Aloha Friends. Interesting developments in the Central Pacific Basin these past few days leading to a major cat 3 hurricane, passing well west of the Main Hawaiian Islands (thankfully!), but now threatening a very delicate ecosystem of shoals and reefs known as the "Leeward Hawaiian Islands".



Unfortunately, I haven't been able to post since last week, so now I'll finally be able to share some interesting developments in the deep tropics leading up to the genesis of Tropical Depression '3C' and the continued strengthening of this system to what eventually has now become MAJOR Hurricane 'NEKI'. I'll have some time over the next few days to expand this section for interested readers, as this is one of the most interesting El-Nino-Related events to transpire in the Central Pacific in quite a few years.

First, a little overview and background information leading to this very interesting example of cyclogenesis ...

To start with, here's a quote from 'vpbob' from several days ago, which expresses it very well:

Quote:

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(Original Post: #87024 - Sun Oct 18 2009 05:37 PM)

Many models have been predicting some kind of tropical cyclone formation to the south and southeast of Hawaii for several days now, and today things have come together to form Tropical Depression #3-C, about 900 miles SSE of Honolulu. It is expected to move WNW, then NW and stay south of the islands, although it may come very close to Johnston Island in about 4 days.

The official forecast is for the storm to increase in intensity to a 75 knot hurricane in 5 days, although some models are higher than that. It looks like some high surf for the south and west facing beaches if this storm develops as expected. The next name on the Central Pacific list would be Neki.

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NOTE: This remainder of this post reserved (for chronological purposes) for post-analysis of the early developments in the deep tropics of a large cyclonic gyre (to be described) leading to the eventual cyclogenesis of 'TD-3C' and TS/Hurricane 'NEKI'. (Replies are always gladly welcomed )

I'll be adding abundant graphics and paraphrases from official advisories and 'meteorological discussions' and a bit of personal analysis, too, over the next day or two, as time permits, illustrating and describing the interesting 'early-life' events of Tropical Cyclone '3C', which is now Major Cat 3 Hurricane 'Neki'.



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Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Oct 21 2009 09:21 PM)

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