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Tiff
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Margie]
      #65187 - Sun May 14 2006 04:48 PM

Thanks again, I do appreciate it.
I'm a worry wart anyway and this has just scared me to death.
I am supposed to take my mom to dinner in a little bit so I will be unable
to check for new posts. Doesn't mean I'll do anything but think about this
until i get back though. I will forward the info to him as I get it.
I just want him to get home safely and soon!


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Tiff]
      #65188 - Sun May 14 2006 06:01 PM

Isn't this just the slightest bit freaky its turning out almost exactly like the lame discovery channel simulation they did for the worst case scenario series?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Margie
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #65191 - Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM

#26 is out, and no change to the point of landfall. Current intensity is set at 135kts to increase to max of 140kts.

Hong Kong will start to feel tropical storm force winds by early Wednesday morning, but wind will become gusty and the weather will worsen about 12 hours before that, by Tuesday evening.

The typhoon may speed up as it approaches land and so these effects could occur earlier. To give an example, with Katrina, they were 12 hours earlier than forecast three days before. So unless that's a really early aft flight Tiff he should be looking for an earlier one. And if he can't fly off the island, rent a car and drive off -- get off the islands and get inland.

Since JTWC did not change the track significantly, and since some of the good models are showing a landfall slightly more to the west, this looks like a bad one. Looks like it could hit at a pretty high intensity. Because of the monsoon there is no dry air to cause dry air intrusion (thanks for letting me know that, Steve)...the only inhibiting factor besides the timing of ERCs is the cooler water offshore, and that effect will be minimized if the speed increases. And if it is coming in at 130, 125 kts, well then it wouldn't make much difference if it weakened to 115 kts as that would still be devestating.

This hasn't been in the news much, and I can only hope that people there are preparing for the worst -- and 'worst' may be worse than anything we've seen here by orders of magnitude.

* * * * * * *

Update -- here is the prog, and it is interesting:

A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.

B. STY 02W HAD CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND IS JUST NOW STARTING TO SHIFT POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTRO- PICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

C. STY 02W WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW INCLUDING AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300NM EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND IT WILL UNDERGO RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

That's very good news. That must be quite a stretch of cool water offshore. I've only been watching since last July but needless to say I've never heard of anything like that. I don't know what else would additionally factor into the transition (lack of experience...if any mets are reading this thread and could post some more detail on an explanation it would be very much appreciated).


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tiff
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Margie]
      #65194 - Sun May 14 2006 11:00 PM

Hi Margie
After your response this morning, I called him @ 5am (Hong Kong time).
He has got a flight out of Hong Kong today @ 12:45 pm. He should be boarding in about an hour.
He says the weather there this morning was beautiful but now it's starting to get cloudy.
I cannot believe the lack of information that has been given on the news about this.
I have only heard very small details on the weather channel.
Thank you


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HanKFranK
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #65195 - Sun May 14 2006 11:01 PM

hadn't looked at chanchu in about a day. for some reason i keep thinking the forecast track will shift east and drop the threat to the hong kong area. as is, pretty bad situation. lots of real estate to destroy there, and a huge population at risk. on the bright side, by the time the hurricane gets there... if the atlantic rules about hurricanes tending to peak and have their cores flatten thereafter, the winds may not be quite as furious as they're going to be for the next day or two. i don't know the topography of the area that well but hong kong is really built up, so it shouldn't be a problem getting people up above whatever surge chanchu might drive in.
hope for the best for the chinese about to get this typhoon visitation.
HF 0401z15may


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Margie
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Tiff]
      #65196 - Sun May 14 2006 11:24 PM Attachment (375 downloads)

Quote:

He says the weather there this morning was beautiful but now it's starting to get cloudy.

Thank you


You're more than welcome. Better to be on the safe side.

It definitely is starting to haze over (current image from, 11:17a local time, is attached).

