tekkrite
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'm certainly an amateur observer but this morning there's a cyclonic swirl developing at the north end of the Bahamas mess, around 23N 68W. You can see it at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_sat.html (click on Animate) and even better in the more real-time http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html at lower-right. Really I don't see a lot of shear affecting it at this point. But I'm not sure it's lower-level--have to admit I haven't figured out how to tell an ULL from a LLC.
This has been tagged "The Season with No Reason," and that's a good one. An alternate label might be "The Year of Shear Luck." I haven't see any explanation yet for why all these strong westerly shear winds in a moderate La Nina year. But living on the Indian River in Melbourne it's been great to see!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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That's a upperlevel low. No developement will take place with that.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Looks like things are finally starting to get going with 92L. Pressures are starting to fall and wind speeds are up at bouys in the area.
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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punkyg
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
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Hi every one,
ok i know what yall thinking "hey thats 92L", but its not its a new area to watch. 92L is off to the west of this remember 92L don't have convection anyways this area is starting to show a swirl north of peurto rico and to east of it is another one on vis and i'm starting to think this has a chance, but i worried about the shear which is about 25kts over our developing system, but until its badly sheared or runs into some major dry air i'll still be watching it.
Edited by punkyg (Fri Oct 05 2007 04:27 PM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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This new "ITCZ" draped over the Greater Antilles, from the Leewards, westward to Cuba, then south into the W. Carib., is really taking some getting used to. Kidding of course, but you know the 'ol expression......"crap or get off the pot" ( PG version ); Well the practically daily ups and downs of these "tropical microclones", are driving me crazy. No, don't bother looking THAT one up either, I just coined it LOL. Of course once again, the area north of Puerto Rico shows some promise, but then again, and just as I am writing this........YEP! There goes the convection?! Well, perhaps will fire up again later tonight, but sure is looking a little more healthy today and this evening. Latest 18Z run of does initialize a low in the vicinity, and very slowly deepens it, as it barely drifts west, right up to when a deep mid-Atlantic trough drops SSW'ward just in time to grab it. Not sure if I buy into that though. Either will finally and actually see some consistant development here, and then looking at the 500mb, cannot see how this would not nearly immediatly start moving generally westward. If so, than would be 5-10 degrees farther west than progged by in 48 to 54 hours. On the other hand, should this just prove to be another transient burst of convection, than would be a moot point anyway.
Be interesting to see if we even have "status quo" 6 hours from now, along with any re-bursting of convection in the same general locale, north of P.R.................... no bets here....
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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footnote to my previous post :
Am thinking that perhaps an approx. centerpoint around 20.8N and 69.5W; had previously thought slightly S.E. of there around 20N/67W, but upon greater consideration now think otherwise. Certainly not willing to go out on a limb and conclude either as a LLC; perhaps multiple mid level vorticities at the present time.
Edited by weathernet (Fri Oct 05 2007 07:19 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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The low (90L) is moving in around High Island, Texas, the same spot as Humberto did. A little rain here. Thank goodness this thing did
not have the conditions it needed to develop. Good old dry air. Rest of the tropics look like a big mess. It will be interesting to see if that major
that is predicted comes to be.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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There are 4 investiages showing all readings on of TOO WEAK, think that is a record for 4 invest and reading to weak.
Dave
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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To use what may seem like a silly analogy, but seems appropriate today...The Atlantic Basin looks alot like a crowded highway... busy enough to cause all kinds of wrecks. I have to wonder in this case, if all of the systems are going to compete with each other, and prevent development from any of them.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Got up this morning and checked the Navy site. 92L is gone and 93L is up
in the same area???Any suggestions?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Sat Oct 06 2007 08:19 AM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Actually that new invest is farther east and gives it more shear to contend with however, it still could develop. I'm interested in the Western Carribean this morning, nice flare up with a weak low, this should be invest 94L shortly.. all these invests and now where to go lol. X92L is actualy south of Cuba, may absorb into that low in the CW, that blow up last night was impressive, but for development, it had to stay to be tagged.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Saturday afternoon and this is what is up there
Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST
(92L removed)
91L.INVEST
90L.INVEST
14L.MELISSA
This is about as much "stuff" as I've ever seen being tracked at one time without a name or two popping out: Five plus a recent removal. (For all practical purposes 14L is now no more developed than any other invest, of course)
Frankly, 91L almost looks good to go. One of those out-there systems that is being downplayed a little because it is under some high shear. An alternate view would point out that it is often the more highly-sheared systems that-- if they are otherwise intact -- are inherently stronger than would be expected. A T number of 1.0 for this system is likely unrepresentative.
