FLHurricane.com: Wilma - Signs of Change

But not too much of a change. Hurricane is still in the middle of a rather lengthy eyewall replacement cycle and I'd anticipate a much larger eye later this evening. With sustained winds of 125 knots, she is still a major hurricane and I think that she will maintain a steady state in intensity for the next 48 hours.

Wilma has slowed considerably during the past few hours and her orientation on satellite suggests that a change to a more northwesterly motion may soon begin. This would move very close to the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula by sunrise on Friday morning. The wind field has expanded and hurricane force winds are likely over the northeast Yucatan even if she stays just offshore. should be moving in more of a northerly direction as she brushes past the Yucatan (or briefly makes landfall there).

By Friday afternoon the forward motion should become north northeast and eventually northeast on a path that will drive her toward south Florida. Westerly winds aloft, previously along the north Gulf coast have shifted south into the northern Gulf so a turn to the northeast is quite likely. The magnitude of this turn - still not yet firm, will determine the exact track across south Florida and the intensity of the storm at landfall.

Right now I'd anticipate a track from near Naples on the west coast to Hobe Sound on the east coast. The timing is also problematic but right now I'd lean toward landfall as a Category II (perhaps a weak Cat III) hurricane at mid-morning on Sunday with exit into the Atlantic by late Sunday afternoon - still as a Category I hurricane. This path 'could' mean strong tropical storm force winds in the Melbourne area with hurricane force winds to the south - but its still too early to define the anticipated winds for both coasts.

While I'm at it, there is another area in the Atlantic basin that deserves some attention. A tropical wave with a weak circulation center is located east southeast of Barbados near 12N 56W at 20/15Z. The wave showed significant improvement in overall structure last night and it is moving slowly to the west northwest and into an area of lighter wind shear and a slightly more favorable upper air environment. There is a good chance that this system will become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours.
ED