Bloodstar
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*grins* you said more clearly what I was touching on. this is a 'shallow' system. therefore the typical rules do not apply. you won't need as much warmth in the waters, as you don't need as much lift. and upper level shear just flat out misses the storm. I still think a hurricane won't form like this, but once something like this forms. it's going to chug along, Ironicly, heading into warmer waters could be bad for Epsilon, as it could find itself more vulnerable to the upper level shear that's lurking.
I really was half asleep when I posted last night. I'm amazed anyone could even decipher the post! 
-Mark
half asleep... i like that excuse. very familiar with how that feels.... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Dec 05 2005 11:06 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Hi Folks...
I thought you might want to delve into this ...if you have not already that is..
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/dec2005/
So...I Agree with HankFrank's earlier post regarding the "purist" nature of Epsilon.
It is important to note that Epsilon developed in the belly of a negative anomaly, a teleconnected (statistically favored result) weakness in the subtropical height field, for having a fairly powerful -NAO signal across the N Atlantic. Typical positive height fields existing near or above 50N latitude in the Atlantic have a dipolar negative near the latitude of the Azores and extending W across a good bit of the Atlantic Basin. In addition, this took place earlier than normal (...for those who have good fundemental awareness of climate, they know that the -NOA exerts a bigger influence during cold season months...), which aided in causing enhanced instability over a regional scale in that region.
A negative 30-40N anomaly associated with the -NAO: What this means in lay terms is that the SFC to upper altitude delta-T and dew point differentials "mock" the typical tropical sounding that you find over an 80F, truer tropical SST and associated tropospheric sounding. Clark has hammered this point in the past, and how lower SSTs can be sufficient in these rare circumstances.. That means/meant that the thermodynmic gradients were in sufficient measure/instability for the physics to play out like it were a truer tropical sounding - it is rare for this to happen; amazing to have it happen twice in a season like this!
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Dec 06 2005 12:22 AM)
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Bloodstar
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So the 4am Advisory came out, and Epsilon is still a Hurricane, though there's a break in the eyewall on the southeast (there's been weakness off and on throughout the day and evening). could Epsilon finally be weakening? I'm not holding my breath at this moment, mostly because as the discussion pointed out, the really REALLY likes this storm. It's keeping it as a hurricane for several days. Of course The forecasters won't go with a solo model, and I can't blame them. But this storm has already happily ignored every effort to dissapate it, so we shall see.
I wonder what the is 'seeing' that's caused it. Looking at the Graphic output, the storm weakens after 72 hours, then regains strength and accelerates to the NE, then starts drifting back to the southwest at the end, still as a hurricane. (well, takes it and moves it to cold core, then rapidly back to warm core according to phase analysis).
I'm not saying that will validate out, but if it does, I can only imagine the darth vader scream of 'nooooooooo' coming from the . (that or their brains have long since turned to mush from trying to understand this 'Terminator' storm. (I know there have been storms that have lasted longer, but were they constantly predicted to go away, only to defy all predictions and projections?)
looking at the out put, it seemingly dissapates Epsilon, at around 72 hours, but, 24 hours another low is built near where the storm would be if validated (off to the North East) and pushes it southwest as a fairly strong system. (looking at the phase analysis, the new storm is a 'cold core system according to )
NOGAPS is doing something wacky, with the storm, looks like another low picked it up and absorbs it around 84 hours.
CMC is claiming that epsilon is nearly cold core right now... interesting.
Either way, almost all the models are predicting a low pressure out near the Azores in about 5 days.
This quote from the 4AM discussion made me smile:
"I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT."
Sums things up well, no?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Sums things up? How about giving up. Last night was very interesting, watching Epsilon almost fall apart and then recover, and it must hold a clue as to what is causing the storm to maintain. Maybe there are too many things to say instead of not enough, but without recon no way to settle on the appropriate ones. What happened last night can't exactly be summed up as "continuing on steady state," even though the convection did successfully rebuild around the eye. What occured last night isn't the same as what happened on the other evenings, with convection simply waning and then building up again. Avila must have his theories about the nature of this storm, regardless.
Epsilon does look a little different this morning. The outflow is not as prominent and shear is more evident, the eye seems a little smaller, and I am wondering if, despite the apparent good organization, if the LLC is completely coupled with the convection.
