typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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The is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
This run is actually more dangerous for New England than even the 06Z was... is not traversing that much of the land mass of Florida before gradually curving more N with latitude, and accelerating something fierce.. This solution suggests that she will be a formidable player even up in the NE U.S. Coast line.
The synoptic reasoning never really changed, which in earlier post I was attempting to elucidate much of that, and how that fact made the 12Z run dubious. Doesn't mean it won't happen like the 12Z run has it...just that it's extreme discontinuity didn't sit well, a) and b), actually was somewhat of an incongruity with governing players..
I've heard those stating that the lead impulse currently tumbling out of the Rockies would not be sufficient in initiating a NW/N pull to get the ball rolling... That may be the case, but this could still transpire along the previous track philosophy without that... Reason being, the NAO is currently in a negative phase and the trough amplification in the Ohio Valley invariably will end up deeper with teleconnections like this in play.. In English, statistically correlated behavior for a height wall over Davis Straight and Greenland is usually counter-balanced down near 40N by 80W, by and equal anomaly in the negative direction... In addition, confluence is migrating/evolving in the middle troposphere by 3 days from now, the axis of which is oriented wnw-ese from N of Maine. This makes it hard to imagine the lead impulse escaping too quickly, and in fact, there does seem plausibility that this lead impulse will be phased with the more import impulse coming down the pike in about 84 hours. This where the plot really thickens and also makes the 06Z and 18Z more believable... The trouble is, I just want to be certain that the data integrity in these runs were clean - Clark seemed to suggest that it was earlier (confirm?).
In addition, ridges out in the Atlantic are often not correctly anticipated in the models because that is a data sparse region... This ridge could effectively behave like a wall in preventing a weakening to carve through.. If that were not enough... Alot of this is actually going to come down to the degree of the amplification of the ridge over the Rocky Cordillera.. It's axis is actually ideal for what presages Nor'easters ....very interesting... a) but also b), if it is more responsive to the large negative anom in the Gulf of Alaska, the down wind result would be a deeper meridianal expression of the main Ohio Valley trough amplification. Anyway, the ridge in the Atlantic and the ridge amplification in the Intermountain West are two important players in the large scope, the degree of which will have an influence here in the ultimate track of .
As for Floridians... I still suggest all system are go for bringing preparations to completion. We aren't in hurry up mode just yet, but a concerted effort nonetheless...
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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My thought earlier was that the trough wasent going to dig that much south.But know that the is up the land fall really seems to be florida.Somewhere form tampa to key west. I in my opinion see a land fall by where made landfall by punta gorda.
All day long, I hear ALOT of folks talking about a landfall NEAR Punta Gorda. I'm still exhausted from my drive down to Marco Island and back up here and you can smell the panic in the air and see the gas stations out of gas.
I think that the models will draw a better consensus by 1800Z tommorrow and then and only then can us Floridians take action (stay or go) based on the revised cone.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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On the last few frames of the infrared, is very obviously east of the forecast points... How long does a motion like this have to continue before it can no longer be dismissed as just a wobble?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I agree. Nothing is certain right now. Tomorrow late or even into Friday before something definite (maybe not even by then) is kinda known. Everyone on the Florida Gulf Coast should be watching this closely and be prepared to act on short notice.
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Michael
PWS
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
The is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Yes but the last run before the outlier had it going to Sanibel/Charlotte Harbor. Now it's over Flamingo. Big difference for those of us in SWFL.
...True, but Wima will be unusually large and potent at unusual distances from her core by the time she gets to the latitude of say Miami... At that point, she may very well have doubled the surface area affected by both her tropical storm force wind field, as well as her hurricane force windfield.. And, at 130mph she will likely be able to a considerable amount of damage in a very wide swath.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
On the last few frames of the infrared, is very obviously east of the forecast points... How long does a motion like this have to continue before it can no longer be dismissed as just a wobble?
Does anyone have a current graphic showing the forecast points and the actual track? I would love to see the current track vs. forecast to this point.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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i would say 6 hours worth but thats just me, i see what u see and i think it isnt just a wobble right now, we shall know soon.
the back in line makes me think it was a fluke thing. the 2 bams should follow suit in their next runs
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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So overall were the models contaminated or just stumped by the stall? Does the take all the models into consideration or only a select few? Are all the models computer generated? ok Ive asked enough questions.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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I was wondering if anyone had a spaghetti model of all the new (post 5:00) updated model consensus?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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go to wunderground and and then forecast verification try that
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
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After looking at the 8 PM Advisory, nothing at all has changed. continues in a West-Northwest direction and the advisory even mentions that if were to cross the Yucatan, it could bring massive surge. What is surprising about this advisory however is that the storm is maintaining Category 5 intenstity and a pressure of 892mb. is clearly going through an based on the latest IR loop and microwave imagery, however, a wind field expansion or weakening has not taken place. This is an odd feature, but that just follows suit. This whole system has been odd.
