MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Looks like an upper low is forming just east of Epsilon and an outflow jet might be developing on the east side of Epsilon, causing a real flare up of convection...it might make hurricane 'officially' tonight, after a while the low should hurt Epsilon more than help, but right now...it is helping.
So it appears...feedback is welcome! :?:
MM
Or maybe not...now looks like it is falling apart...but the comvection off S America looks like it is turnin' and burning...and gaining latitude...I see a flare up in EastPac too, altho very limited...MJO time?
MM 
Edited by MapMaster (Thu Dec 01 2005 07:09 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
3.87 N, 47.10 weat at @1800 12/1....very low, but if it gains latitude...some very fierce convection about to skim north coast of S. America...-80 tops or colder just n of the 'center'...what's up with this?
MM
I saw that this aft and wondered what could come of it as well, if anything. The remainder of the Carib has been pretty quiet this week, for the most part (I'm sure to the relief of Cuba and Central America).
Quote:
Or maybe not...now looks like it is falling apart...
Actually it looks like it is on the upswing again now. Looking at the wv loop, the center has cleared out and convection is starting to build and wrap around again, even though it continues to be vulnerable to the drier air from the west.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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Either way, looks like they don't want to name this thing a hurricane. The visible images this afternoon showed a well-defined eye+circulation, and higher cloud tops... I was pretty sure the 5 AST advisory would pin epsilon as cat. 1. They did move it to 70, but the satellite images and estimates thought we had hurricane number 14 too. Maybe doesn't want to break every darn record in a season 
However, the most recent ir/water vapor images show the south west of the storm being taken over by drier air (i think), and it'll be a "miracle of tropical cyclones" if it gets it's act together and becomes a 65 knotter.
Maybe cindy will be designated as a hurricane in the post analysis, and emily-possibly cat. 5?-Interesting stuff, those year-end reviews.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Interesting, given all the power storms this year, the only one that affected us here in MD was Cindy.
It also isn't long before the preditions for next year are out. That, combined with Typhoon Tip's comments on the SSTs around Greenland, promise to make this winter an interesting one.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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It's now a hurricane,I ran out of words for this season.So I will let others comment on this insane season.Waiting for the 2006 forcast on Dec 6th.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Actually it looks like it is on the upswing again now.
HF hope you're watchin'... Hurricane Epsilon!
The organization has really improved overnight, with the continuation of a distinct spiral band, and from sat images it can be seen that by early morning convection wrapped completely around the center, which for the first time looks without question like an eye, and also for the first time a considerable amount of outflow can be seen as well. The eye is starting to cloud over, so this phase might be pretty short-lived. However Epsilon looks completely tropical at this point. Without starting a big hassle...it always appeared to me that Epsilon continued to be subtropical because it had not completely acquired tropical characteristics, even though convection was always being maintained close to the center. But now the outflow is starting to show up as anticyclonic motion at 100-250mb levels for the first time, as just a little deviation from the westerlies, on the north side of the cyclone, where the strongest outflow is occuring.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Thankfully it's just a fish spinner but wow, can you beleive it? I'm looking outside here and we've had a foot of snow in the last 3 hours and hurricanes are STILL occuring.
Hell, why not just keep the hurricane season going 365 days a year from now on lol. Goes much longer and we'll be into next season. 
I changed my signature to reflect the season we've had. 
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I read that 97% of all hurricanes form between June & November. I guess we're watching the other 3%.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Dec 02 2005 10:41 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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epsilon just kicked the numbers a littler higher, but they may go higher yet without any more activity.
the november monthly report includes some end-of-season factoids that are interesting and may skew the numbers a little more. apparently the is considering post-analyzing cindy as a minimal hurricane (we were talking about that back in july when it flared a little stronger just before landfall and doppler estimates and recon wind reductions suggested that it briefly produced hurricane force winds). the peak of emily is also being reconsidered, as per the operational note that it may have been a category 5 for a brief period in the caribbean at the time. there is also the issue of the hrd guys wanting to down at landfall a category based on their research. i'll be interested to read the post season report, as it looks like vince will remain as operationally analyzed a tropical depression at landfall in spain... in spite of some surface reports that were very close to t.s. strength. no word on what they plan to do about delta, but i have suspcions there too.
saw a picture of the hurricane center board in an AP story earlier (no link). on the board cindy was upgraded to a hurricane, emily was still a cat 4, and 's max winds were just a tad higher (185 mph). it looks like the number of hurricanes will be skewed just a little higher, at least.
HF 1741z02december
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Hmm, HF...don't think you meant 185 on ....or did you mean ??
MM
oh yeah...it might have been 185 before it got in the Gulf....too many storms!!
Edited by MapMaster (Fri Dec 02 2005 02:29 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The TPC 4pm discussion about the model tracks was very droll. I like how the season is winding down:
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN NOT BE SAID FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
...
HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE ...GFS ENSEMBLE... ... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I've got a pretty good hunch we'll see Cindy upgraded to a hurricane in the best-track data...
In any case, that'd make 15 hurricanes -- and if Delta gets upgraded, which probably isn't as likely, 16 hurricanes -- just adding to the overall numbers.
Quite possibly, Epsilon will be the last storm on the board for 2005. The tropics aren't really condusive to anything and a large blocking low toward the NW of Epsilon isn't ready to let go, making any future subtropical/tropical development in the northern Atlantic unlikely after Epsilon is gone. Then again, Epsilon may just hang around instead of head off into the great blue yonder and go -- not quite sure on that. The more northward motion that I thought about a few days ago hasn't really panned out and I don't see anything that would result in it doing so unless that low were to kick out toward the east. Nevertheless, here we are on December 2nd with a hurricane in the basin.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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It lokks like...can it be?
A disturbance forming sw of Mex in the EastPac.hhhmmm Well, in this SOBR (hat tip to Margie), whyyyy not?
MM
(EastPac posts belong in the Other Storm Basins Forum)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 02 2005 11:50 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Just checked SSD and the model runs. Interesting movements on Epsilon...
NOGAPS and are sending Epsilon into a loop-d-loop mode with it moving south then west again early next week.
UKMET wraps it north and absorbs it into an extra-tropical system.
CMC doesn't do much of anything...
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(Off topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 02 2005 11:52 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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(Post deleted in error)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Dec 02 2005 11:57 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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no telling - by the end of the loop it is about due south of where it is now - and that's 6 days out.
Also, look at the SSMIS Microwave pass - it clearly shows 2/3rds of an eyewall existing:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/29L.EPSILON/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html
Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Dec 02 2005 08:21 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well, it would appear that for the second (third?) evening in a row, drier air is eating into Epsilon's spiral band into the center.
You know, it just occured to me...we need a Zeta, we absolutely do. Because we have seen everything this season, haven't we? So we should be able to say that for once, we have seen everything from A to Z. Fate would not let this once-in-a-lifetime literary opportunity pass us by. And we can't use phrases like, "Everything but the kitchen sink," as thousands of kitchen sinks must have been sent travelling by Kat's surge alone...
* * * * * * *
Found the big board photo, and it is attached. It looks like they ran out of white letters, especially the number 5 (LOL there is even one green 5, probably pulled from one forecaster's fridge or something).
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Frankly, given how few years have X, Y, and Z, why can't we use those letters also? We could have Xena and Xavier, Yelsta and Yuri, and Zelda and Zed. And, unless you have to retire one, we can always alternate between years.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Want a good laugh? Go look at the latest sat loop. Eps has been going due east, and will miss the 2nd track forecast point. Can't wait to see the morning track forecast.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Good ol' Ep is looking better than ever and headed south of the track...how long it hang on?!
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