Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Quote:
I saw that. It has it exiting way to close to Melbourne for my taste. Is there a 12Z . I'm not sure when all the models run. I'd be curious to see that one though.
that one is even a little more north then the GDFL.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That could be...the outflow from is huge...but I'm not sure if that's what responsible for it pushing it back to the NW. It is definitely going back towards the NW, though. Just another piece of the puzzle to throw in there, huh? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Alot of disagreement among people on where this will go cause alot want to hear the storm will come close to them. People complain about it hitting down in SW florida when they live in Tampa saying, No it will shift N towards here....then the people down there say the same thing about I Dont want to hear about Tampa cause its staying here........Well people can predict what they want cause until it makes its turn and at what angle ( cause of the angle of the trough digging in) we dont know quite yet.
My forecast is a premature one........I feel with the trough digging to the N central gulf across to Central Florida...the steering flow will be SW-NE...at first a movement N will happen due to the ridge over the SE Bahamas getting fed heat from the TD-TS in the Carribean this ridge (although not very big) will enhance a nearterm N-NNE movement later tonight into Sunday with a bend NE later Sunday into Sunday night...the trough over N-Central Florida will lift to Ocala-Jax as the Hurricane moves NE Sunday night-Monday...
Landfall will be from the mouth of Tampa Bay south to Port Charollete....it could wobble just north over tampa or just south near Ft Myers...... still too early to tell....
The strongest winds will be near and just southeast of the center.....the heaviest rainfall will be near the center and also just N of the center cause of the interaction of the Hurricane and the trough to its N squeezing out the moisture in the Atmosphere........so even if you live 100 miles N of the path,, you will recieve heavy rain and TS winds due to the transition of the hurricane into more of a hybrid system as it leaves Florida.....so the winds will expand near landfall......
Anyways I will update my path late tonight cause things will change and it just matters on how it leaves the Yucitan and how much N or NNE it goes before the bend NE,,, 25N and 85W is the path N or S of where it comes into Florida.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
Quote:
i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....
becky
Me, neither. I'm in Ft. Myers. We have hotel reservations in Orlando and West Palm. Where should we go? When should we leave? What about tornados? Where is that cold front? Should we just head for (OMIGOD) Georgia? Tornadoes scare me more than hurricanes. And now it's flooding on the east coast (Ft. Lauderdale). Help! 
Either Orlando or West Palm would be a good place to go if you end up evacuating. The storm will probably pass closer to Orlando, but that is far enough inland to where conditions should not be too bad. I would try not to worry too much about tornados... even if there are a lot of them, the vast majority of people aren't going to be affected by them. Just be sure to be somewhere that would be a good shelter just in case.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Question: is that front actually there or is that where they think it is? If it is there, is it as deep as they thought it would be? I'm not sure, so I thought I'd ask. Thanks, Geoff!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ThirdRay
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Lakeland, Fl
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....i made hotel reservations for tommorrow and monday night in case it slowed down....we have to cancel by 4pm today if we dont need the room...but we cant afford to just pay for the room if we dont need it....i need some serious advice on what to do....id go with my gut feeling but im torn...and hubby says the same....can you please helppp
becky
The model consensus if for landfall sometime on Monday morning with the system moving quickly off to the NE. The model consensus is also for a track south of Tampa, with the strongest winds on the southern side of the system. Based on the model consensus and the current official forecast, you would not need a hotel room again Monday night, unless you feel your home would be susceptible to damage even from tropical storm conditions. However, if you are going to be stressed out about not having a room Monday night because of the uncertainty involved, you may want to keep it for peace of mind.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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In case anyone has missed it... the 2pm ET advisory on TD 25 indicates that we will probably have Alpha very soon.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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To T12 - essentially the inner core has been spnning around, inside of the outer eyewall, like a ball inside of the rim of a hola hoop, giving a wobbly appearance, but actually is a predictable movement. Now that the center over time has gotten mashed up so to speak, the effect of the oscillation on the storm as a whole was reduced and movement outside of the large eyewall was minimized, but movement inside of it was still oscillating, while over landfall since early this morning. Tpratch's diagram shows the movement a bit when it was approaching the Yucatan (it looks like a series of curves like a bouncing ball). However now as the inner core becomes more disorganzied, even that will become less discernable, and once over water, the larger eyewall will eventually clear out and the radius will decrease.
This is generally only a feature of stronger storms and especially in cases of lopsided circulation.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Once starts moving across the gulf, how fast is she predicted to move? I have heard about 30 mph, is this correct?
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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IMO - Here's the train that's going to move it eastward...ALL ABOARD!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html (look in upper left corner)
Long distance view of the same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
I swear, it seems like some of you are just looking for problems and not at what it is.
It doesn't have to bang it in the side to move it, that just blocks the north and the eastward movement will bring it along sweeping it eastward...
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 221820Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1749Z
B. 21 DEG 13 MIN N
87 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2735 MA
D. 65
E. 045 DEG 60 NM
F. 140 DEG 90 KT
G. 042 DEG 40 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 11 C/ 3061 M
J. 14 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E36/80/60
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A OB 03
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 1739Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Colleen, I've been on this board a while now and I always enjoy your well thought out posts. Just ignore it & keep posting your ideas on this storm. 
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RJB
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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I am new here and have learned a lot and enjoyed reading everyone’s post with their prospective but am really getting burnt out with all the bickering. Everyone knows the old adage concerning opinions. There are professional ways in disagreeing with another ones opinion with out bashing and getting nasty. I am sure I am not the only one here that feels this way.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Once starts moving across the gulf, how fast is she predicted to move? I have heard about 30 mph, is this correct?
Latest model has 's forward speed of 20 mph at west coast of FL landfall.
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RJB
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Noticing the dry air that is usually bad for a hurricane's health, but it would almost appear as is "fighting back" and pushing the dry air back. Is this right?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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When it rains, it pours...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
IMO - Here's the train that's going to move it eastward...ALL ABOARD!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html (look in upper left corner)
Long distance view of the same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
I swear, it seems like some of you are just looking for problems and not at what it is.
It doesn't have to bang it in the side to move it, that just blocks the north and the eastward movement will bring it along sweeping it eastward...
I don't mean to sound argumentative... but....
Using your logic that it doesn't have to bang it in the side to move it... should already be making landfall on the west coast of Florida, because in a sense the front is already blocking movement to the north. As far as the "train" goes... I just don't see it. Are you talking about the little bit of moisture over Texas? Are you talking about the "train" of moisture coming off of and moving across Florida from the Big Bend area south through the Keys? The area over Texas is too far away, and the stuff over Florida is the outflow from . I really don't see anything on that loop to pull the storm northward.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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