Look around. Most are experimental products that are VERY good. The North American plots are pretty much non-experimental at this point, although they're still in that program.
Check out the difference between 12 hours and 120 hours in the Ensemble.
Also, here's why Ernesto has strengthened and will continue to do so. You can see how far the 40-50kt. shear has pulled back to the west away from the system.
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Generated May 11, 2024, 1:03:36 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center