Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A tropical cyclone (not yet designated) formed last night near the northeast border of Honduras and Nicaragua. At 11/18Z the cyclone was centered just north of the northeast coast of Nicaragua near 15.7N 83.7W with surface winds close to or slightly in excess of 35 knots as reported by AF recon and a central pressure of 1001MB. With no detectable steering currents in the area, a slow crawl toward the northwest is likely for the next few days. SST is 28C, and with no windshear of consequence, slow intensification is possible. I would anticipate that tropical storm warnings will soon be issued for portions of Honduras, Belize, the eastern Yucatan, and perhaps portions of eastern Nicaragua. Because the system is nearly stationary, heavy rainfall and flooding are likely in those areas. The next name on the list is Paula.
ED
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 11 2010 05:28 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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You are correct, sir! I took a quick glance at the 12Z package today. Paula won't be going anywhere quickly, especially if the upcoming cutoff low over the New England area and associated longwave trough don't pick Paula up. Interesting feature is the upper ridge axis and possible closed upper high in either the Central or SW GOM behind the departing trough and near the cyclone which should keep shear to a minimum if the location verifies. It appears it's the next progressive and deeper shortwave is near day 7 that is likely to move Paula across FL. I'll know more when I look at tonight's 00Z package.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I'm thinking the 00Z runs will be a bit more definitive on the prospective track. If we do get a hurricane in the NW Caribbean simply meandering until it can hitch a ride, things could get dicey.
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Michael
PWS
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Yep Michael, could'nt agree more. An even greater concern with an intensifying system that might only feel a slight tug from the near term short wave, is if Paula should deepen just enough to in fact be pulled to the north of W. Cuba, and then just sit or meander/drift north or eastward awaiting the stronger digging front later in the cycle. Such a set up would situate the Florida Keys in the N.E. sector ( not to mention the waves of moisture pulled north over Western Cuba and S. Florida ). Will be interesting to see how much of a dynamic Paula's own upper anticyclone plays in warming the environment and further shoving the westerlies northward.
Very eager to see how quickly model support comes together on speed and motion, now that we have a finite vortex with a true initial fix. I imagine we'll have more planes flying in and around this one than typical. Close enough to garner a tremendous amount of data ( along with enough accurate downstream data taken over the ). I'm guessing will likely hone in pretty well on Paula's future track by the early runs tomorrow.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 11 2010 11:29 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 295
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Me-gut feeling is that Paula will continue to deepen through the next 36 hours and winds will approach 100 mph as she nears the Yucatan. Hard right turn after that? Not sold on this scenario ATM. Maybe Paula will slowly drift to the north or northeast for a while (ala near the tip of the Yucatan, before she made her mind up to aim for S Fla.) before responding to the westerlies. Regardless, there should be a very impressive/defined moisture gradient between Paula and the dry air mass moving into the GOMEX later this week.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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