MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The month of June looks to be fairly quiet this year, with not much on the horizon, and one of the signals we watch out for is the Madden Julian Oscillation (Aka ), and right now the signals are very weak. Usually in June, the regions to watch out or are the Western Caribbean, and sometimes further east. Occasionally something in the bay of Campeche will form, however there is no reliable sign that anything will occur there.
Into July things start to change, and it becomes more worthwhile to expand the areas you watch closely, and mid to late August is usually when things really start to come together in the tropical Atlantic.
During June the updates will be less frequent, unless something does occur. But in all likelihood there won't be much to talk about this month.
Parts of Florida and northern Gulf coasts have been dealing with very large drought problems this year, and the NWS Melbourne recently shared a graphic that explains this well (Source is from the Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service).
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
Former NWS Meteorologist Jim Lushine has made the connection in the past, and it boils down to it usually signals a stronger Bermuda high in the west for the season which increases the chances (by about 50-60% from a weak Bermuda High year) for storms that form in the Atlantic to allow closer approach to Florida, but not necessarily that it will occur, the area can shift back east by August which would lower chances again.
In the East Pacific, there is Adrian (Just weakened back to a Tropical Depression), which is being discussed Here.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 12 2011 10:41 AM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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Has anyone been watching that wave off the NE coast of South America? It has generated a decent amount of convection today. Sea temps are warm, and it won't be impacted by much dry air; however, shear will affect it. Nonetheless, I think it could be something to watch over the next couple days.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm keeping an eye on a small area of so far persistant convection right on the Nicaragua-Caribbean Sea border that is moving northwards. It seems to be developing a circulation of some kind, about the only thing interesting I'm seeing right now on the convection loops for Atlantic Wide View.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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The area in the SW Caribbean is looking much more active this afternoon. The area of interest is in a region of lower shear than farther to its north, so it is not being ripped apart. I was also taking a look at the SAL charts earlier, and there is no sign of dry air in the region. This appears to be the same area that the models take into the GOM by the middle of next week. I think it could be worth watching over the next several days. What are your thoughts on this feature?
BTW, I've attached a recent satellite image of it.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Early sign of an Upper Level Low forming in the Bay of Campeche. This is probably the signature that the has been working off of for the last few days.
It should take a few days to work down to the surface. IF it even deepens that much.
Current surface winds are from the East on the Eastern BOC and Calm on the Western BOC.
This post borders on nowcasting and forecasting. Feel free to move it ED.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Interesting looking area just off the coast from Brownsville, TX this morning. Any thoughts?
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It appears, at this time, to be a mid level feature, or so small that the buoys are missing the data.
I've also checked the metars from the airports on the South Texas Coast and so far I don't see a wind or pressure indicator.
A drop in the pressure or increase in the wind speed.
Buoy 42002, the West GOM buoy is offline so we may be missing some important data.
There are ships in the area around 42002, but their data is delayed for security reasons.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 24 2011 07:31 AM)
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Edski
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: Palm Harbor, Florida, USA
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some of that moisture is finally reaching the Tampa area. nice steady rain all morning today. on the sattelite loops it looks like pulses coming ashore.
I'm not as impressed by the stuff off the coast of Nicaragua as the (they've got a 20% zone up), but 1) I'm not a pro, and 2) at 20% they don't seem too concered either. Looks like the upper level winds get a little hostile next 2 days for that system, and it's close to shore already.
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