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jeff p
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: fl-dade+broward
Ernesto Over Mainland Florida
      #72862 - Wed Aug 30 2006 07:38 PM

this has been a slow season. Ernesto has never gotten it's act together. it has gone it's own way, faily stady state. the forcasts have also done thire own thing. the storm and the forcasts never did jive. people ofcause have paid attention to the forcasts and not the trend of what the storm itself was doing. also i think some of us do not remember the old days when more storms had stayed over cuba, and what that island mass can do to a storm. does anyone else see it this way?
how have you seen it
You may choose 2
do not think so

Votes accepted from (Wed Aug 30 2006 07:37 PM) to (No end specified)
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in memory of bob weaver - jeff

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Weather Master

Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: jeff p]
      #72872 - Wed Aug 30 2006 08:53 PM

I voted no and figured I'd say something since the topic was getting tossed around in the other thread...

The 5 day "cone" was a mess, but it usually is, going from TX to FL in two days is pretty bad. Last year there was someone on this forum that said they were always happy when their hometown was in the 5-day cone as that guaranteed them to be out of harms way when all was said and done However the 3 day cone was pretty much spot on.

In regards to the intensity: I believe ever since Andrew fooled them (and then more recently Charlie) the NHC tends to give storms a one category "boost" with the logic that they would rather be safe then sorry. I've never had much faith in this "estimated wind speed at surface" line they feed us, once a storm passes the data almost always points to steady winds that were a good 15-25 mph LESS then what was predicted.

In regards to Cuba's effects: If Ernesto had come off the coast 6-12 hours sooner this could have been a completely different situation. Then again it was such a disogranized mess I don't know how they even called it a TS when it was over Cuba! But if they had downgraded it then everyone in Keys would have ignored it completely. At times I think the NHC does stuff just to CYA. Nothing wrong with that since it protects more people but it makes them look like they don't what they are talking about when they are clearly the BEST at this guessing game we call "forecasting".

South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)

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