Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
i really wish they'd be consistent, because a system with similar to sometimes better structure in the pacific last week remained a depression.
A question.....I know that the 2005 season now officially passes 1933 as the most active season in recorded history. However, due to better observations and satellite technology, is it unreasonable to conclude that 1933 could have had more storms than just 21? I think that many borderline tropical storms that are classified today as a result of more accurate and frequent observations, would have otherwise escaped classification in former years.
yeah, exactly. take a look at the track of lee, or maybe the flurry we had in the bay of campeche. don't think all of those would have been classified in '33. but far as recorded numbers go, this is the bigun. -HF
Edited by Ronn (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:28 PM)
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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I would say that's a fair assumption
Probably very accurate
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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"Multiple Wind Maxima" normally refers to recon flight data in which the plane passes through more than one area with high speed winds.
example. 65-75 mph points A-F
100-110mph points G-I
75-85mph points J-M
110-130 mph points N-P
normally the Eye would come next where the wind typically drops down to near 10mph.
The wind speeds during the remainder of that flight leg would be in reverse.
Hi-lo-Hi-lo and so on.
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Go to this link:
http://www.abcactionnews.com/weather/index.shtml
Click on:
Latest Accu-Weather update
The interesting thing about Titan is the heaviest part of the storm looks to be the north side, with landfall around the Caloosahatchee River, Fort Myers.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The other assumption could hold true also. That they counted storms twice. Meaning they die out and reform and give them a new name.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Please Be VERY Careful with the VIPER and TITAN forecasts.
While I have seen some products that were very accurate. The Advisories are the Official Product and you should use them as the Baseline.
Local NWS Offices would be the next line of information.
The advantage of the Viper and Titan systems would be that they give more frequent updates.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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a 70 mile wide path of destruction. If she were over land right now.
Charley was 10-14 miles wide and was 30miles wide when she made landfall in Mississippi.
Larger Eye= Larger path of destruction and or devastation. Her Eye diameter will probably change prior to Landfall. But I can't recall ever seeing a 70 Mile Wide EYE.
That's usually something that is seen during Eyewall Replacement Cycles-ERC.
I thought I heard that the eye of was about the same Daniel? Maybe I am wrong but I do know was huge.
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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
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That sounds like what on 8 and 13 was showing: the CoC about Ft. Myers, exiting over by Melbourne, and HEAVY rains along the I-4 corridor.
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Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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Quote:
Please Be VERY Careful with the VIPER and TITAN forecasts.
While I have seen some products that were very accurate. The Advisories are the Official Product and you should use them as the Baseline.
Local NWS Offices would be the next line of information.
The advantage of the Viper and Titan systems would be that they give more frequent updates.
I just posted that because someone earlier asked for a link. I don't know much about it and wouldn't rely on it.
No problem with the post. Just clarifying sources~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:44 PM)
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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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How accurate is this radar that you are referring to? I live 1/8 mile south of the Caloosahatchee River - this is scaring me -
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
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Quote:
How accurate is this radar that you are referring to? I live 1/8 mile south of the Caloosahatchee River - this is scaring me -
I wouldn't put much stock in that. It shows the heavier side being the north side which doesn't seem right.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
How accurate is this radar that you are referring to? I live 1/8 mile south of the Caloosahatchee River - this is scaring me -
I wouldn't put much stock in that. It shows the heavier side being the north side which doesn't seem right.
Have you looked at lately? The north side is where the action appears to be to me, at this point. Of course the south side is still partially over land, so that might explain its weakness.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It's been about 74 minutes since the last Vortex.
Satellite imagery through 0015Z. It appears that is consolidating her EYE. I see what looks to be a smaller Eye forming near 22.0N and 86.3W.
Follow the open eye area over the tip of the Yucatan. Now go NE folling the curve. There is an area in the center of the Northern semicircle that appears to be the Center of Circulation now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I'm going to go in and update my graphic, but looking at the cancun radar, and having looked about about 100 consectutive graphics of it, I'd have to say that it almost looks like the "developing" COC is actually the previous eyewall. Although not a strong (green with smatterings of yellow in what used to show yellow/red), it certainly held together as a cohesive, distinct area far beyond what it should have.
The 70nm eye was the outer wind maxima that held constant during the past 36+ hours or so.
I'll update my graphic and then we can see if we're both describing the same thing.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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You can see it on this link pretty good. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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could that still be a remnant of the inner eye it had a while back?
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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I think it is showing more action north of the center due to it merging with the cold front coming down, thus making it a hybrid system and the wind field expanding.
This warm air overflowing on top of the cool air behind the front causing more rain in that area.
But that is just Titan and Viper, just predictions.
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:00 PM)
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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Hurricanes cover a large area. It's unlikely a storm could evade ship and air traffic even in 1933. Of course, there is always an Admiral Halsey who steers his fleet through the center of the same typhoon twice.
full hurricanes maybe. of course sometimes they form well out in the eastern atlantic and die out there, and then there are questionable-nature storms in the subtropics... and the very weak or very flash-in-the-pan storms that move onshore in central america. there is a distribution bias in the historic database (i.e., number of storms on average in different parts of the basin in satellite/modern era vs. the older period). suggests the older data is missing some. great handle by the way. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:27 PM)
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iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 16
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IS IT JUST ME, OR DOES IT LOOK LIKE IS NOW TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
IS IT JUST ME, OR DOES IT LOOK LIKE IS NOW TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST!!!!
It's probably not just you. However, in the last several IR images, the orientation of has actually slanted more poleward, in my opinion. I'm not talking about the COC because I'm having a hard time locating the exact COC on the IR loop, but the elongation from SW to NE that was present earlier has tilted more toward a N/S orientation, it appears. I think some (most?) models forecast a northward track before the northeast turn, and this is probably what is happening.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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