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Yeah, the has it so under control that their forecast track has changed in all but 2 of the advisories in the last 3 days. They screwed up and (Florida landfall) and they are bound to make a mistake again in the future. Generally, they are reliable but certainly not beyond reproach and their track forecasts are open to speculation. Their intensity forecasts are definitely open to speculation. They have repeatedly messed those up.
Since I can't pm you...
What would you like them to do? The fact that they get in the ballpark in a science that 10 years ago, wasn't anywhere near as reliable as it is now, is incredible. People forget, meteorology and most notably hurricane study, have only really taken off after World War 2 .
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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