago I wrote on this forum that is here to stay, and will probally strengthen to a CAT4 or possible a CAT5. After looking at all the observations, and trends of storms in the area of the CARIB, and the very warm SST's along her track, well it is only obvious what would take place. These were only my word for discussion. But I guess if you are not a MET on this site, comments that would indicate such a storm to develope, goes to the GRAVEYARD like my observations and comments 2 days ago. Well, look at how many people on this forum have commented now, over 215 for this storm. I guess I will continue to watch as she continues to grow more and more each day. We on this forum must be allowed with no fear of getting the graveyard by saying or calling things the way we happen to seee it. These are only our interpertation of what the atmosphere is doing. This is a serious storm not to take likely. Those on the West Coast as I said in my previous comment which was graveyard, to heed all the warnings now. I don't wish anything on anyone for any particular area of this great land of our. We must be free to say and comment as hobbyist's to give discussion on any storm but keeping within the boundaries as stated.
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 18 2005 08:21 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, they agree with the . That's what they've been predicting since the 5am advisory. So much for a low-end cat II, huh? Sheesh.
Does Max have any hair left?
Here's what my prediction for tomorrow's activities will be:
1) Governer Bush will sign a State of Emergency so that the state and local EOC's can begin preparations and the National Guard can be put on alert. Later on, President Bush will declare Florida a Federal Disaster area.
2) Voluntary evacuations will go into effect tomorrow night and mandatory evacuations begin Thursday sometime...depending on the estimated arrival of landfall.
3) The media windfall will begin with CNN, MSNBC, FNC and gas prices will begin to rise again, so fill up your tanks tomorrow if you live ANYWHERE in Florida. Everything else going on in the world will be forgotten as Florida braces for what could be "a devastating storm" (media term) tearing up a good portion of the state of Florida. Reporters will prepare themselves to be thrown into trees, cars, windows, etc., while claiming "this is just the beginning, folks".
4) No one will watch Jim Cantore or the WC because they don't create enough panic out there.
The above scenarios are not all that unlikely, given what we are seeing tonight with . All of them make sense ...with the exception of #3, of course. I am getting very concerned with the rapid intensification of and how she will be able to grow over the next days. I surely hope that people ALL ALONG the Florida peninsula from coast to coast are preparing for this storm. I don't like the wording that the is using. It's nerve-wracking.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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