Other than 91, which has had solid form to greater or lesser degrees for several days now, I can't hone in on any other one "Invest," as they rearrange, reform, recenter themselves seemingly just as quickly as they get put up. It would almost be just as reasonable to put up Invest 95 ... and then issue subsets (95a, 95b, and so on) at this point. There simply hasn't been any consistent consolidation among these other features of any significance, so far.
Until we see one of these subset invests really take, my eyes are on 91 for holding the best chance of earning Noel. Next to that, possibly another (newest) convective low level swirl, just to the east of 93L, that does not yet have an Invest tag on it... (93L being around 21.6N-68.6W per ) while this latest vortice is located around 21.3N 66.5W
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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95L reminds me of a certain storm that developed in the same area as a Hurricane about oh say 2 years ago 
94L is deffinatly one to watch.. I knew they would tag it after I saw a nice broad circulation this morning. It's almost like deja vu with Vince (95l) and (94L).. although 94L has some shear (not much) but some to contend with, I am watching this one very closely. Shear is about 10 knots which makes it favorable at this time.. probably the reason why it is flaring up nice convection at the wrong time.
93L to is flaring at durinal minimum which tells me that it could pull something by tommorow
91L is a Karen wannabe, it has convection around the center, but not strong convection, if durinal max can blow this up, something deffinatly could form.. I agree, this has the best chances besides 95L, that could be a named storm at ANY given time due to winds over 40 mph.. just needs to get more tropical I guess. 91L may hit some very unfavorable shear soon.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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This -is- getting ridiculous, but yes, I've been watching missed Stargate Atlantis episodes with my significant other this afternoon while following what has just now been tagged 95L. To be candid, I'm a little impressed by their decision to add it - not that I don't think it inappropriate, because, frankly, it's already a subtropical storm, but just because until just the past few hours it has not been as classic as, say, pre-hurricane Epsilon, et.al. circa 2005. On the other hand, 2007 is going down in the books as having a record number of officiated subtropical cyclones, so, perhaps Noel is not lurking tonight down in the Caribbean, Noel may be en route to (Ireland)! I wonder how the Irish would feel about their first Noel. 
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Cyclone phase diagrams on the feature NNE of the Azores:
12z (all from today) -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07100612/10.html
18z UKMET -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07100618/3.html
12z -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/07100612/6.html
Satellite image: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF (look at 47N/23W)
The current (0000 UTC Oct 7th) image suggests a very tropical-ish appearance to go along with the cyclone phase space diagrams suggesting a subtropical or barely tropical structure.
This is most likely a case for a potential post-season upgrade. is watching it, but unless this persists at such a high latitude -- a good 700km or so north of Vince from 2005 -- it's not likely to get classified now.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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In addition to the cyclone phase diagrams and overall appearance on IR, scats have shown a pretty good tendency for the strongest surface winds to coalesce about the center. I think so far the missing ingredient to push this over into a Jerry-esque tropical storm continues to be convection, not that it is not present, just that it is not present in sufficient depth and quantity, likely owing to the relatively cool SSTs. Still, at the very least, all of the other factors rather strongly argue for a real-time or post-season upgrade, IMHO. 40-45 knot STS works for me. Would be wild to get a good 6-12 hour burst of deep convection in the center before the clock runs out. From the look of where the wet bulb temps around 500mb are probably running, this doesn't strike me as impossible, however unusual. Ship report a long and lat or two from the coc logged 998mb at 0600UTC, and currently lists the storm as having a minimum central pressure of 995mb. Overall, more and more 95 is getting a fuller Jerry look & feel to it. Seems like a strong contender for Noel to me.
