scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Doug made a few very good points. I already stated this afternoon what I feel will happen...and right now..alot of people are giving this hype more then really what it is. Right now...there is a disorganized tropical low near Cozumel.....for this to intensify...we need development near the center.
Now with that said...I feel as though a new center will form as a subtropical (at first) low in the SE Gulf later on Friday...and move NNE towards W Central Florida. Winds will be around 40-50mph in the heavier rain areas.,,but generally 15-30mph. This storm will then take more of a baroclinic low off of Florida and head NE. The current low will mingle over the southern gulf and fade out by Sunday. They may or may not send a plane into this on Friday.
scottsvb
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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On further satellite analysis and deeper insight, the opportunity to give this the benifit of the doubt for true tropical and/or subtropical development. It is just not there.
1.) Going back to the Water Vapor Floater (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html) Click on the following on the menu bar at the top of the image: Lat-Lon and HDW-High. Use the Lattitude and Longitude to locate the following approximate coordinates: 20.0N and 92.5W then 25N and 85W. Along this line you will notice a blue streak of clouds. This is along the line of maximum Southwesterly shear and the HDW-High wind barbs indicate winds on the order of 30-50 knots. This is no good, especially considering the close proximity and the fact that the trough is digging closer.
2.) Low level center reformation: The opportunity for this low to reform farther south does not exist because of the following observations a.) The southerly flow between "convective area A" South of Cuba and"Convective Area B" iswell established.(Note the band looking features oriented from North to south between the two.
Wide Image Shortwave Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
Closeup Shortwave: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
The gap may fill with thunderstorms, but the prevailing southerly flow which is resulting from a combination of the low near Cozumel and the trades from the Carribean will not allow for reformation under these thundersotrms.In fact these thunderstorms are the result of an interaction between conflicting weather systems. Finally, if intense thunderstorms were existing asthey should in this case...in "this neck of the woods"...any low pressure reformation would likely occur Northeastward in this type of environment. Where the low literally chases the thunderstorms as they try to peel away. Two perfect examples of this baroclinic type of event are HurricaneEarlin1998 and Tropical Storm Gabrielle in 2001. On thisone,thet-storms areon the south and east side, sothe reformation appears moot.
3.) On the trough digging south, as a tutorial for future systems that may develop in June or July this year out of the NW Carribean or Eastern GOMex.,this pattern would have been more favorable for development (once in the Gulf) if this had been a southward digging or Southwestward digging cutoff low (Say around the BOC or west of that) versus a trough like we have now. The eastern gulf would have been in a more favorable/marginal outflow/diffluent flow. The other idea is to watch for a trough the has its axis at 95W or slightly further west during June or July. This one is at about 90W, and the gulf isn't big enough for the two of these features.
With that said, once again, some drought busting help is on the way. YEAH!!!!
Edited by dem05 (Thu May 31 2007 11:50 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I've added a long-winded (the best kind  ) discussion in a new blog entry (see main page or "Met Blogs" on the left sidebar) about this disturbance. The quick summary is that I expect hybrid development with good rains over a broad area from this one. I don't think there's enough there right now to really support tropical development -- though it's not out of the realm of possibility yet that it doesn't get named...all depends on what recon finds in terms of temperatures at the inner core.
Comments and suggestions are welcome. I can't guarantee I'll be able to provide another full update like that, but I'll try to provide shorter updates at later times.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Good Morning All,
It would seem that the 'center' of circulation is just now coming onto the long-range radar out of Key West.
There is a thunderstorm that shows up quite nicely on the radar loop, that is just NE of the apparent center.
But it's not the supercell type (-80 degrees and colder), and most of the convective banding that is developing is well away from the center of circulation, suggesting more of a sub-tropical appearance.
I suggest that it will become sub-tropical, at best, as the shear is only going to get stronger with time.
But! The GREAT news is that Florida is going to get the good soaking it deserves.
At last! I think there will be more than a few people dancing in the rain, so to speak.
Here's wishing everyone an interesting and Safe! '07 Hurricane Season. Be Prepared!
- Coconut Candy
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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