VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Back to Kyle, looking at the forecast, the WV loop and steering winds, I am confused about the relatively quick (given his tendancy to do nothing else quick) move to the NW in their forecast. Looks like a W or SW movement this morning. Any body got any ideas?
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cooltiger
Unregistered
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Bill Grey predicted 1 for October. BTW he predicted 3 for September(we had 8).
I think we'll have 3 plus a subtropical storm. 1 in the BOC, 1 in the Carribean and 1 in the Atlantic near Bermuda.
I also see 1 in the Carribean for November.
Things are still rather warm in the Gulf since the fronts have not been whistling through yet. 50s have been predicted here several times already in the medium range forecasts here in La., but have failed to verify. They are saying in the 50s next week for the lows in B. R. but we'll have to see. The tropics have been winning out.
The way I see it the Panhandle and the Keys are ripe targets for October storms.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Frank P,
This is really funny...I laughed a lot. Thanks for the good time.
cc 
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Frank,
They forgot the AXE! Gotta have an axe!
Cynthia
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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AAAACCCKK!! Referring to my previous post Mike, Kyle's surface circulation took a beeline north, but it's hooking NW now. Meanwhile, the convection with a mid-level circulation (??) is heading SW against the flow of Kyle's Surface circulation. This mid-level circulation may try to take on a life of it's own if they move away from each other quickly. Kyle gives birth? Must have gone to Amsterdam for surgery. Anyhow this is an idea, we'll watch and see. But Kyle clearly is exposed and heading north. I don't think I've ever seen a MLC break off and swim against the LLC like that. Maybe this is the Son of Kyle that we thought would happen (at least Melbourne NWS jokingly referred to it from the models on Tuesday). Maybe it will come to pass. Nah, probably not. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Bill
Unregistered
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I wasn't going to say anything but....
Folks, the comments about how God did not "spare" those in the path of Andrew are so WRONG. A CAT 5 hurricane hit S Fl and La (Cat 4) and ONLY 33 people died? Yes, there was a lot of property damage....but amazingly few deaths and injuries. That is the miracle of Andrew. As a song says...sometimes God calms the storm, sometimes he calms the child.
I don't want to get into a theological debate, everyone is entitled to their view. RE: temp gradients...haven't we seen powerful hurricanes over less than optimum water temperatures before that kept or increased their intensity, rather than lost it? I don't buy that as THE explanation, but I'll put it this way---even if it was the water temp gradient.....how convenient that it was in just the right place and time..or that the storm was in the right place and time, eh? Not a coincidence!
IHS,
Bill
ps---and then there was Cat 4 Bret hitting the least populated place on the entire US Gulf and East coasts?! A miracle is a miracle, and it wasn't by chance.
I don't pretend to understand why and how God does what HE does all the time, but , like 'good art' I know it when I see it!
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Bill
Unregistered
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Fantastic..thanks, will insert "Florida" and 'florida-ese' in the appropriate places...
Great job, ROFL!
IHS,
Bill
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Spawn of Lili
Unregistered
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Great and completely applicable article Frank P. We're seeing probably our last band from Lili in the CBD right now. Just a sprinkle and some wind, but I'll take 'dem tropical rains anytime I can get 'em.
Steve
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Bill
Unregistered
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We were just talking about is at the office today, and I see that the attitude of some on the board is that 'the season is (nearly) over'.
Well, no, it has 7 weeks to go, and October can be busy. I don't know how busy but I sorta like what cooltiger (I think it was) said---3 storms and a st. And Fl is the most likely Oct/Nov target. Water is still very warm, in fact , it rebounded from 79 degrees just off our coast to 82 degrees today...on the north Gulf!
The point is, we still have the secondary peak in October to get through, and just because we have gone through a spate of 'close to home' storms, doesn't me we are through, or out of the woods.
Don't forget Kate in 85---Thanksgiving week, right here in Tallahassee! Cat 3 in the Gulf, Cat 2 at landfall.....
BTW, Kyle gave birth once,, maybe he will do it again?
IHS,
Bill
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wannaBfrankP
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
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Nice one oh Jedi master of the hurricane, but...
You forgot two key topics for most of us Louisianaians hurricane preparations: beer and Nash.
I'm sure most southern Louisiana residents just didn't feel right this year with a notably absent Nash Roberts. I know that I, for one, heard several quiet whispers to the effect of, "Do you think they'll bring him back for one more year?" The comfort level of the general populous would have been raised a little if channel 4 would have maybe even played some old tapes of Nash and his marker (which I hear is now in the Smithsonian.)
The other important element in any good southern LA resident is the beer. I live directly on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain (don't cringe, Slidell, not Mandeville), and for much of the past week, our street has been covered in marsh grass, camp debris, and water. It just wouldn't be the same to drive down my street and not see three can cosey-equiped beer-toating buddies for every one debris shoveler.
We all should be very thankful to live around such great people always willing to lend a hand. In fact, I saw more waves and smiles in the past week than I have seen all year. Thank goodness (translation: dynagel) things were not much much worse.