91L post-eclipse looks dog-gone good. My mut is ready to give it two woofs up, even if SSD isn't. If Chirpa were a betting dog, and he is, he might easily put up a few milkbones for 95 & 91 this morning to get bumped to 15 & 16. Speaking of SSD, here's the latest:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/0645 UTC 20.9N 66.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
07/0645 UTC 15.3N 52.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
07/0600 UTC 48.8N 21.7W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
Not too shabby. And what 94L lacks in convection it certainly is making up in creating a broad area of substantially lower pressure, a very broad surface circulation, and strangely-positioned convective clusters. I'm not sure how one gets a read out of that soup, but it could get more than a bit interesting should it come to a boil.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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94L is looking like a TD but Tnumbers are at 1.0 and I believe numbers have to be up to 2.0 for TD status, though it's looking good and if the process holds or continues, we may have a TD by 5 p.m.
93L was most likely an unncassified TD last night, as it moved into 20-30 knots of wind shear, the low is broad once again, very short lived and hopefully post season analysis will confirm this.
95L should have been classified yesterday as STS Noel at 5 p.m. due to the winds over TS force and having "sub" tropical characteristics, It's looking a bit like late October of 2005.
91L may look good, but the actual low level center is northwest of the convection which means it is getting sheared badly.
Melissa still lives, should have been upgrded back to TD status a few dasy ago in my opinion.. for all the people who said this seasonw as quiet.. look again
so far..
13 storms
3 unclassified
4 hurricanes 1 unclassifed (Karen)
2 major
and La nina continues to keep the season active through this mobth.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Aww. Looks like 95 won't be getting Noel'd. Kind of sad, in a way, as it would have been more than a little novel to track Noel as he raced off for the North Pole this morning. Still has a fairly respectable subtropical structure, but is being drawn into and absorbed by the more dominant features up around 50+N. Lots and lots of data to argue for a post-season addition, this one.
91 was pulling it off overnight, my pooch insists at any rate. For just a few short hours, that LLC was generally nuzzled back under some very deep convection. But alas, the shear terror of all that upper level wind has chased the convection away, once again leaving a bare-bones swirl of 91 fully exposed.
The naked truth of this October looks as if we took October 2005 and mixed it up in a blender with 2006. Lots of "would if I could" features out there, but none getting any help so far from the current environment they find themselves in.
Taking another shot from the hair of the dog that bit me, I guess it would be silly not to mention how much better 94L looks today. Interesting tentacle that reaches out from 94L to old 90L which is now well-inland, just now exiting northern Oklahoma.
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Brett Addison
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
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Seems like 94L will be exiting back into the gulf maybe later today if it keeps moving at the same speed and direction as it is now. This would still give 94L a chance at regenerating since the circulation is still intact. However, with increasing wind shear in the area, the storm may still fall apart completely and not do anything like most of the invest so far in the Atlantic. Actually this is the most likely scenario though I do predict it will become a depression in the Bay of Campechie when the circulation moves into that area late tonight. Wind shear will prevent it from getting any stronger than maybe a week TS and will probably tear the system apart.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Looks like 94 still might try something, eventually. There are also a few other weak swirls spinning about within the trof draped ENE and NE from extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche all the way into the western Atlantic. 94L still has a tag on it, even though it is now over land. Seems reasonable to keep that tag and floater going, with it still intact, generating numerous showers and storms, and lots of possibilities to pop back out over open water. Nonetheless, the fronts draped W-E to 94's north, and with very & dry stable air behind them, should preclude much of any northward component for at least another day or two, and even if it does begin tracking north, then it might encounter an extremely hostile airmass. For now, to me it looks more like a no threat, rain-flood threat, or maybe just maybe a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and/or out to sea threat.
In all actuality, if I was looking for Noel right now, I would be paying attention to how operationally handles the non-tropical low quickly acquiring tropical characteristics out near 32N 15W.
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