FLHurricane.com: Fay & Florida

Tropical Storm Fay is finally beginning to show some signs of better organization. The LLCC is still somewhat exposed but strong convection to the east is moving closer to the center and the forward speed has slowed - movement now northwest (310 degrees) at 8 knots and decreasing. A convective burst is also noted to the west near the Isle of Pines. Windshear has dropped a little so Fay now has a window for intensification during the diurnal maxima. At 18/00Z the center was still south of the south coast of Cuba near 21N 80.3W with a central pressure of 1001MB.

Model guidance has fluctuated west to east and back again - and more fluctuations are likely. The continues to show good performance with regard to upper level steering currents. The stronger Fay gets prior to crossing Cuba (and after it does), the greater the northward component of motion as she switches from low level to upper level steering. Southwesterly windshear in the southeast Gulf will be the primary controlling factor on the rate and extent of intensification. The listed intensity of 45 knots throughout the day on Sunday was perhaps a bit generous, however developing convection and a slower forward speed should allow Fay to become better organized before crossing Cuba later tonight.

The exact track with reference to Florida is still a tough call because it really depends on how much Fay re-strengthens after leaving the north coast of western Cuba. The winds at 300MB would favor a north northeast track for a Cat I hurricane with potential landfall in the Sanibel Island to Venice area (19/15Z) and an exit point in the Daytona Beach to St. Augustine area (20/12Z). But if Fay remains just a healthy tropical storm, a more northward track up toward Cedar Key is possible. Although the track solution will remain questionable until later on Monday morning, at the moment I tend to favor the 'hurricane' solution.

Since the intensity of the weather will depend on the likely track - and since the magnitude of the weather will depend on the intensity of the tropical cyclone ... well, you get the idea. With a weak front to the north and Fay to the south, two things are fairly certain: 1) Most of Florida will experience at least tropical storm force winds at some time from late Monday through early Wednesday, and 2) as one of our local media meteorologists recently stated, Florida will soon be in a 'Thunderstorm Sandwich'. All of Florida needs to complete storm preparations on Monday.
ED