Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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And here Ike is:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realt...1151500.1km.jpg
Not a top view, but still a good view. MODIS Terra satellite, at 15:10Z today.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Well it sure looks like ike is moving alittle more wnw now ???? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I keep thinking of that track of the 1900 storm for some reason.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1900/index.html
or the 1979 season with the strong high
but none of these storms moved wsw to get here and I really would like some analog storms that show a dip down and then across cuba
anyone?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Raymond
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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New recon mission in: 950 hpa, 107 kt max flight level wind in a E to NW pass of the center (circular, closed eye). Net movement over 7 hours is straight to the west, but looking on satellite you see a northward component for the last 1-2 hours since he left Great Inauga. Let´s see, if this continues!
12 UTC Modell runs: stays consistent and sends him to eastern Texas, stays consistent with central Texas, shifts to the Panhandle.
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rmiller1031
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Panama City, FL
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I thought the same thing looking at this... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html Is it possibly a wobble or could this be the turn that most of you have been forecasting?
Rick
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
...
but none of these storms moved wsw to get here and I really would like some analog storms that show a dip down and then across cuba
anyone?
I think Kate and Baker would be the closest equivalents for the track you seek, although neither originated near Ike, both made southward dips near Cuba.
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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And HWRF shifts to a cat. 3 into Mississippi/ Alabama. HWRF, and track Ike all to the south coast of Cuba and then to the central gulf with the biggest difference late in the runs. There and shift more westward, but HWRF stays straight NW or even more NNW.
This is better then all words: Tracks
Edited by Raymond (Sun Sep 07 2008 03:40 PM)
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
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do you think we are now seeing just a wobble to the north? It will be very interesting to see if this motion continues.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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There is a definite wnw component...how long it will last is anyones guess. This has thrown Ike off the forecast points currently. I have graphic attached. For those in the Keys...this is NOT good news if this motion continues. I find it odd that the models shifted south and this northward component is happening. Is it possible that Hanna's departure is somehow exerting some northward pull on Ike?
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Sep 07 2008 04:23 PM)
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Raymond
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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But the last two center fixes say: movement straight to the west during the last two hours!
Pressure dropes to 945 hPa and the real news: two concentric eyewalls with 16 nm and 48 nm!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I don't see any reason to doubt the 's path right now, it's still going to move mostly west, right now it's probably wobbling a bit more south and then north, but generally due west. It should eventually slow down and more west northwest.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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wobbling a bit more south? I don't see any southward movement at all.
It appears to me that the storm missed the current location a bit to the north.... and the it will have to turn left quite a bit to make the forecast track, but anything is possible.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
They adjusted the track when the new track came out at 5pm ET.. but it looks to me like it's already off that track... maybe it's the overlays on the satellite.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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Quote:
I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
The points were adjusted to the north and it appears as though the has new start points based upon the 5:00PM Bulletin.
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
You are not imagining anything. I saw that as well. And as far as a Southern "wobble" Mike, I sure don't see one and haven't seen one in quite a while. If anything, Ike is taking the Northern periphery of the cone right now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
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Matt
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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They change the points after every advisory so you can only see a variation from the points after about 2 hours starts.
Something is off here. I trust the . They have been good but remember one t hing.. look at the picture to the left of the board that flhurricane has up of Ike's path.
See the cone.
Notice that wnw movement IS in the cone... the top part of the cone would be wnw so if it does start a real movment and not a visible wobble than they can say it's still on track
because... its a cone not a railroad track
it doesn't have to jump the track if it goes a bit to the north..they allow that there
so.............................. wait for 8pm, keep watching and remember even though the models go west the cone allows for wnw movement
hope that made sense
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Ike's eye appears to be doing circles inside it's outer eye wall and throwing off our sense of direction - since he's now jogged back west and southwest after wobbling to the northwest earlier. I remember in '05 doing the same thing as she went through an - except more pronounced since she had such a small eye. Ike's short-term direction will difficult to determine while he continues to do circles. Heck, on SSD loops I can't even tell his overall direction with such wild changes in eye movement. On longer loops the overall direction appears just north of west, but the current direction is really up in the air.
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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When looking at the sat images if you apply the LAT/LONG settings you can see that IKE is moving WNW and will again be north of the plot points. If this direction continues for several hours will the cone be moved ?
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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the thing about direction is that it is determined over hours of observations. In this instance IKE is now due west of where he was before Great Anagua. He wobbled just south of west over the island ( it was actually just south of 21N) and then back north of west and now due west..average direction is west. A few more hours of that and he'll be on the northeast coast of Cuba.
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doug
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