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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Out of Africa
      #73639 - Mon Sep 11 2006 08:45 PM

A potent tropical wave exited the west African coast earlier today. It is a large system centered near 10N 19W at 12/00Z. Wind shear is anticipated to be light for its journey westward.

The GFS has overplayed the intensity of the trough that the model depicts as creating a weakness in the Atlantic ridge near 60W in about a week. The 18Z run of the model takes the associated cold front and moves it south through the entire Florida peninsula late on the 16th - and thats not at all likely to happen - far too early in the fall season for a frontal event to sweep southward through the entire state.

This suggests that the trough itself has been over-emphasized by the model and is not likely to cause enough of a weakness in the ridge to capture what what will likely be the eventual 'Helene'. With low shear and no apparent upper-level obstructions, this system seems to have the initial potential to become a significant storm - but thats still a long way down the road. For now, lets just say that this wave has an excellent chance for further development - with the possibility of a long westward trek.

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2176
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Area of Interest - Out of Africa [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73641 - Tue Sep 12 2006 03:30 AM

The shortwave loop is really showing off how large the cyclonic wind field is already with (I'll jump the gun a little here and call this) "94l Pending." I'm trying to think if I have seen a wave with better structure so far this year - And while I'm not sure - as there have been so many impressive ones this season, this certainly would have to rank in the Top 5.

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Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Re: Area of Interest - Out of Africa [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73643 - Tue Sep 12 2006 09:25 AM

The NRL site is already listing this as 08L.NONAME, so it looks like we are going to have TD #8 at 11:00.

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