--------------------
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ClarkModerator
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Margie]
      #65199 - Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM

Well, the storm beginning ET just prior to landfall can be both good and bad, depending on where the track actually ends up going. The predictability of where the worst effects of the storm will be felt inherently goes down during ET given the transformations occurring within the storm. Specifically, where the strongest winds are moves outward from the center of the cyclone (even though their intensity may decrease) while the outer wind field actually spins up. The storm should be moving fast enough that precipitation amounts aren't too much of a concern, but that's not all good. Instead, this could enhance the potential for high waves to the east of the center, particularly given the intensity of the storm. You see this a lot with ET events, but also to a lesser extent with intense hurricanes accelerating to the north -- think, on a lesser scale, what happened with Dennis and Katrina last year. I'm not saying that will happen here; just something to watch out for. Needless to say, Hong Kong certainly wants to end up on the western side of the cyclone, as the impacts of most transitioning storms start to become even a bit more exaggerated toward the right (here, east) side of the cyclone.

A couple of interesting aspects from a scientific perspective...
1) SSTs all the way to the coastline are at least 26C, not necessarily sufficient to maintain a super typhoon but not enough to bring about any substantial weakening either (given the projected forward speed). There is a pretty sharp SST gradient from here on out, though. Also, as it moves northward, it'll be encountering increasingly strong shear associated with the midlatitude westerlies; this coupled with the SST gradient is likely what is resulting in the model predictions of ET.
2) The record low latitude for an ET event in the Atlantic is held by Michelle in 2001, which started to undergo ET around 20-21N and completed it in the 27-28N range. Looking at the model consensus phase evolution for this system, it looks like ET is projected to begin at about 21-22N and complete anywhere in the 25-27N range. I don't know what the record for the NW Pacific is, but it's not likely to be much further south (if at all). The S. Pacific and S. Indian Ocean are different; ET occurs around 20S quite frequently in those basins owing to the penetration of midlatitude troughs closer to the equator in the S. Hemisphere.

It's going to be a tight one for Hong Kong here over the next few days. Here's hoping for the best for everyone in the region.

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Margie
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Chanchu is done [Re: Clark]
      #65201 - Mon May 15 2006 08:12 AM

Morning -- haven't done more than take a quick look. Chanchu looks done. Strong shear has lopped off all convection on the northern side. It appears to be a cold front? [edit -- both wrong guesses -- just cold water! but there could be a trough, because actually outflow still looks excellent -- I just can't tell]

I should have realized this last night, because before #26 came out, Chanchu looked like it had peaked and was on the downswing, the CDO was starting to become lopsided, and I did say the steady state had changed, but then when they had the intensity increasing for another 24 hours, I thought that I wasn't seeing it right.

Anyway NRL still labels the images at 120kts but no way...doesn't even look to be more than around 105kts now, and once it moves a little further north if the convection continues to erode at this same rate, around the eyewall, then that is it I would guess. I have never seen a strong hurricane get mowed down like this, so I don't know exactly what to expect.

Thanks much Clark -- would definitely be interested in hearing some feedback on what is going on with Chanchu and going back over the last 24 hours how this could have been seen on the sat images (everything is a learning experience).

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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alyssum
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Clark]
      #65202 - Mon May 15 2006 08:53 AM

It's nice that people are so concerned about the welfare of Hong Kong. And I know that watching storms is exciting... but... I think this thread might be spiraling more out of control than the typhoon itself.

I live in HK...and yes, it's a massive city. I still can't get over the forest of skyscrapers we have (though we also have a lot of beautiful mountains and real forests, too). However, HK is well-equipped and well-aware of the threat of typhoons. I would say they are almost too prepared. The observatory has warnings for every possible scenario at all possible threat levels. Watching TV is blast during typhoon season 'cause there are four or five pretty icons plastered on the top of every channel. There is heavy rainstorm warnings, landslip warnings, flooding warnings, high winds warnings, typhoon warnings, lightening warnings, and more.... But for all of us living in the skyscrapers, we're lucky if we see much of that. I went through a Typhoon Signal No 8 a couple years ago. No. 8 is when they shutdown the entire city. I was kinda excited since I never got to see a real hurricane when I lived in Texas years ago. But it was the most boring day I ever had. A few scattered thunderstorms and some windy gusts. Damage was minimal, but the TV news tried to play it up as much as possible. I also went through a few typhoons last year that caused a lot of rain (not much for wind tho). It rained about 20 inches in 2 days from the reports I saw. In anywhere else that I have lived before, that would be a serious flood. But in HK, it just runs down the mountains and goes back to the sea. The worst problem we suffered was the outbreak of mold in the house. (Note: No, the harbor tunnels and subway tunnels did not get flooded. There was no "Day after tomorrow" scenes of people running through the streets with a huge tsunami behind them.)

