engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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Hello, idiot noob here
Been lurking awhile though, found this place last year
My question for the hurricane wizards is:
"How does the storm intensity affect the steering of the storm?"
For example, in reading all the posts in this thread there is quite a bit of mention about how west is in relation to when the trough picks it up, that that would make her go more southerly
BUT, if she is at a high (extreme) intensity, would that not correct some of that westerly movement in relation to the overall long-term forecast track?
I mean, since it's so strong, will that intensity counteract any westerly movements and that is why the track is where it is, because they pre-planned this level of intensity from the beginning?
Thanks,
Your new stupid noob
Dave
Boynton Beach, FL
Projected exit point off the east coast for
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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WOW.. Thats interesting! Thanks Coleen:)
Re: the models further North. Yeah, I see that as well 
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Wilma is certainly going to town right now, but I'm not sure how long it will last. There is still dry air lurking to the north, and the outflow still seems restricted somewhat to the west. The eye is so small that it could come apart rather quickly if it falters. I guess we'll find out in the next few hours.
Considering that this is still at least 4 days away from potential landfall in Florida, there could be several cycles in intensity between now and then. Whatever peaks at when this cycle of intensification is over, it will very likely come down some from that at least temporarily. Subsequent cycles in intensity will likely occur after that, but predicting the details of those is pretty much impossible.
As it usually does after a storm commences rapid intensification, the latest SHIPS guidance has gone berserk, bringing to 129 knots by 48 hours and maintaining most of that intensity until landfall:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
As I recall, this is a site for open discussion.
You are correct...Open Discussion of Tropical Weather. Not why your post was graveyarded. I have read the posts in question. I didn't send them to the grave yard. But obviously the MOD or ADMIN that did send them there thought they were out of context, wishcasting, or wave mongering. I can't speak for that person.
If you wish to discuss your posts please use the PM feature to exchange information.
Wilma, is apparently in a Rapid Intensification mode and needs to be watched carefully. Read Colleen's previous posts and please don't waste Any time on your preparations. If you have time to go fuel up tonight. You might want to do that. As the lines will be tremendous tomorrow, and I'm sure they will raise the prices. As Colleen commented.
Now back to our Regular Programming.~danielw[b/]
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Hello, idiot noob here
Been lurking awhile though, found this place last year
No one's an idiot 
Quote:
My question for the hurricane wizards is:
"How does the storm intensity affect the steering of the storm?"
The pressure level of the storm effects what steering layers of the atmosphere effect it. I'm not a met, so I can't tell you "why" this is, but it is. To see what the steering layers are, take a look at CMISS: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html - the pressure of the storm is under "for TC MSLP of..." on each row.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Here's the Visible for those two features I was talking about:
NOAA VISIBLE WESTERN US
These may be why the models are shifting more to the north. I don't see them coming together to keep pushed further south. What do you guys think?
For anyone who missed my earlier posts, these two features are being keyed in on by the local forecasters as to why would stay further south or move further north. I explained the reasoning in the WV post.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Random,
You make a very valid and correct statement about my posts. I guess I need just a little more to back it up. But here is my point, what if the comes back with an update that says wind's have increased to over 130 MPH. do we as hobbyist's tell the that what proof do you have when they said otherwise that this would occur. That is why it's called an open discussion. I will rest and get back to the storm itself. If I offended anyone on this forum, well, please accept my sicere apologies.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Yes colleen i saw your posts and agree totally. i hope hank or clark or someone can tell us we are wrong and this isnt gonna trend more north tomorrow. at any rate I for 1 am gonna heed the warnings and gas up just in case, everything else is in order so might as well i can always use it in the lawnmower if need be 
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Very well explained and tactfully done as always!
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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So what you are saying, Colleen, is that the trough over the NM/TX border will not make it in time to push to the NE as it is now forcasted; therefore makeing that NE turn later and further North than indicated? I agree with you. Does anybody know exactly how fast the trough is currently moving?
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Matt
Edited by chase 22 (Tue Oct 18 2005 08:49 PM)
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iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 16
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The computer models don't look to be going up to the north, BAMM was just ran and it is the exact same, if anything the storm will move more south of florida because it has yet to make that definite turn to the north as lyons said on the WTC. I'm just hoping that this storm goes south of florida and out to sea.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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You are right. No need to freak out but I can tell you that with I had my reservations 120 hours out and I am glad I did.
So, if you anywhere in the cone decide where you will go now and make plans for it. You can always cancel later.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Be sure and call the hotel direct for reservations.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I somehow think that the mets are whistling in the dark about those western features. I can not see how they would be able to combine unless one of them slows down or speeds up.
I believe the best hope for a good outcome would be for the storm to max out before it gets near Florida.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Yeah, major storm here we come. Just caught this quote off an AP wire report:
Quote:
"We just don't see why it should not become a major hurricane, if not a Category 4 hurricane" over the warm waters, said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "That should get people's attention."
P.S. - Mods: When you move a post to another forum any reply gets moved too. Just happened to me. Wierd!
I'm sorry about that. I tried to move it as fast as I could. Computers are only sooo fast. You can copy and paste it back here if you wish.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 18 2005 09:03 PM)
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Colleen, I think Phillips is thinking the same scenario. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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I saw the same thing on the news stations tonight. I agree with you Colleen that it doesnt look like the two will hook up. The one in the gulf of alaska would have to really speed up to catch the other low. Unfortunately for all of us on the west coast, this is not going to become more clear on landfall until i feel there will be little time for evacs and preps. I would suggest to all on west coast to start getting there preps going. Better to be prepasred rather getting caught with your pants down. I am pullin out the boards tomorrow and get them at the ready, so that they can go up at a moments notice. Gassin up in morning. Hopefully for us here in the tampa area it will stay south. But I am not sold on that just yet.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I checked the 18Z runs and and still have going through or south of Ft. Myers. The is the Ft. Myers area and is south of there. The features that the was talking about was a system in California, high pressure in gulf area and a trough...nothing was said about Alaska. The said the system in Cal was already doing what they said it would do and the high pressure system in gulf is doing what they forecasted. That should complete the northward turn....the NE turn depends on the trough....all models are still keeping with that trough because they are still pin-pointing southern fla - ft myers and southward.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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nicolew
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Was surfing around on the Internet and found this:
http://www.dca.state.fl.us/bpr/preparedness/wilma/hurricane_wilma_narrative.htm
It seems Florida did a training exercise with a simulated "Hurricane " back in 2002!
Most of the discussion here is about landfall on the southwest Florida coast - if that happens, what kind of effects would we be feeling in Miami?
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, the METS at the are now saying that. But they said a couple days back that it would not intensify to this level. What do we call this latest report, SPECULATION!!
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