Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A stationary weak area of low pressure has formed just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Good convection in the eastern semicircle somewhat enhanced by a strong subtropical jetstream just to the north of the low. While shear to the north of the system will inhibit significant near-term development, the shear zone is expected to remain strong but drift slowly to the north during the next couple of days. SSTs are about 28C, so some slow development is possible. Little movement - perhaps a northward drift - is anticipated in the near term. Something to keep an eye on as the season gets underway.
ED
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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
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Looking at the shear map, I can't see how this area of convection will get its act together.
As you can see here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
The SST's are in the 84D'Fahrenheit in the Carribean. In the GOM it's horrible. The water temperature are below 80 Degrees and with this blob moving Northward, I don't see it developping at all with the shear tendancy as of today. It may get its act tomorrow as the shear tends to be more favorable but the waters in the GOM is just not warm enough.
Here are some Buoy data's:
Central Carribean;
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
GOM;
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
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Hurricane Season 2007: 16/8/4
Kirk J.
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