Well, these experiences are not direct hits. So what about 1999 when Typhoon York had direct landfall on HK? I love hearing weather horror stories, so I have been making a point about asking all my friends who lived here at that time about it. Guess what? They don't remember it. Now, that's not to say that it was a complete no-show. I looked up the news reports and I found out that two people died. One was windsurfing just before the typhoon hit (hmm...) and one slipped and fell. There was a lot of flooding but mostly in the less developed areas of New Terrorities. For being the worst typhoon to hit HK in decades, it was pretty manageable.

Anyways, my point is....can we please not compare typhoons in HK to Katrina?! There is absolutely no comparison with the destruction. The difference between the infrastructure of areas on the Gulf Coast and HK is huge. For one, HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. And most importantly, Hong Kong is above sea-level!!

So for anyone else out there with loved ones in HK. Don't worry. And whatever you do, DO NOT TELL THEM TO CROSS THE BORDER INTO MAINLAND. Despite being more inland, you have a lot more problems to worry about it: the infrastructures of the cities, emergency response teams, and everything else.

If you guys want, I'll write back with a report of what happens after the storm passes. Though I doubt it will be a very interesting read.

BTW, what is this crazy TV show people are mentioning about a typhoon hitting HK? I want to see it, sounds like a hoot.


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Margie
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Clark]
      #65204 - Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM Attachment (346 downloads)

Ok I found out that the water temps are very cold this early in the season (image attached) and there isn't much heat potential above about 16 or 17N. This must be why the models showed the transition to ET.

So...definitely the colder temps are having an effect, especially with the slower speed, and that is why the disappearing convection to the north, and why it did not appear to be terribly sheared on sat images.

Regarding the prev posting ("HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. ").

The northern Gulf Coast is is home to many people who live in permanent housing, not "beach houses." It has been populated for over 200 years. The surge went a considerable distance inland, not just on the beachfront. The idea that there was so much destruction because there were no permanent structures is completely wrong. There was so much destruction, because surge can cause so much destruction.

Chanchu is evidence that storms do get as strong there as in the GOM. It is just early in the season and the water temps are not as warm, so that strength couldn't be maintained above 20N. That does not mean Hong Kong is impervious to strong TC, and the "forest of skyscrapers" is particularly vulnerable to winds, which are stronger above the ground. It is always best to plan for the worst case when the outcome is not certain.

Warning #28 is out and the official track is shifted along with NOGAPS to the east of Hong Kong, putting them on the back side of the typhoon, which is now looking to make landfall around Shanwei, around 8 or 9 pm local time on Wednesday evening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
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lesser storm [Re: Margie]
      #65210 - Mon May 15 2006 03:35 PM

not nearly as alarming today. the track finally shifted east from HK, so the worst conditions won't affect them on that course. mature hurricanes don't usually do that ET intensification thing. with the winds weakening those huge swells that are likely to accompany the storm won't be quite as bad... may generate a surge a little higher than the category suggests at landfall but probably not by much.
the SSTs just offshore are good for sustaining a hurricane, though. generally 26-28C. it'll probably maintain hurricane strength on the way in unless the shear profile goes to hell.
mountains in HK, huh? thought i remembered seeing stuff like that on shots of the cityscape... just seems so foreign to an east coast guy like me who is used to a broad coastal plain. probably makes surge fatalities a thing for boneheads without simple self-preservation skills. i can't see the one-party chinese government allowing people to willfully stay for that anyhow. nope, new orleans is not likely over there.
HF 2035z15may


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malt-teaser
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: alyssum]
      #65211 - Mon May 15 2006 04:54 PM

