Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Active tropical wave with signs of a weak mid-level circulation near 11N 53W at 10/15Z moving to the west to west northwest at 12 knots. Although SSTs are warm enough at 28C, the wave is moving into an area of increasing westerly windshear and additional strengthening seems rather unlikely. At the moment its just a feature to keep a casual eye on.
Cheers,
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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That westerly shear seems to be a little less than it was last week. However, it is an interesting little system to watch. The weather continues to be rather unsettled in the western Caribbean which is the more likely spawning ground this time of year.
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Michael
PWS
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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One area of interest in Atlantic, approaching Caribbean from Central Atlantic, Tropical Wave with good steady convection at about 53W 13N, with a little bit of a spin maybe in the NW portion of the convection.
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Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 10 2008 02:32 PM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Yes, this wave out and just east of the Windwards is a little lost, given the time of year, however is going through a nice convective spurt this afternoon. Granted, that it may well be the shear itself that is helping to flare up the convection, but I too think that the shear might be a little less than in previous days. Moreso, it looked to me based on earlier run of the 6Z - 200mb, that the upper air was definately relaxing with time, and that about 48 hours, was 5-10 knots in the E. Central Caribbean. Curiously, the energy with this wave was forecast by the models to pretty much get pulled up and to the north at, or just east of the Lessor Antilles. Considering that this is a shallow system at best, I would assume that the steering would be more at the 850mb to surface levels, and I would assume that an overall west to WNW motion to simply continue. If this wave continues to mainain a decent signiture, and in fact work its way into the E. Caribbean, than perhaps it can sustain a bursting pattern for a couple of days, and then upper air could be conducive for further development.
Talk about a weird year............., imagine a second storm of the season, in early June, deepening in the Eastern Caribbean of all places?? Not exactly textbook, especially given the typical void that S. America usually creates out of the far E. Caribbean. Some of the systems that have deepened while in the Eastern Caribbean, have been nasty little buggers, over the years.
Probably little to worry about, but is interesting to see the few early healthy Atlantic tropical waves thus far.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Latest visible imagery would seem to indicate a possible developing LLCC within the convective mass, based on low cloud lines.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Latest visible imagery would seem to indicate a possible developing LLCC within the convective mass, based on low cloud lines.
I don't quite see that yet and there is a fair amount of westerly shear near that system, but the graphical forecast shows less than 20 percent probability this afternoon. Also, the flair up in the SW Caribbean this afternoon is rather impressive. It could be an interesting week in the tropics.
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Michael
PWS
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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
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It has been persistent and it has grown in size. Catches the eye. Avila/Landsea gave it a rather long write up in the 5pm that would imply something could come from it possibly. Will be interesting to see how it does overnight especially with regard to a visible center forming vs a large sprawling tropical wave.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Let's take a quick look at the latest, 00Z-8PM EDT, RAOB or weather balloon observations from the Eastern Caribbean.
TJSJ-San Juan, P.R.
PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD
mb m____C___C__%___C__C deg_ knt
850 1543 16.4 14.5 89 1.9 15.1 035 3kt
700 3173 8.2 -2.8 46 11.0 2.7 350 10kt
500 5880 -7.3 -22.3 29 15.0 -11.9 355 11kt
So winds vary from the NNE at 3kt at 5000ft to NNW at 11kt at 18000ft.
Relative Humidity drops from 89% at 5000ft to 29% at 18000ft.
TFFR-Pointe-a-Pitre - Le Raizet, Guadeloupe
850 1542 16.2 12.6 79 3.6 13.8 095 6kt
700 3175 8.2 -3.8 42 12.0 2.3 190 7kt
500 5880 -5.9 -21.9 27 16.0 -11.0 345 6kt
Here we have a good bit of directional shear in place.
5000ft ESE at 6kt.
10000ft SSW at 7 kt
18000ft NNW at 6kt.
Relative Humidity drops from 79% at 5000ft to 27% at 18000ft.
In both of the above cases there is dry air aloft.
The RAOB or weather balloon observations from TTPP-Piarco International Airport, Trinidad, Trinidad and Tobago and TBPB-Grantley Adams, Barbados were from 8AM EDT this morning.
Thanks to tha Unidata Program at UCAR and The College of Dupage for the data.
Sounding Link
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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the wave is surprisenly Invest 91L
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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ednva
Unregistered
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According to the 2:00 statement, it's poorly organized and will hit Venezuela tonight...so why bother to make it an invest?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well still has 91L up, and seems like it is the disorganised but pretty active wave just approaching the Lesser Antilles. Certainly some intense convection having blown up during the past few hours with this wave. Additionaly, there is some notable activity in the GOM too. Quite alot of activity for this time of year really!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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