Concerning the track, I read a few posts saying that nothing has happened to change the forecast reasoning today. There have been a lot of reasons. One main reason is that strong upper level low that was supposed to drive northward is moving way too fast and far too north. It's not going to have an influence on . The only factor that can drive north and then rapidly east, is a deep upper-layer trough that will be digging down into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is some uncertainity of when the timing of that trough will occur. It is becoming more likely that the trough will not make it in time to pull to the north, which will mean this will be a no-event for Florida and have a catastrophic impact on the Yucatan pennisula. However, if it does dig down far enough the storm will be swept rapidly east, which makes an extreme southern Florida landfall likely.
Things are still looking better for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida. But, it all depends on the timing. If the storm picks up speed, it will be picked up by that trough a little latter and that could push it farther north on the Florida pennisula. But, once again that is a highly unlikely scenario. If it continues at this slow pace, and possibly slow down even further (as it is forecasted to do), the trough may miss the system completely, or sweep the system directly east (sharp right hand turn) once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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When will the models update next?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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as far as i know, the uses the (its model) and the superensemble which is a ensemble of all the models at least the globals.
diff models update at diff times and have to be found at diff places
some not in spag models
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Joe B just made an appearance on Bill O' Riley's show and is still talking about a landfall between Tampa Bay and Key West. They made reference to the citrus industry and the close proximity to harvest time. My trees are loaded with nice large navel oranges and honey tangelos. I sure wish would get a taste for fish.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
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Clark in your opinion do you think this new run is old or has it factored in the new Northwest motion? I believe that we will not no till tomorrow when the new runs factor in the steering currents in GMEX and the High pressure system in the atlantic.... .
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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I think this 8pm advisory was more of a position estimate than a intensity and track update
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Quote:
After looking at the 8 PM Advisory, nothing at all has changed. continues in a West-Northwest direction and the advisory even mentions that if were to cross the Yucatan, it could bring massive surge. What is surprising about this advisory however is that the storm is maintaining Category 5 intenstity and a pressure of 892mb. is clearly going through an based on the latest IR loop and microwave imagery, however, a wind field expansion or weakening has not taken place. This is an odd feature, but that just follows suit. This whole system has been odd.
Concerning the track, I read a few posts saying that nothing has happened to change the forecast reasoning today. There have been a lot of reasons. One main reason is that strong upper level low that was supposed to drive northward is moving way too fast and far too north. It's not going to have an influence on . The only factor that can drive north and then rapidly east, is a deep upper-layer trough that will be digging down into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is some uncertainity of when the timing of that trough will occur. It is becoming more likely that the trough will not make it in time to pull to the north, which will mean this will be a no-event for Florida and have a catastrophic impact on the Yucatan pennisula. However, if it does dig down far enough the storm will be swept rapidly east, which makes an extreme southern Florida landfall likely.
Things are still looking better for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida. But, it all depends on the timing. If the storm picks up speed, it will be picked up by that trough a little latter and that could push it farther north on the Florida pennisula. But, once again that is a highly unlikely scenario. If it continues at this slow pace, and possibly slow down even further (as it is forecasted to do), the trough may miss the system completely, or sweep the system directly east (sharp right hand turn) once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Yeah thats pretty much what alot of the mets in Tampa are saying now. Hmm thats really good news if it plays out.. Are you a met or a met hobbyist or both?
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
After looking at the 8 PM Advisory, nothing at all has changed. continues in a West-Northwest direction and the advisory even mentions that if were to cross the Yucatan, it could bring massive surge. What is surprising about this advisory however is that the storm is maintaining Category 5 intenstity and a pressure of 892mb. is clearly going through an based on the latest IR loop and microwave imagery, however, a wind field expansion or weakening has not taken place. This is an odd feature, but that just follows suit. This whole system has been odd.
Concerning the track, I read a few posts saying that nothing has happened to change the forecast reasoning today. There have been a lot of reasons. One main reason is that strong upper level low that was supposed to drive northward is moving way too fast and far too north. It's not going to have an influence on . The only factor that can drive north and then rapidly east, is a deep upper-layer trough that will be digging down into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is some uncertainity of when the timing of that trough will occur. It is becoming more likely that the trough will not make it in time to pull to the north, which will mean this will be a no-event for Florida and have a catastrophic impact on the Yucatan pennisula. However, if it does dig down far enough the storm will be swept rapidly east, which makes an extreme southern Florida landfall likely.
Things are still looking better for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida. But, it all depends on the timing. If the storm picks up speed, it will be picked up by that trough a little latter and that could push it farther north on the Florida pennisula. But, once again that is a highly unlikely scenario. If it continues at this slow pace, and possibly slow down even further (as it is forecasted to do), the trough may miss the system completely, or sweep the system directly east (sharp right hand turn) once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Hi Zack.. Yeah, I agree with all of this but would just like to add that the u/a low that you have in mentioned, we don't really need that to be the impetus here... Fact is, we'd likly get a NNE acceleration without this initial pull... I posted a number of reason just recently so I'm a little down with longwinded typing for now  ... Anyway, gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out; perhaps a great learning example for interaction with the westerlies.
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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What do you think the NW motion would do to the track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
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Quote:
Yeah thats pretty much what alot of the mets in Tampa are saying now. Hmm thats really good news if it plays out.. Are you a met or a met hobbyist or both?
I am actually in college studying to be a met.
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