Yeah. It's actually been quite boring whenever there's a typhoon or super-typhoon. Sometimes seasonal heavy rainstorms do more damages. There's virtually no structure that can't withstand even a tornado in Hong Kong (maybe people paying too much for houses here can at least say they live in a fortress). And to give you an idea, people don't live in sampan or village huts and stuff like that. The airport and subway here are state-of-the-art, won plenty of world architectural awards for their hi-tech design etc. Hong Kong has very sophisticated flood channel system. I think Discovery should do a program on flood prevention system (maybe they have?? I don't know *shrug). It's so modern and well-prepared for stuff like typhoons it's almost sick. Afterall, they have been directly struck by tens (and indirectly hit by hundreds) of typhoons over the past few decades. But yes I do think this one can break a few more trees and damage some of the thousands of Mercedes Benzes and BMWs here this time. And I'm sure people will cry for a day or two lost in punting stocks and trading futures.

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malt-teaser
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Re: lesser storm [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65212 - Mon May 15 2006 05:15 PM

Quote:

not nearly as alarming today. the track finally shifted east from HK, so the worst conditions won't affect them on that course. mature hurricanes don't usually do that ET intensification thing. with the winds weakening those huge swells that are likely to accompany the storm won't be quite as bad... may generate a surge a little higher than the category suggests at landfall but probably not by much.
the SSTs just offshore are good for sustaining a hurricane, though. generally 26-28C. it'll probably maintain hurricane strength on the way in unless the shear profile goes to hell.
mountains in HK, huh? thought i remembered seeing stuff like that on shots of the cityscape... just seems so foreign to an east coast guy like me who is used to a broad coastal plain. probably makes surge fatalities a thing for boneheads without simple self-preservation skills. i can't see the one-party chinese government allowing people to willfully stay for that anyhow. nope, new orleans is not likely over there.
HF 2035z15may




My bet is: nothing will happen, at all. oh, they are so well prepared, and for many decades too. you have to see all those buildings made from steel and concrete there. i can't even describe them.
and the HK government runs the table there, not the chinese government. and they actually have a legislative branch where the opposition party takes command and often upset Beijing on a lot of the issues in the city. You ought to visit HK sometime, Really. It's actually quite a fun place to see, especially when you're walking downtown, where there are all these luxury brand outlets (LV, Gucci etc) and expensive hotels like the Four Season, Ritz Carlton and Intercontinental etc. It feels more British than Chinese, except for all the Chinese faces on the street. And their apartment are so expensive! -- between $500 to $2000 each square foot of space!!! there are an average 2 cell phones to one person... it's a very different world outside the US than what most Americans are led by their media (I used to for them) to believe.


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Hannu
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Margie]
      #65213 - Mon May 15 2006 05:43 PM

Any idea what the cituation is right now? I am livin in Shenzhen 35 km's above Hong Kong...

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Deep Surge
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: Hannu]
      #65218 - Mon May 15 2006 07:07 PM

Wow, there are people from Hong Kong coming here; cool. It peaked last night and then begun to weaken this morning. Right now, it looks better then this morning which means it could be recovering. I'm not sure why but it could strengthen again. I think it will hit Hong Kong or where ever at CAT 3 if it doesn't weaken by the shear or cool waters too much, CAT2 if it does.

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Margie
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Chanchu in cool waters [Re: Deep Surge]
      #65227 - Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM Attachment (364 downloads)

Was very busy at work today and didn't get too much chance to take a look. Good to wait for the first vis sat image anyway, and, looking at the 1km zoom from an hour ago, Chanchu's organization has improved considerably from this morning. And there continues to be good radial outflow on the west but what appears to be some shear on the NE. With the convection in the center, the eyewall is prominent again but the eye continues to be covered with a thin cirrus shield. I think the winds this morning were stronger than I realized at the time, looking at the lopsided convection in the CDO. Even though CIMSS AODT rates the winds at 90 kts, the current range of 105-110 kts in the JTWC forecast seems believeable looking at the visual and IR. Microwave passes throughout the day have mostly missed.

The core has become much smaller and IR shows that intense convection has almost completely wrapped around the core again. There is quite a bit of convection in the spiral bands outside the core as opposed to yesterday's Cat 4 structure. With the spiral bands the typhoon pretty much takes up the entire basin. JTWC warning #9 has expanded the windfields at landfall accordingly.

