Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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wow, did TD 2 really throw a lot of people for a loop. funny, the model runs of yesterday predicted this. and 90l might form as well today. the unclassified shearing products from the navy showed some favorable areas at 20N 40W. the same area that if any effect to 90l will happen, it will happen there. but beyond that the water tempature is favorable. the latest steering product gives you an idea of the open area the storm has.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Given the typically greater credance to EMCWF, I am curious as to the 0Z run which has 90L ( or TD4? ) soon taking off the the NW and safely into the N. Central Atlantic. Has done that for a couple of recent runs. Bigger systems are more equatorial in motion, than polar. That and the other models pretty much all take it towards the Bahamas. Oh well, enough of that for now....., gotta go out and stock up on some bottled water for a potential Ana visit next weekend!
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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I am suggesting that anna will fall apart and 90L will be dominate feature
The model I am liking is the
CMC is similar
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
WOW HWRF has a 90l as a 950mb storm. I know it probably will NEVER happen but its interesting, I dont think Ive seen a storm that deep before
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/hwrf/invest90l/fcst/archive/09081506/1.html 
Edited by mwillis (Sat Aug 15 2009 09:47 AM)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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my best guess will stay the same as before. landfall on broward county. to the wnw then nw through tampa and n and then ne to the hurricane dumpster.
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kevin_1
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc:
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My guess is Ana passes between Florida & Cuba and makes landfall on the SW Louisiana coast
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I think its a little to early to predict landfall for Ana, yet the cone is a little disturbing to say the least for us in Brevard County. Both 90L and Ana bare watching(what we all do best) to see if they get into the Bahamas which seems likely at least for Ana so far. Might have an interesting weekend coming up . Just for the heck of it, does anybody think Ana making Cat 1 or 2 six days out ?
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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FLHurricane had the best info last year. Looking forward to the same this year.
Hurricane Season is upon us. Our July rainfall totals set all time records in Arkansas:
At Little Rock (Pulaski County), the monthly total of 11.65 inches made it the wettest July on record (breaking the previous record of 9.23 inches in 1891).
And July also went down as the coolest since 1968. 1968 was a very quiet 8 named storms, zero major season.
We'll see. Good luck, everybody.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
The SST's here are 88 degrees.That is pretty darn warm.The weekend is here,so this is a great time to double check your supplies.
I am just hoping we don't get a 1-2 punch, as soon to be TD#3 looks to follow roughly the same path as Ana.
I agree with your second point. We have had a pretty wet summer such that if the first one passes over or just south of us we could be completely soaked. Then you REALLY don't want to see a second system in the same pattern. Problem is that it seems we get SOME pattern set up here and it DOES tend to hang around for a couple of days at least (sometimes much longer this season). So there is some history to suggest these two may come into the area back to back on similar paths. Getting some of the type of supplies today that we would use up anyway after the season....just in case 
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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With some of the models shifting a bit south, my guess now is that Ana is a northern Cuba and/or Keys storm -- if it makes it that far. It's struggling with shear, dry air is ahead of it, and it's questionable whether Ana could survive a close encounter with Hispaniola.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
With some of the models shifting a bit south, my guess now is that Ana is a northern Cuba and/or Keys storm -- if it makes it that far. It's struggling with shear, dry air is ahead of it, and it's questionable whether Ana could survive a close encounter with Hispaniola.
Latest discussion on Ana is really hedging their bets on this storm. Seems like they are saying that is COULD hold together, or it COULD fall apart. One thing they don't seem to think will happen is for it to strengthen much. Hopefully some of the models (especially shear) will come into focus in the next couple of runs.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Since we don't have a thread about the area over the Keys, I figured this was where to post this observation. We just had a band of rain move through that was very tropical in feel. Didn't last long, lots of wind with it and moderate blustery rain. Darned if it didn't feel a bit like a week squall band from a TS. Look at the radar images from central Florida this afternoon.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Artie
Unregistered
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any thoughts on tampa with this ana?http://i.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/icons/shocked.gif
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dstanley
Unregistered
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At this point my question is moot, but I'll ask anyway: When TD2 showed up, and was designated, then fell apart, did it get to stay TD2? Or did it go from "Remnants of TD2" straight to Ana?
Where's the numbering convention? My google-fu is failing me.
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dstanley
Unregistered
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I would say Tampa would be a bit premature at this time. The animated model has barely reached the east coast.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The system was redesignated as TD2 at about 1235am and upgraded to TS Ana at 5am today (EDST).
ED
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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ANA is about to become a remenent low by Sunday.... dry air is killing her!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I wouldn't write off Ana just yet. It has been rather persistent in a hostile environment so far. Ana has a fairly good envelope of moisture and has been fighting off the drier air around her. The system just off FL is still getting wrapped and is moving fairly rapidly to the NW-NNW - now just west of Punta Gorda on the radar presentation. If not a TD at 11 PM ET, then by 5 AM if it persists.
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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ANA has no model support anymore...or hardly..and they wont upgrade the GOM disturbance until @ least 11am Sunday if @ all...its mostly in the midlevels!
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gatorman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc:
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if Ana goes where it is forcasted to go, in the gulf, what would stop it from developing? TD4 seems to have developed very nicely in a relative short peroid of time, seems like ana would be over warmer SST and have a longer peroid over these waters? and if it did develop back to a TS or even a weak hurricane, poleward movement would drasticly change forecast,correct??just wondering.
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dstanley
Unregistered
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Quote:
The system was redesignated as TD2 at about 1235am and upgraded to TS Ana at 5am today (EDST).
ED
Thanks Ed!
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