craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I know one thing for sure, very few people in SE FL are paying attention to the tropics right now. This would be a huge psychological blow ala & Jeanne. I know the LBAR doesn't do very well but it did have the general trend with , just to far north. The A98E bothers me more. Have power at work (downtown West Palm Beach) same grid as water plant I think. Tower Crane came down about 4 blocks from here, just missed a condo.No power at home in Stuart.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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scott reading your post just gave me a migrane
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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To really get your head pounding look at the 12Z runs of the ,GFS,& UKMET..CMC & Ukmet have been consistent...didn't see the 6z run of so I don't know if this scenario is a 1st or not.
Take them with a grain of salt...although nothing surprises me about this hurricane season anymore.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I agree with Margie... Beta is definitely feeling some shear from the east, regardless of what the shear analysis might show. The convective tops from the outer band to the east are blowing towards the center, which is not a healthy sign for a tropical system. Slow development is still possible while that continues, but it won't take off unless the shear is lessened at some point.
Currently, it appears the system is being gently tugged to the north. However, as the shortwave to its north passes well to the NE, the steering from that feature will cease. The stronger-than-expected easterly flow at some level that is shearing the system presently may help to push it west after that.
Of the more reliable models (LBAR and 98E are not reliable), only the models shows a definite movement to the north into the Gulf. The 12Z UKMET is further north than the /GFDL, but still brings the system west along the Honduran coast. It seems to lose the system after that, so it is hard to say where it would go from there. The bottom line here is that if it turns west into Nicaragua, then it will not affect the U.S.. If the center gets north of the Honduran coastline, then all bets are off.
A recon plane should be into the system soon to give us the first true reading of the current intensity and structure.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Recons been in...just waiting on the VDM.
ETA>>>991 mb...good banding...47kt ne quad.
Edited by twizted sizter (Fri Oct 28 2005 02:56 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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URNT12 KNHC 281854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/18:30:00Z
B. 13 deg 10 min N
081 deg 04 min W
C. 850 mb 1368 m
D. 40 kt
E. 66 deg 010 nm
F. 147 deg 047 kt
G. 063 deg 015 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 21 C/ 1523 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0126A BETA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 18:25:10 Z
GOOD BANDING
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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It's in...and Beta a little healthier than I had thought (991mb, 5deg temp diff, recon comment "good banding").
Revisiting Beta's convection woes...I think it is also the proximity of the tropical wave, affecting development, in a way that is not clearly visible on the satellite, since all wind interaction can't really be captured in that way (visible from sat imagery), and not just the shear.
Also that high that formed early this morning has gotten a little stronger (it is now around 16N74W), and that is what is pushing the easterlies into Beta and also keeping the convection from the tropical wave rotating away to the SE.
More and more chance of Beta moving N and just grazing Nic/Hon area.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Subsidence from the convection in the wave to the NE may also be adversely affecting Beta, or at least may have adversely affected it earlier when the convection was closer to Beta and more intense.
The recon fix is slightly NE of the 18Z position estimate and also seems to be a little NE of where most models were initializing the storm. It still needs to get above 15N before it would stand a chance of missing Nicaragua.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 28 2005 03:08 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I don't think it is going to miss it...but remember the NE corner is flat, so if it goes over that way and keeps going north, not too much of an impact.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm going to keep hedging on beta moving onshore nicaragua. i think it'll do it in spite of whatever else may be going on around it... too much model consensus showing the westward turn, and there already seems to be a bend nw in the track today. should move onshore further north, closer to the honduras/nicaragua border, and move west in such a fashion as to remain onshore and weaken. may get gummed up and stop just a little inland as there's a chance that low pressure will try to form further east and northeast with the lesser shear and wave energy being banked into the eastern edge of beta's envelope. like some have said and even a disco or two mentioned, some degree of binary interaction is likely, whether the other feature develops or not. beta has had a hard time strengthening so far, so this may have already happened to a degree (91L to the east perhaps kinking the trades up and weakening convergence around beta). the models are showing less of an energy hand-off to the mid latitudes now, so whatever ends up in the nw caribbean, whether a vestige of 91L or beta or perhaps something else entirely... may get stuck up there for a day or three.. waiting on another amplification in the westerlies to pick it up. i'd say that the best bet right now is that beta moves inland and that the feature up there doesn't quite have what it takes to develop, but there's still a chance of another feature forming, or beta getting far enough north to lodge in the nw caribbean.
the wave near 45w needs to be watched for days down the road. it's going to be moving into the caribbean in a couple of days under favorable upper-air conditions, and already has a decent gyre and occasional spotty convection. the globals track it though none are developing it, but i'd suspect that in the first few days of november we'll have at least an invest out of this one as well.
i'm not going to sound the trumpet for the season ending any time soon. we're in positive which favors stronger global trades and an enhanced subtropical ridge. with the blocking setting up in eastern europe that the Accuweather guys were talking about yesterday, it figures that ridging near the east coast will start setting up shop in the coming week or two. such a thing tacked onto the existing subtropical ridge which has been keeping the caribbean active would perhaps open the gate for any caribbean mischief to come harass the u.s. (in reduced late-season form, of course). florida needs to keep an eyeball on the caribbean for the next week or two, at least.
HF 1935z28october
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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OK, feeling much better. Until that last sentence anyway...LOL! Thanks HF
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Nice input Frank, agree with the way you are thinking , till Beta makes that turn West still could be a problem more north , hope not.
