allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Tropical Storm Karen is gaining strength in the Central Atlantic, the track is still uncertain on where she will head after reaching 50W.There are 2 scenarios that could possibly play out, one of them is starting to get more model support today.
Scenario 1
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/karenscenario1.jpg
Scenario 1 is the most climatogical track, (also what I call the 2006 track). It is that time of the year where cold fronts rush in and out and stops anything tropical from getting further, however we are in a La Nina and that I believe cuts down the troughiness a bit. Bermuda may have a slight risk of a hit if this turns out to happen. Models HWRMF, BAMD, BAMM, , and the support this idea
Scenario 2
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/karenscenario2.jpg
Scenario 2 still remains to be seen, it could actually happen. The high pressure sets up quicker and stronger to keep Karen from moving northeast. This is a typical August scenario if a storm were to come from here. If this scenario plays out, folks in Florida up to Virginia would need to watch this closely. Models UKMET, BAMS, , and even the 06Z has started to hint on more of a westward movement.
-------------------- Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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