The last six hours the upper level winds assoc with the typhoon have curved a dent into the jet to the north, an outflow channel. I think this would be another indication of a strong storm.

The storm is at about 17N. Maybe because it is moving and the SSTs are still good enough to maintain strength, perhaps upwelling was the culprit earlier. Which makes the intensity forecast interesting. JTWC now has it steadily weakening, but if it continues moving at this rate, then SSTs are good almost to the shoreline, I think. So it may be able to maintain 100-110 kts until close to landfall. Heat content falls off drastically north of 17-18N, so either it made a recovery because it hit a spot with some reasonably deep heat content this afternoon, and intensity will slide down again once it moves further north, past this area, or, SSTs at this current speed are enough to maintain the current intensity, without significant heat content.

The model plots have converged and this is the tightest they have ever been so there is good confidence in the track.

* * * * * *
9:30pm update -- Warning #30 is out. The track has been shifted very slightly a little east...essentially in the noise. The initial sustained winds are raised from 110kt to 115kt (reflecting the improved sat signature). Landfall is shown at 80kts which is just shy of Cat 2 intensity, with ET beginning at that time.

Finally a microwave pass did catch part of the center and it's pretty interesting -- I'll attach it (someone please PM me how to add an image into a post!).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon May 15 2006 10:44 PM)


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ClarkModerator
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Re: Chanchu in cool waters [Re: Margie]
      #65232 - Mon May 15 2006 11:59 PM

Classic double eyewall structure, with the inner, tight eyewall surrounded by a moat region, itself surrounded by the outer eyewall. Usually don't see quite that large of separation, but it suggests to me that an eyewall cycle is just getting going. Note that that product is sensitive to ice aloft (among other things), so what you are seeing is the fine-scale convective structure within the storm -- thus the double eyewall structure.

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alyssum
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Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing [Re: malt-teaser]
      #65233 - Tue May 16 2006 12:19 AM

I found the Discovery TV show people were making references to. It's "Super Typhoon," episode 3 of Discovery Channel's "Perfect Disaster". After watching it, my confidence in Hong Kong's ability to deal with serious typhoons went up even higher. I had no idea we have a huge flood channel system under the city! So that's where all the water goes... I remember watching the rain last year pour for two days straight and not seeing more than a puddle. I was dumbfounded by it (I grew up in technologically primitive towns of the US).

I also was pleased to see the program talk about the comprehensive "Slope Registration" program. Though, it has taken me a while to get used to the notion of numbering all the slopes in the territory (Help, I've tilted my toast at a 45% angle! Does it need to be restablized??)

One issue that the program didn't talk about was the power system. I suddenly remembered we don't have power lines here...so I suppose that's why the lights don't flicker everytime a wind picks up. So much for those fun childhood days of lighting up candles all around the house. But now I am really curious what exactly it would take to have a large power outage in HK?

BTW, thanks for pointing out how our inflated housing prices can be somewhat justified with the sturdy construction. That helps me rationalize my outrageous rent. Frankly, living in HK has made me believe that the benefits of hi-tech urban living far outweigh those of suburbia. Mitigating the effects of natural disasters is just one of many benefits.


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Deep Surge
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Re: Chanchu in cool waters [Re: Clark]
      #65235 - Tue May 16 2006 12:49 AM

Looks to be it's going through a odd ERC. That is quite large, reminds me of the late Wilma when it was going through Florida. Very large eyewall to come?

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Hannu
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Re: Chanchu in cool waters [Re: Deep Surge]
      #65239 - Tue May 16 2006 06:52 AM

So far it looks pretty calm here in Shekou SZ, small wind (about 12 m/s) and light rain. When I visited local Wal Mart few hours ago people looked like they really don`t care a bit about the storm. Our flat is on 11th floor and there is a small hill (about 350 meters high) right behind us. Just checked the garage area under our house and it looked ok place to stay if it gets nasty with in next 24 hours. Heavy steel tank doors etc. Any good ideas what I should notice if the eye hits near?

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