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HanKFranK
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starting to see resistance at the outflow levels to the northwest. fast upper winds are finally starting to bite into the circulation. track might go weird from the official as it tries to compensate. either way, expect epsilon to start really coming apart later today, spin down by thursday.
bloodstar has a point about the upper air low shown out in the eastern atlantic. a piece of the oncoming trough is forecast to break off by most models, get trapped out there for a few days. profile looks nothing like detla or epsilon, so we ought not see another storm rapidly spin up out there. basic pattern remains so the idea that another could slowly evolve is valid.
sw caribbean is showing a pattern-induced low over the weekend/early next week north of panama. should be a little ridging down there, with a steering ridge blasting fast deep layer winds through initially but slackening off. if anything is left it may be interesting.
to be honest, though.. when ep is gone we're probably done for the yea.
HF 1423z06december
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Still a hurricane at the 10am update. I've been looking at the models - anyone else see something very interesting coming off the east coast in a few days? Cyclone Phase is picking up on it also, with is pushing it to a shallow warm core with a large low pressure area in about 4-5 days. What's really interesting is to look at the - it looks suspiciously like a tropical system in that model run. and make it look much more like a noreaster.
Look down at Flordia around T=72h:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
GFDL on Epsilon is also showing it, and its finer detail makes it look suspiciously like a tropical system - again initiating about T=72h by Flordia:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
Here's the Cyclone Phase for for that system:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05120606/71.html
In comparison, Cyclone Phase on the product keeps it a deep cold core:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/05120600/56.html
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Dec 06 2005 11:41 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Well we do have "thunder" snowstorms...
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doug
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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quote/ I've been looking at the models - anyone else see something very interesting coming off the east coast in a few days? /quote
I saw that a couple of days ago. Apparently our local NWS office is watching it too.
*snippets*
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
343 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005
*snip*
ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF TO OUR
WEST...AND IF IT DOES...HOW STRONG DOES IT GET?
*snip*
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MID/UPPER
LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
They also mentioned it yesterday. Stating that the models continue to differ significantly.
Seems to me that the models are a little closer in agreement today than yesterday. Let's see what they have to say tomorrow.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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That's more of the typical rapidly developing system along the Gulf Stream that undergoes warm-seclusion development in the North Atlantic. The overall depiction of that is frontal in nature -- I don't think it's anything we need to worry about from a tropical standpoint and is more something for those along the East coast to watch for rain/snow.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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As I leave work tonight, looks like Epsilon is fighting its way back to the same steady state ...looking more symmetrical in the last couple sat images, although the convection is sparse, outflow can still be seen on the wv loop. And it looks like Avila had the right idea just referencing the steady state in the 4am discussion and not mentioning the overnight twists and turns of the newest soap opera, "As Epsilon Turns."
Well I'm going to do myself a favor tonight and not look at Epsilon between 7pm and 7am; save myself a lot of trouble. I'll get up in the morning and Epsilon will still be there, right?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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I just found this humorous from the discussion.
THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
They've run out of things to say. I still think its amazing Epsilon is a hurricane.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I'm not so sure that Epsilon can't maintain itself for at least another day or so as a hurricane. It is sort of trapped just south of a skinny, narrow ridge axis to the north and west, with the strong polar jet located well to the north of the storm. There's a persistent blocking low at the tip of Greenland, something that should capture and pivot the next trough to the NW of the storm more toward the north than east with time. The system coming off of the eastern US coast -- as mentioned in the 10p discussion -- is making more headway toward the east, but even it is still some distance away, currently oriented from Bermuda SW toward the central Bahamas.
A weak upper low located just to the southwest of Epsilon is sliding to the southwest in conjunction with the storm and may be helping to ward off some of the effects of the polar jet to the north and subtropical jet to the south. The subtropical jet extends from the southern Lesser Antilles, where an upper-level low is located, to the northeast toward the Madeira Islands. It's missing Epsilon right now and may continue to do so; the aforementioned upper low just southwest of the storm is on the cyclonic shear side of the jet and probably won't be negatively impacted.
