OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The 23:45 IR of the is just incredible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I wouldn't be too sure of that, Hugh. managed to stay a Cat 5 for almost 2 days...and barely weakened upon landfall. Of course, I'm HOPING it will weaken, I'm just not all that sure it will happen given this season's track record. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Quote:
We on this forum must be allowed with no fear of getting the graveyard by saying or calling things the way we happen to seee it.
No you musnt. The ability to post on this site whatever you want to is NOT A GIVEN. The admins and mods have the right to tell you what you can post and when. There must be a lot of people related on this site as they all make the same mistakes when posting...
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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She's officially a Category 2 storm now at the 8pm update.
100kt winds.
954mb pressure (which should be cat 3 normally).
She's got excellent IR presentation with a clearly defined eye surrounded by deep, intense convection.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I would love to see your graveyarded post. Is there any other reason it might have benn sent to the great hurricane in the heavens?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Holy Cow~  That's not just incredible, it's unbelievable! I wouldn't be surprised if we have a "Special Update" before the next scheduled advisory.
It's a beautiful sight, I just wish it was a fish-spinner. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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You did not read my post correctly. I was saying that when posters post using everything available to observe conditions surrounding a storm and making a comment for discussion, is that when you say CAT4/5 or the strength of a storm that it gets critisized and or dumped to the graveyard.. That is what I was trying to convey.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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plenty of reasons, and you can see them. they are in the graveyard which is a completely different forum on this site. when you go there, make sure you have on your sound, it is quite funny.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Its absolutely amazing. As I said before, I have never seen a so intense before, ever. My god. This thing is strengthening at an absolutely incredible pace.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Wilma maintaning her strength after this rapid intensification cycle is not a given. Storms like this that travel to higher latitudes this time of year often meet with dry air penetration and fronts, causing a fair amount of weakening.
We should all just remain vigilante and watch the projected path and intensity forecasts. It is still a good distance and time away.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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I for on Pam in volusia think that the force 2005 made a reasonable and intelligent statement. However I have noticed that you are like a rubberband waiting to snap sometimes. I dont think there was anything wrong with his post. Try and be a little less critical!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I belive it was sent to the graveyard, because I had commented on the fact that , which wasn't classified a storm yet, was saying that would become a storm, hurricane and possibly a CAT4/5 hurricane in about 5 days. Rhis was based on current conditions, looking at trends of prior hurricanes and the very deep warm SST's. That is all. But I must have scared someone for such a post to be graveyard.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Well, Force, I read your posts. I see your insight now, but posting on this board is a privledge, not a right. You can't tell a cop that he's wrong or does not share your opinionion and he is wrong without risking a ticket.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Thank You
The Force!!!
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I read the last 5 posts and looks as though they may be sent to the graveyard, so i may as well jump on board...LOL....
Force - I don't think your post scared someone and thats why it was sent away...maybe it was because of the speculation, especially when your prediction, 5-6 days out, didn't jive with any of the current info from the . They never said anything about a possible cat 4 or cat 5....thats probably why they 86'd your post. You guys should know that these people want factual information or else they will delete it. I don't have a problem with you Force.....just adding why i think they got rid of your post.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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As I recall, this is a site for open discussion. My comments are there for such discussion. If there are posters on this site, that somehow get affected by what is being said or commenting on, then we as all posters on this site are should look at the very essence of why we are here. We love the weather and the storms it creates.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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..because it could be *key* as to whether takes a turn to the NE further north or further south:
NOAA WV Loop for Western US
You'll see there are two features twirling...one just exiting near Nevada and one near the Gulf of Alaska. If these two can get together, they will push further to the south. If they do not, will make her turn later, moving it further up the western coast of Florida. I've heard that like 100 times tonight on TV, but I wanted to show the link. It's pretty neat. However, to my untrained eye, it does not appear to me that they have any chance of meeting up. Does anyone else see a chance of that happening?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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back to basics, in looking at the 18Z and it looks as tho both of them have moved further north from the 12Z, interesting...
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Good heavens. I leave for home a 6pm and get home about 7:15, grab something to eat, console kitty, run to the computer, and find a dramatic drop in pressure, and a very striking . The symmetry of the bands in the 23:15Z is beautiful (on WV), with two symmetric commas of cold cloudtops in the (I had to zoom in and keep looking at it!), and the jump in the size of convection from 22:45Z to 23:45Z is amazing.
Now the compactness of the central core, with the dry air partially separating it from the feeder bands, becomes an advantage, and it can quickly turn into a small buzzsaw of a storm. Wonder if pressure is still dropping like a rock.
Well this throws off my analysis. If she's going to ramp up this fast now, I expect an to throw a wrench in the works by the time she gets to the deeper warm water tomorrow.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'll jump on too! 
I think the issue is non-backed up info. You posted that you believed the storm would hit Cat 4/5. That is all fine and good based on what the model was doing at the time, the problem is you didn't specify that you might have looked at the or indicated how SSTs would effect the storm strength, or whether there would be favorable atmospheric conditions, etc. If you give evidence to back up your acsertation, then the posts generally get left. If you don't, then the posts generally are sent to the graveyard as either "wishcasting" or "uncorroborated worry-mongering" - you get the idea  .
End result: If you're going to say something's going to become a monster, you better say why you feel that way based on conditions and/or models. In the same manner, one should do the same if they think a monster is going to dissipate to nothing before landfall. Anything that is well off of guidence needs some logic behind it, or it is usually graveyarded (just from what I've seen at least).
--RC
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