weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Is it really a strong trough or not? I thought it missed it? H-ll- im totally confused now. Is the thing moving north or not?
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TomKuhn
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Hello everyone,
I just wanted to get an issue I have off my chest. As a follower of this site for two years, I want to say thank you for all the great, informative information given. I always know that I can turn to this site for real information and analysis of any weather systems that could be a threat to human life. No one is always right, and no one is always wrong, but the sharing of information between one another in a public forum is more powerful and informative than any weatherman's prediction available. Just try posting in the National Electric Code Forum(NEC) for an example of this the type of secretive, non idea sharing, close minded people. That does not happen here, as everone has a voice. Thank you again.
Onto the meat...
The issue that really troubles me is the local new media and their "I know Everything" attitude. As a local in Orlando, this morning I got bombarded by the "know it all weatherman", who tells me (And every other listener) "This is going to be a South Florida Event...we will get rain and some wind...", or other nonsense that leaves people with an undue sense of confidence that this storm will NOT be knocking on their back doors in a weeks time. This in turn causes a lack of preparedness that is needed by everyone. This mornings newcast had 's track plotted out all the way passed the Bahamas and up the east coast (The latest model would have suprised them). There was an assuring tone in the voice that Central Florida would be spared any destruction. I am not asking for weather people to be completely vague, but let the listener know "...This is the current MODELED projected path...it could change...Watch the cone...We do not know everything..."
Thats it,
Tom
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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18Z still slows the system near the Yucutan, but does not stall it like the 12Z run did. It connects with the trough and has the system into the Keys/SW Florida at around 102 hours and near Rhode Island at 126 hours, moving N at 53 knots at the end of the forecast!
It is more similar to the previous runs before the 12Z run, albeit slower to bring it into Florida.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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I go from Phillips saying he thinks it will be a ft.myers landfall to no Fl landfall at all. I'll tell you what this is really bizarre. Maybe theres just to much media hype.. and early panick predictions..
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well the panic many got from the model going inland across the Yucatan then slwoly east has changed as of the new 0z run. It now takes it back through the Yucatan channel and across southern Florida and up the eastern seaboard.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Remember that the 5pm update included points moved west to accomodate the and points further south for the same reason. They were placed where they were to be close enough to still verify well for the next 24 hours until the "bubble" of uncertainty had passed.
Therefore, I'd expect that as approached the first of these points, she would be where expected at 11am, or North and East of these points (or at least East since she has slowed somewhat).
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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yes and she does seem to be running like that as of now, if the "trend" (if it is one) continues then she will be east and north of the forcast points
also it does seem that wunderground computer models are showing the run to be back in line now...... verrrry interesting 
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Well the panic many got from the model going inland across the Yucatan then slwoly east has changed as of the new 0z run. It now takes it back through the Yucatan channel and across southern Florida and up the eastern seaboard.
The BAMM has not changed (yet) that I can tell,though.
Well, the 8pm advisory is out - status quo for now until a new recon.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 'parent' model of the (the ) did not change that much from its last run, so the variation in output from run to run indicates that small differences could have a huge effect on the eventual track. The overall predictability of this scenario seems marginal at best, so there will likely be some uncertainty to deal with for awhile. Whether or not actually makes landfall in the Yucutan or not would make a huge difference on the eventual intensity as well, so the intensity forecast is even more uncertain, since it hinges on an uncertain forecast track, not to mention s.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:01 PM)
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Ned
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
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Quote:
The last 3 hour loop shows a solid NW movement - just as most models have predicted. I expect this storm to pretty much follow the synoptic pattern with movement through the YUC Channel and curving toward the NE for an impact somewhere between the Keys and Tampa. There has been absolutely nothing to change the forecast reasoning today. We will begin to narrow landfall predictions with good certainty tomorrow. Like I said earlier, one odd model run with no other globals following it, no worries - I dont buy the slowing down either - not with a fairly strong trough picking this storm up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
small sines,stays south,Keys
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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when was that updated?
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Quote:
Well the panic many got from the model going inland across the Yucatan then slwoly east has changed as of the new 0z run. It now takes it back through the Yucatan channel and across southern Florida and up the eastern seaboard.
The BAMM has not changed (yet) that I can tell,though.
Well, the 8pm advisory is out - status quo for now until a new recon.
Honestly speaking, after reading the pros opinions here and elsewhere, I think I'm not going to get excited about the final turn until I see the runs after the data from tommorrow's recon runs by the high altitude and regular missions.
Just me and my opinion. I'm prepping and everyone in Western Florida should also.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Is it really a strong trough or not? I thought it missed it? H-ll- im totally confused now. Is the thing moving north or not?
The trough is still over the great plains moving east. This trough and ULL will break down the ridge over the western GOM allowing to move more NW and eventually north over the next 48 hours. has moved to the NW over the last 5 hours or so & appears to be following most model projections aiming for a passage near the NE tip of the YUC Pen. No real change in the synoptic features - of course timing is everything but I don't see anything to change the projected landfall somewhere from Tampa to the Keys on late SAT or Sun.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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it ran at 2330 z
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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Quote:
The is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Yes but the last run before the outlier had it going to Sanibel/Charlotte Harbor. Now it's over Flamingo. Big difference for those of us in SWFL.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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I wonder about that LBAR run. Very bizzare how far north it is tracking.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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That's really difficult to determine since the eye has been, and still is performing, some rather interesting mini-loops along a generally WNW path. Also, the 5PM Discussion stated that the forecast confidence is considerably less than prior discussions. A lot depends on the strength of the mid-lat low/trough and its speed. Whether that will actually pick up is now a subject for debate. Right now it's a crap shoot.
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Michael
PWS
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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gotta love know-it-alls. Almost makes up for us know-nuttin's. The way is working i know less wiith every hour.
Update on the Treasure Coast is we're planning for a not insignificant impact. We're opening 8 shelters in 2 counties for 0800 saturday morning. We're planning for and expecting a mostly wind event of 80mph-100mph or so. The question is how much interaction with the Yucatan will impact the wind field, intensity, etc.
we'll see how the 2300 update looks and what tomorow brings. We did take a vote at the ARC chapter today and decided to cancel the hurricane.....
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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My thought earlier was that the trough wasent going to dig that much south.But know that the is up the land fall really seems to be florida.Somewhere form tampa to key west. I in my opinion see a land fall by where made landfall by punta gorda.
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