Essentially, if this trough coming off of the east coast of the US lifts and misses the storm, I don't see any reason why Epsilon wouldn't continue to head toward the west-southwest back across the Atlantic. That's not what the models are forecasting right now, but they've been wrong before. Plus, model predictability is generally pretty low when there are one or more deep cyclones in the pattern -- as we have forecast now with one east of Greenland and one moving into Alaska. Safest bet, though, is to say that it'll dissipate in 2-3 days as the trough approaches it, but be watching the water vapor imagery closely over the next 24hr to see what happens. The pattern is amplifying somewhat across the US, with a trough digging into the west, but is probably not enough to significantly amplify the pattern in the eastern Atlantic and definitively kick Epsilon outta here -- but may just be enough to rip it to shreds.
It's definitely something to watch -- the best kind of December system. I know the would probably rather just be done with Epsilon and the season as a whole, but frankly I say just sit back and enjoy the show.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Aw I couldn't resist taking a quick peak before lights out...CaneT I agree that's another priceless quote. Since this is my first year, I just want to know -- have the discussions always been this droll? And, Franklin: we like you, we really really do.
Clark your post was a great read. What a wonderfully deviant idea.
Well Epsilon is cruising, looking more tropical and developing some solid convection, and, on the wv loop, looking like it's ensconced in a lovely cocoon. All of which makes me wonder, if, before the really really end, there's a chance for Cat 2 before flaming out?
droll? whaddya expect? these are meteorological discussions, not works of epic shakespearean wordsmithery. well... they had the chance with ophelia, but nobody made any jokes about the storm trying to drown itself.. -HF
(off-topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Dec 07 2005 08:25 AM)
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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Wallasey
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Sorry, can't help saying this, but doesn't Ep look happy trundling around the Atlantic.
(off-topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Dec 07 2005 08:27 AM)
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Some of the models are picking up on a new chunk of energy breaking off and sinking into a closed system in a couple of days.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
To my great amusement the 00Z now weakens Epsilon to a TD then back to hurricane force in 84 hours.
The and dissipates Eps but creates what would be Zeta and the and UKM aren't quite as aggressive.
Thoughts....bets?
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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eh, i don't see why not. zeta, sure.
epsilon really really ought to die soon. the profile of the storm has deteriorated just a little through the day, so that long prognosticated plunge to nothingness ought to start any time. clark thinks maybe it'll just eek by, but i'm going to bet that it gets fed into that great chipper shredder in the sky also known as the jet stream and decides to call it quits.
the post-ep (or maybe ep will still be there) feature evolves in more or less the same way as its predecessors, but further east, closer to the canaries. i'm thinking that will favor a less tropical system all the way around. it does persist and show relative warming aloft in the , so some of the familiar evidence is there. going to bet against this one, too, though... until the models show the feature and let it linger in the region for a few more runs.
there was a little rumbling about caribbean interest earlier. right now the models aren't showing a whole lot. just some upper ridging and a trades surge that weakens and leaves a small concentration of disturbed weather north of panama early next week.
not sold on anything being in the basin in about three days, and nothing beyond that. the season will probably end when ep bites it, though i'll back out on that statement if that east atlantic feature persists/improves in the model runs.
HF 0836z07december
well, 09Z advisory still has it as a hurricane. avila says the end is in sight. i agree, but does epsilon? -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Dec 07 2005 03:56 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Anyone reminded of the Energizer commercials?
Epsilon just keeps going and going and going and going and ...
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Gotta love the , when you read the 4AM discussion.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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I say nothing.
And what's to love about the ?
The 2005 hurricane season is officially behind us.
It's time for celebrations, decorating and much love between families...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Epsilon just keeps going and going and going and going and ...
Some stats from Jeff Master's blog this am:
"Epsilon has now remained a hurricane for five days, making it the longest lived December hurricane on record. The previous record was just over four days, set by an unnamed 1887 hurricane. Epsilon has been a hurricane long enough to push the Hurricane Season of 2005 into sixth place for the most number of days a hurricane has been present--50.25 days. The record is 1893, with 72 days. If Epsilon can hang around until the 4 pm advisory on Friday, 2005 will tie 1995 for the second highest number of days with a named storm in the Atlantic, 120.5. The record is 136 named storm days in 1933."
At the risk of being pedantic...the final record that will be set by the hurricane season of 2005, will be the overall number of new records that were set.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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