Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I'm not sure to my untrained eye it look like a west of north west turn.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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There was a comment earlier about "laymen being able to get as close as the 'professionals' with no more information than knowledge of where these storms usually go. " Although I personally wouln't go quite that far, there is some truth to using the basics, along with common sense and historical data.
My 83 year old father is a retired ship captain (Master of All Vessels license) and tracked tropical systems for decades at sea using basically nothing more than a barometer, reports from other ships ,and common sense.
Last year as we were being told to evacuate our home here in Tampa because of , my father called and said not to worry that it was going to turn. I asked him why he thought that; and he said (after reading his garage sale barometer on his porch up in north Tampa) "our pressure is rising, it nevers goes up when they're approaching. It must be turning."
A few hours later we started hearing the local mets saying that it looked like it was turning.
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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The last jog 15:45 is more west. It's about to get sunny in Cozumel.
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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Yep, looks like: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropi...b-201N-864W.jpg
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Not quite W of NW... Closer to East of NW or further from land.
Here's an updated graphic:
If I put them in reverse order, it would make updates more efficient, but such is life 
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Geoff, What is your father saying about ?
Kimberley
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
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Geoff what does he thing about ???
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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great updates! it looks like the 6 hour is going to be the path. but the is saying it will head almost directly west from here, i just don't see that happening. man do i want to be wrong about this one!
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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LOL he cant say anything about her yet and he would agree cause he used a barometer reading to see the pressure was rising...and for now,,its going away from florida slightly,,so we cant tell. Then when it moves back over water and starts heading NE then we will have and Idea,, but he wont know if it will hit or miss cause its coming at a different angle then did up ther west coast.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Oct 21 2005 12:32 PM)
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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Looks like is moving more westward now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Updated it again to make it more readable and to make the Full path more distinct.
I think this is as far as I'm going to bother with updating the look. No need to make it pretty - it's just data
Then again, I could gussy up this data something fierce and make it so purty...
/but I won't. Back to work.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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If I was anywhere from Tampa to the Keys, I'd be getting things ready for a possible Cat 3 Monday night/Tuesday. at 12Z shows Cat 3 not that far south of Tampa and deeper than the 6Z. This after sitting on land on the NE Yucatan for 48 hours.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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Can anyone try and figure out what the distance across the yucatan is on the storms current NW path looks like about 70 mi to me.. Trying to figure out if she keeps moving how long she'll be over land.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Max Mayfield made the best point in his conference. He said at the end that no one should focus on the fact that it may be a weakening level 2 as it makes landfall in FL. If there was a TD in the carib that was going to strike while strengthing to a level 2 it would be a "Big Deal". As far as I'm concerned that's a dig on the reporters that most are to ignorant to get. I can't tell you how many times during I heard a reporter saying "she's a weakening storm, not going to be so bad....blah blah blah!
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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so do you think i should reschedule my reservations...i have them set for sunday night....should i go ahead and do monday night...need help...thanks
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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As Governer Bush said after there is no such thing as a minimal hurricane.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Does anyone know of any actual sat maps ( google earth perhaps) that we could see Cozumel through the eye with. I'm sure eventually they will be made but somewhere there may be one right now so I don't have to wait...LOL!
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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Quote:
If I was anywhere from Tampa to the Keys, I'd be getting things ready for a possible Cat 3 Monday night/Tuesday. at 12Z shows Cat 3 not that far south of Tampa and deeper than the 6Z. This after sitting on land on the NE Yucatan for 48 hours.
If it sits on land for that long it's hard to imagine it could get back to a CAT 3 with the westerlies ripping at it, the likely dry air instrusion, and the cooler Gulf temps. How accurate is the in terms of intensity?
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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and look at the spacing...she is definitely slowing down!!! this is great news for tampa 
Quote:
Updated it again to make it more readable and to make the Full path more distinct.
I think this is as far as I'm going to bother with updating the look. No need to make it pretty - it's just data
Then again, I could gussy up this data something fierce and make it so purty...
/but I won't. Back to work.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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I google earthed it earlier....NADA....was a good idea though!
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