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Brett
Unregistered
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I don't mean to pick on you Bill...but I have to speak to what I believe as well. There are endless candidates for miracles throughout history, when seen in a sympathetic light. We could go on and on and on about how something's favorable outcome was a "miracle," when it in fact could just as well (and most likely) have been due to chance. Flame me if ya like, but the lawyer in me finds fault in your logic.
By your reasoning, Lili was a miracle, beacuse she weakened. Andrew was a miracle as well, not because he weakened, but because people were somehow "spared." So we have miracles on two fronts, to the sympathethic eye. Logically then, God was not happy with the people in Galveston (where 8,000 were killed), Florida/Lake Okeechobee (over 1,500) or even Audrey in '57 (nearly 400), for these storms certainly cannot be considered miracles...or can they?? Perhaps they were miracles because they fertilized the land, or because 10,000 other people were spared...who knows?
All condescension aside, you have a right to your opinion, and me to mine. But if you are going to attempt to present logical argument, be prepared to defend it without bending your own rules when unfavorable evidence presents itself.
No one can prove or disprove the existence of a higher being at this point in time...but I would like to think that a storm that brought death, property damage, disease, and financial ruin to entire communities in South Florida would NOT be considered one of his "miracles." I shudder to think of what would happen if I took his name in vain...
Thats my last on the topic, and sorry for the tangent. On to Kyle...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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WBFP, two excellent points about the beer and Nash.... (although I think beer basically flows through their water taps) I'm also surprised old Mr. Roberts didn't make a guest appearance on WWL...
Cynthia we gotta add the axe to the list too.. 'cause dey all be axing for an axe right after dat dam storm'....
Hey WannaBFrankP.................. Nice screen name.... hehe....
And I know who you are, and where you live and where your work........ so unless you change it.... don't be surprised to find maybe a horse's head in your bed this weekend... HA.. I am Italiano remember....
too funny
Bill, I don't think the season is over yet... I expected at least a couple more storms during October.... big cold front should be here this weekend for NGC.... certainly time for that to factor in .... I just need a couple weeks reprieve..... to catch up on some sleep......
ciao
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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........the 11pm discussion, this will be an agonizing week or more. Franklin is definitely getting punchy:
THE ENVIRONMENT OF KYLE IS CURRENTLY VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AND THE SURROUNDING AIR IS
RATHER DRY. CONSEQUENTLY I EXPECT KYLE TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE THE SHEAR LESSENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT. NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NON- OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS LIKELY TO CREATE MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR KYLE.
HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE. JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT
THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS
ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF
THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.
I hope the game is more exciting. ! Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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mjo graphic shows the basin going into negative for a while.. probably not much activity for the next week or two. el nino is also finally squeezing out the cool SST pool near the galapagos, so basin shear shouldnt get any lighter. still expect another storm or two.
on another note i've taken a glance at kyle.. convection is just about gone. kyle has to survive for a while without convection if it wants to keep on being a pest. i'd say probably better than 50% it dissipates within the next few hours.. but the chance that it will keep persisting isnt lost on me.. it's already been going for two weeks.
going to get my fall break morning of hunting done.. time to catch some shuteye.
HF aiken, sc 0503z05october
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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There has been a huge flare up of convection east of Nicaragua over night. Anything going to come from this? This is the time of year for that region. not mentioning anything.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html
do the close-up animation thing.
hints at a rotation.
good catch Richie
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Agree Richie, this area has been where the models have been hot and cold on with development during the past week, but theycontinue to show pressure falls in that area, particularly the UKMET. Can't tell what the shear is like there yet. Have to check it out. Let's see if this area persists. Cheers!! Steve H.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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There is no doubt a big blow up of convection down there, and this is the time of year to see systems come from this area. Will need to keep watch.
There is also a little flare up around 52 and 13. Did you notice the little spin to its NW. I'm just learning all this stuff, so what i think I am seeing is a trough in that area that is pulling the convection a little N and the spin is a upper level low????
Go easy on me if I am wrong .... and If I am wrong please explain to me what is happening in this area.
Toni 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks to be some SW winds over that area of the Caribbean (especially evident in the WV loop)..blowing clouds off to the NE.
As for Kyle, the 5am advisory has him at 32.0N, 72.0W. I just checked out the latest visible. The exposed LLC is very clearly defined at 32.3N, but only 71.1W..is this a move toward the east? Kyle keeps trying to fire up some convection below the center, but this just gets sheared off to the southwest.
Lou
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Like I said in my post on Thursday, watch the SW Caribbean closely in the coming days. This looks to be associated with a tropical wave that isn't moving a whole lot. There was some weaker convection near Panama yesterday. If this convection is from the same source as yesterday's was, then I'd say the area might have drifted NW some. There could be a slight mid-level rotation with the convection, but this one has a ways to go. Persistance would help. If I remember right, Michelle came from a disorganized yet persistant area of thunderstorm activity around the same area.
Kyle needs to go away, either that or do something else. Tracking him is actually getting be annoying.
Kevin
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