Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
oddly even though the computer models and the last track was above where it was before... they have it below look at where it crosses below lake o..... i don't get their forcasting i don't. heh everything is going north and they go south more? confusing
Looks like a "no change" forecast. It was just south of the Big O before. Might as well wait and see if there is continuing trend before changing the forecast. No warnings are up yet, so still have plenty of time.
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Jim
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Radar outage is over for now. With a 3 hour gap, I decided to momentarily let go of the 4 and 6 hour points. Note how close the last two points are? That's as far as she's moved in the last 3 hours. Definitely dragging her heels, this one. What's in the GOM that she's so scared of?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think...and anyone here with more info than I have can correct me..that the models have their information put in about 6 hours prior to their output, so the info may be old.
As far as the reintensification, that was forecasted tonight (at least by my local stations) at 6pm. They said it would "weaken significantly" after it's trek across the Yucatan but "reintensify" once it entered the GOM again. I don't really have a good explanation for that reasoning, though. They didn't really explain "why", if you know what I mean.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Much as being slow is bad for the Yucatan - it is OK by me here in FL - I hope she emerges in the Gulf in a much weakened state
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Data input for the various model runs varies some -- In general if the Model is run every 6 hours the oldest data input can be is 6 hours (just after the last run) but it can be very recent -- With modern supercomputers the runs don't actually take long to produce
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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There will be a window of opportunity for to reintenisfy over the Gulf IF its inner core is still relatively intact after possibly being over land for awhile. If the inner core is too disrupted then that won't happen. Whatever it reintensifies to in the Gulf, it will likely weaken a little again from that as it approaches Florida, because of an increasingly unfavorable upper-level environment, though the suggests otherwise. Because of an increase in forward speed, the max winds may tend to increase on the southern side of the system as it approaches Florida, while decreasing on the northern side.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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Any ideas as to why Pensacola's chance of having this hurricane jumped from a five to a ten percent chance? I mean -- no way, right?
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
Edited by susieq (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:46 PM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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because the time horizon is now smaller. all the percentages went up.
plus it is the chance of the "CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES"
not a direct hit.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Using the Radar image above..thanks, Tpratch.
From present position to the GOM Beach, following the Purple Line. 65nm or 12-13 hours at 5 kts.
Using the last two Points, to the GOM Beach.
55nm or 11 hours at 5 kts.
Noon Tomorrow at the current track and speed. Before 's Center is over the GOM. Give or take an hour and a few miles.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Most models trending North...Any comments?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Grrr...
As soon as I posted that, a new radar image popped up. Her eye is oblong and she wobbled... WWSW... *sigh*
I'll scrap all but the 1hour trend until tomorrow morning and I might just be heading to bed.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Quote:
Using the Radar image above..thanks, Tpratch.
From present position to the GOM Beach, following the Purple Line. 65nm or 12-13 hours at 5 kts.
Using the last two Points, to the GOM Beach.
55nm or 11 hours at 5 kts.
Noon Tomorrow at the current track and speed. Before 's Center is over the GOM. Give or take an hour and a few miles.
Only problem is present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 3 kt
Its not going that fast 
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The models that show the further north solution on that map are generally not reliable and not used for track guidance by . The two models on that map that are cited by in their discussions are the and the UKMET.
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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Quote:
Most models trending North...Any comments?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Will take 2-3 more computer runs before would ever change the track. they are dead set on southern florida. I don't buy it to be honest.. Usually wherever they predict first is where it doesn't go. We'll see what happens though.
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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What thay say on WC, after turn on the way to FLA, will be much faster moving storm, probably 25-30 mph over FLA, maybe more .. what will give us about 6 hours of strong wind ....
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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Quote:
The models that show the further north solution on that map are generally not reliable and not used for track guidance by . The two models on that map that are cited by in their discussions are the and the UKMET.
gfdl is trending north now.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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But they (GFDL)are trending North of earlier tracks... Not "wishcasting" just noticing
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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Quote:
But they (GFDL)are trending North of earlier tracks... Not "wishcasting" just noticing
i agree.. But really nobody knows, i don't think anything is definite on florida landfall.. still could be tampa or could be naples. there has been nothing shown yet on why it wouldn't go north or south... imo it's just relative to how far it goes north before the front influences it...
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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NHC forecast is still for landfall near Marco Island......no change.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Until this thing gets off of the Yucatan, there are probably going to be some fluctuations in the model tracks. Looks like is finally making its painfully slow move inland.
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