Dave
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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well...it's like the battle of the under dogs and the power hogs in the 18Z run...
the typically poorer performing NAM, CLIPER, and LBAR now to varying degrees (errr, impetus on "varying") keep beta off-shore of the nic/hon nexus... meanwhile, all other models, which range from typically somewhat better to stellar by comparison, they're all happily clustered around the westward track... 2002 patriots?
synoptic reasoning isn't changing save details in any alarming way so in the end, it will probably (for me) come down to the amplitude of ridging n - what's new - and less on those westward track philosophies, which seem to be exercising the might of beta drift perhaps too myopically. what other reason is there for them having failed to turn w now for i think it is 18 hours worth of runs - check that, but i'm fairly certain they are belated and one must wonder why. ...just looking for clues to answer, and the differences seem to be related to model design.
i think it safe to say that the trough currently scraping by to the n is guilty of inducing the n tug in the last 24 hours, which it is important to note, was not seen by the w tended model camp of runs. that should mean something significant if your in the business of correcting..et al. basically, we can conclude with a certain air of confidence that if there is impetus to allow it out of the deep latitudes, it's gonna take it... that sort of charges the w moving camp of runs with the responsibility of being damn sure that whatever will induce that w motion, is enough. probably will be, ultimately, but they've failed in the responsibility for 3 time intervals now.. but as a cop-out compromise, somewhere between the and the BAM runs will probably suffice.
that's bad bad bad... the thing is...such a trajectory is a floody one... not enough to make it a non-entity so heavy rain/slow mover plagues. just a possibility.
in the end, (for me) beta has about 18 more hours before whatever ridge expression nne east begins to re-assert an influence...until that time, i don't see really how this can establish the long awaited w motion.. as noted in an earlier discussion, there is a correlation between the size of a circulation and the amount of beta effect actually effects the motion of a TC. that being said...beta's been a small circulation to this point; it just may be that those other runs, which do carry beta parameterizations as a component (particularly talking about the BAM cluster) are biased in that regard and thus too apt to a w motion...
don't worry you floridians! i am by no means using this to imply that florida or the se u.s. will or won't be impacted.. i'm simply looking at the w motion guidance and asking 'why'... i could blindly follow the model solutions but i don't see the steering depth for borderline TS/cat 1 hurricane, really in a hurry to do that w motion until after 18 hours, and even then it is not really a very strong implication...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Could someone look at the Carib sat and tell me if that is a low pressure rolling up the NE coast of South America towards the Caribbean, and explain the significance?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Could someone look at the Carib sat and tell me if that is a low pressure rolling up the NE coast of South America towards the Caribbean, and explain the significance?
Hi Margie... It is indeed a closed-circulation...of what?? It's got all the halmarks of an upper level cold core low, in that these granular showery patterns are loosely strewn about it's axis, and, as I've been watching them occasionally today, they seemed to increase with diurnal heating. The other thing, the visible imagery shows almost a flat non-eventful trade wind in the llv's, also as is usually the look when we have a lower latitude cool core features.
The only trouble is, what was the origin?? I'm perplexed with that, because I watched this feature come from the deeper tropics - no if-and-or-buts about that and in fact, it was previously associated with a very deep convection in the cenral Atlantic near 10N Wow, ay? That I'm aware, hasn't given any mention to it so we can assume they must know but don't see it as even interesting enough to mention? I think it is just fascinating anyway. The thing is, there is an interesting looking wave ENE of there...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 28 2005 05:26 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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That's not what I'm wanting to know.
I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.
It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.
BTW on the site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but is still going to refer to it as 91L?
I think the Caribbean should put up a sign at the Lesser Antilles that says, "LOT FULL." I don't think we can fit anything else into the Caribbean at this time.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Oct 28 2005 05:42 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
That's not what I'm wanting to know.
I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.
It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.
BTW on the site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but is still going to refer to it as 91L?
Oh...I see... well, in that case.. not sure what the implications will be but in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win... If it barrels along and tumbles into the western caribbean, it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....
As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive; that is, should the unlikely occur with the u/a low, that it would careen smartly into Beta's vicinity...
...the models do not really show this feature too well and so it is unclear if/what/when/how it will interact with any activity further down the line. However, with a deep layer subtropical ridge N and NW tending to gain amplitude, it would probably tend this feature on a continued W or perhaps slightly WNW heading.. It would interesting really, because it would likely then have to slow down near the Puerto Rico to Cuban Archipelago area and spin for awhile - if not spin down.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 28 2005 05:56 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
I think the Caribbean should put up a sign at the Lesser Antilles that says, "LOT FULL." I don't think we can fit anything else into the Caribbean at this time.
yeah...i think no kidding! wow... but, you know...if i didn't know any better i'd suggest this feature isn't moving as fast as it was earlier in the day..so, the assertion about stalling much w or wnw would have to be in peril. anyway, it is interestingly not being considered if you ask me (i think you may feel the same way?) because, there is always the potential that it could acquire subtropical, then tropical characteristics if left to spin unperturbed over very warm oceanic heat content for awhile... just a thought.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm wondering what the AF1 model is. I can't find it on any sites that go through what the models are, and I'm curious given that Beta has been ignoring most of the model tracks as it drifts about off South America heading slowly nw to nnw.
I'm asking becuase AF1I is tracking Beta north toward Cuba and intensifying it well beyond the other models, bringin Beta to a 110kt hurricane in 72 hours: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
--RC
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win...it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....
As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive
Well that is an appropriately grisly scenario for a Halloween storm LOL.
Thanks for the info, I saw that and thought hmmm...figured it was something to follow up on.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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