Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Weather Guru

Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Nothing Much Going On...
      #73949 - Sun Oct 08 2006 02:12 AM

Good evening,

Tropics are dead tonight and will probably remain quiet for the rest of the season.I know this is long range and can not be taken seriously...But The 00Z GFS tonight forms a weak area of Low-pressure in the gulf of mexico and brings into south-florida threw the bahamas and begins to intensify of the eastcoast to 992mbs.

00Z GFS @ 372hrs

00z GFS @ 384 hrs

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Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #73958 - Mon Oct 09 2006 08:33 PM

The way the pattern has been would say NO MORE STORMS, The way I see it Two storms, maybe one affecting U.S.
This could be Gulf area. Any ideas?

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #73972 - Tue Oct 10 2006 10:36 PM

The long-range GFS isn't reliable in the least, particularly at time frames of 15-16 days as posted there. It's more for general climate patterns than anything; all models, including the GFS, have enough trouble predicting things right in one week, yet alone two.

Further, the system that it develops there is decidedly baroclinic/non-tropical. Note the orientation of the dashed contours, the thickness lines -- they are oriented as seen with warm and cold fronts throughout. The precipitation distribution is indicative of an extratropical cyclone as well. In other words -- nothing to get worked up about.

Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

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