Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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With all the concentration on Florida, let me draw you toward something else the series of models has been consistently showing over the last several runs: a left hook into New England toward the middle of the week. Landfall for could be anywhere between Conneticut and Newfoundland, with the time-average of the models concentrating on Maine. Additionally, the attached intensity guidence indicates that hurricane force winds, possible as high as Category 2, may effect parts of New England.
Now you may continue with your obsessive-compulsive "where is it going to hit in Florida" discussion 
My trigger finger is getting itchy. But since this is discussion related? I'll leave it~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:27 PM)
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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My parents are in a small mobile home in Zephyrhills, Pasco County, northeast of Tampa. Should I be urging them to get out of there at this point? I'm in Melbourne Beach area on east coast, but in a solid house. It doesn't sound like it's going to be any picnic for us here, but should my folks be on their way here tomorrow?
I'm worried--not sure what to do at this point.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Might be a good idea to bring em over to Melbourne. Though, its now or never, and especially since they are in a mobile home, with the chance for hurricane force winds and tornadic activity in that area,
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Wilma is still moving VERY slowly. Any movement that occurs in the next several hours is not going to tell us anything about where it is going to make landfall.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Not to get to far off, I guess I am, Snow Advisory in upstate NY till Sunday
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I'd tend to agree wtih CaneTracker on this one. Although it looks like this area (I'm in Tampa) won't suffer the worse effects of the storm, if I were in a mobile home I think I'd evacuate. I just don't trust them to stand up to the winds. My philosophy is it's always better to be safe than sorry.
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Hard to say that storms over Fl this PM are directly influenced by -- Several severe storms noted on Melb radar are generating various tornado warnings-- including N of Palm Beach and several approaching Orlando -- But looking at motion all are moving almost directly away from to NE -- Not Wrapping around as far outer bands would
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Latest satallite looks like is starting to develop some cold cloud tops again. The dry air that was so visible before is now almost completely covered by convection. Still, probably will take a little more time to work it out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Saw the same thing.Covection it starting to flare up to the north.Worse fear is this thing gets alot stronger.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The storms may be loosely related to . The outflow jet from is probably enhancing the shear a little bit for those storms.
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
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The northern eye wall is really starting to fire up. Motion is real erratic at this point. It all depends how far the trough digs to the south. We will no by 5am ADV.
Edited by Big Tk (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:30 PM)
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tashina
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
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Max on CNN says: eyewall large so changes will be slow.....no estimates of Cancun gusts yet...slow intensification possible over loop current back into major hurricane.....ERC could happen...he's amazed that the small eyewall is still intact.
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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
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Anyone know a good link for the current water temperatures in the GOM?
Edit - here is a kewl place to view some: http://comps.marine.usf.edu/
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:38 PM)
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
The northern eye wall is really starting to firer up. Motion is real erratic at this point. It all depends how far the trough digs to the south. We will no by 5am ADV.
I have a oddball question. What would happen IF the trough does not pick her up? I have seen where there has been at least one time so far that it didnt dip farther south to pick it up.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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gailwarning - always best to error on the side of caution. They are suggesting that Tampa will see 75 mph+ winds.
www.wfts.com/stories/2005/10/051022local.shtml
However, realize it may be more prudent for them to go to a local shelter than for you to run across the state on Sunday as the roads will become full with traffic - especially the I-4 corridor - and the rain is scheduled to start becoming harder and harder.
Of course, only you folks know what is best for your safety.
Take care!
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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The last advisory had the speed near 3 MPH; but if you look at the various loops and compare the time it takes for the eye width to travel over a fixed point it sure appears to me that she's moving faster than that now...
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Northern Semicircle has Really intensified.
A large area of High Cloud Tops. (the White area)
Click on 's center to zoom in.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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SSTs? Sure:
NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
NRL (Navy) Main site: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
NRL Today's 26C+ SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20051022.gif
NRL Today's HHC (more useful than SST): http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051022.gif
Raw SST data: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:37 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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This is updated 2x Day
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Bay News 9 (Pinellas County) has just reported that all previous watches are now warnings.
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Michael
PWS
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