Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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UPDATE: TD7 upgraded to Tropical Storm Earl at 25/21Z.
This morning Invest 96L in the far eastern Atlantic located at 14.3N 30.8W at 25/15Z was upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven with winds of 30kts and pressure at 1007MB. Long range models currently move the system west to west northwest at 15-20 knots and intensify it to hurricane strength by Saturday (perhaps earlier).
This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 02 2010 10:20 PM)
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Texas
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i think it is possible this storm may stay south and not recurve
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Is it still expected to go north before it impacts land? (I'm hopeless figuring this sort of thing out by myself)
(Post moved to appropriate Forum. TS Earl is a long way - at least 5 days - from any potential landfall.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 25 2010 05:13 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yes odds currently favor it heading north and out to sea before land, but it isn't quite the same guarantee as Danielle was. The eastern Caribbean islands are currently in the cone. In short, watch the trends of the forecast and models. The next round of (18z) is coming soon.
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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Orlando
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I am a little surprised that the 18Z is as bullish as it is for Earl's development in the next day or two.
The upper level wind field ahead of Earl is not a storm killer, but I would not call it Friendly Skies either.
If the wind forecast holds true for the next 24 - 36, it will be interesting to see how much stronger this storm gets in the near term. I am not predicting that it will not make it through, but I suspect that development will be hampered.
Looking at wind forecast data here:
Navy FNMOC
**WAIT** Nevermind, that was the model that I clicked on. does not look as bad.
Too many irons in the fire.....
Edited by IMTechspec (Wed Aug 25 2010 08:34 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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For those that asked about the model output differences from the , the answer is in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum.
Cheers,
ED
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The 12Z puts Earl very close to the islands, close enough to feel some tropical storm force winds. But not a direct impact, probably enough that if the trend continues watches/warnings will go up there.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that we've all got a pretty good handle on where Earl is heading so I'll open up this thread for Weather Reports. If you are in an area that is going to have some impacts from Earl, use this thread to report your weather conditions.
At 10PM EDT, Diamond Shoals, N.C., had winds from 030 degrees at 45 gusting to 56 knots.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Here are a few additional wind reports from North Carolina:
6AM, Cape Hatteras: Wind northwest at 30mph gusting to 62mph
7AM, Diamond Shoals: Wind northwest at 49knots gusting to 60knots
8AM, Manteo: Wind north at 44mph gusting to 70mph
ED
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