3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
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Dennis Phillips just reported a tornado a few miles south of Naples travelling 70 mph!
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28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch
Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)
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Terry Johnson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
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At the risk of being repetitive, who has the link to the GOM buoys.....lost mine in the last computer crash!
Thanks,
Terry 
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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
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Danny-
The CoC ashore in 6 hr, or the eye wall?
*<Yawn> 'mornin' all. Thought I'd check in- we had a band come thru central Sarasota that rattled the windows about 15 minutes ago.
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Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks Superfly.
I thought I was seeing things there for a moment.
Look at the temp. and dew point changes in the area of the 130kt reading.
??Convective Tower???
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
130kts winds found at flight level which is equal to 135MPH surface. Latest vortex 955mb. This is in the SE quad so if the Keys experience the eyewall...
Wow, didn't expect that.
The windfield from this storm is going to be very uneven from location to location.
I just switched from long range to short range on the Key West radar and was wondering the same thing myself. They're about to get the strong rainband but beyond that you can see the eyewall, only it is hard for me to tell if the storm is moving more nly, and where that eyewall will be in relation to the keys.
Looks from the recon though that she is done intensifying.
I can't stay up any more; I'm so exhausted.
I'm guessing that if the Keys get hit with a high surge it will be spectacularly documented by the TV reporters down there (hopefully they've moved everything off the truck and into the third floor of some sturdy building!).
By the time I get going tomorrow I will come back to see offshore; then starts the concern for New England.
Is there anyone here who doesn't have hurricane burnout by now?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Center of Circulation.
I'll try the math on the Eyewall.
With the new wind speed readings it won't make much difference.. 
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DrMos
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
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Observed track is deviating north of the track in a significant way now.
NHC track vs. observed
If this trend persists looks like CoC crosses Bonita Beach.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
At the risk of being repetitive, who has the link to the GOM buoys.....lost mine in the last computer crash!
Thanks,
Terry
They're all out of commission. The closest are Dry Tortugas and Key West, neither of which report wave info.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Just remember NOAA; they have an excellent site map.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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That wind reading may not be considered representative, since the eyewall in that area of the storm has recently developed a kink in it (on radar, which may be temporary), indicating the possibility of a meso-vortex. I guess we'll find out what thinks in the next advisory.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:40 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Margie, I have thought this thing was done intensifying on at least three different occasions, but it always seems to start back up again. It does seem that the SSW eyewall is getting very thin on radar.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay using 30nm as the radius of the EYE.
109nm-30nm=79nm to go For The EyeWall
At the current speed of 20.6mph that gives 4.4hours.
Added to the last Vortex. This gives a rough estimate of 1018Z or 618AM EDT...Daylight?
This is hypothetical again...just rough arithmetic.
Thanks for link to the course vs Present course.
You people are great. And I'm starting to drag a bit.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The eye is so large it extends practially from Marco to Key West.
Like has been emphasizing, the exact location of landfall is kind of a moot point. This is the same problem everyone had with ...thinking smaller, because the eye was so large it was hard to reconcile with previous hurricane experiences. Of course was a monster, this one is not, but Kat's eye was only around 30nm wide, is twice that.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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WFUS52 KMLB 240646
TORMLB
FLC097-240730-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0028.051024T0645Z-051024T0730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CELEBRATION...WEST LAKE TOHO...SAINT
CLOUD...NARCOOSSEE...KISSIMMEE...INTERCESSION CITY...HOLOPAW...EAST
LAKE TOHO
* UNTIL 330 AM EDT
* AT 239 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT ROTATION NEAR HOLOPAW...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
HARMONY BY 250 AM EDT
NARCOOSSEE BY 315 AM EDT
SAINT CLOUD AND EAST LAKE TOHO BY 320 AM EDT
WEST LAKE TOHO...KISSIMMEE BY 330 AM EDT
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Margie and Thunderbird12.
In the last 2 years here I have learned that "Never Say Never, When dealing with the Weather." It's funny but very very True.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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well, has arrived here in 34202....the wind is howling constantly now, and the rain has been pouring for a good hour or 2. i can't even imagine what it is like down south. omg.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Looks to like alot of drier air is beginning to intrude on in the backside
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I am seeing 'check digits' in the dew point readings from the aircraft in right now.
Not all of the readings, but quite a few.
Apparently it throws a "check digits" when the temperature and dew point are the same.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Key West is getting absolutely pounded right now. Just saw some video. WOW.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Night, all. Enjoyed your company as usual...just can't stay up any longer.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Superfly...What's up with these numbers???
They keep going higher and higher!
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