danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Early reports from the Offshore Oil Platforms.
This report is about 20 minutes old.
ICAO KIPN
Station Name N/A
Country N/A
Location N/A 28.1N/ 88.0W
Elevation N/A
Time 1 / 13:55Z
Temperature 84.2
Dew Point 75.2
RH 75
Heat Index 92.5
Wind SE (130) at 36mph, 43mph gusts
Wind Chill N/A
Visibility 10.0
Pressure 1014.2
Weather
Sky Condition Few clouds at 2100ft
Scattered clouds at 2600ft
Remarks
METAR KIPN 011355Z AUTO 13031G37KT 10SM FEW021 SCT026 29/24 A2995 RMK A01
LA INDEPEDENCE 920 KIPN IPN 28 05N 087 59W 41 meters above sea level
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 01 2011 10:33 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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ICAO KMDJ
Station Name N/A
Country N/A
Location N/A 28.6 N/ 89.8W
Elevation N/A
Time 1 / 14:15Z
Temperature 82.4
Dew Point 77.0
RH 84
Heat Index 90.9
Wind SE (140) at 46mph
Wind Chill N/A
Visibility 9.0
Pressure 1013.9
Weather
Sky Condition Few clouds at 1900ft
Broken clouds at 2400ft
Broken clouds at 3200ft
Remarks
METAR KMDJ 011415Z AUTO 14040KT 9SM FEW019 BKN024 BKN032 28/25 A2994 RMK A01
LA MISS CANYON 311A KMDJ MDJ 28 39N 089 48W 31meters above sea level
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 01 2011 10:34 AM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Am not at all getting the "warm and fuzzies" regarding 93L. Prior to those oil rig reports, I was eyeing the vis. satellite and took note of a point of low level turning close to 28N and 90W. Of course this could be an "eddie", and/or a point where a low level is trying to form. Ultimately, it will take a little time for convection to maintain itself, and thus start to wrap around such a center. Given current shear, this is the near term saving grace. Once we get a solid , though....., looks like steering is nebulous at best. Those wind reports ( especially the strong winds coming out of the SSE ( 140 degrees ), further implies to me that a possible center might be near or slightly west of 90W.
Almost strikes me as a possible "wetter/larger" version of Elena - Labor Day Weekend 1985. The system came off the coast of Cuba I think, started going toward the Northwest and threatened the Texas E. Gulf Coast, then "zigged" east a little, than "zagged" back west and I think came ashore on the Louisiana coastline.
Models are all over the place still, but I know one thing...., Katia "should" be bending more to the NW, but is presently getting sheared and perhaps less responsive to the mid level steering weakness to its Northwest. It appears to be racing more or less Westward at the moment. Now I know Texas really could use the rains from what may turn into "Lee", but despite Texas being as parched as it is, am not to sure it would be good news for the , to see a pattern that could see a "potential" storm in the Gulf starting to head Southwest or Westward. Should the large mid/upper ridge thats been sitting over the Southern Plains finally decide to nudge it's influence eastward, than the might see greater risk from systems approaching from the deep tropics and farther east.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Katia low level center is starting to out race its main convection is going to miss next forecast point to the south. Katia looks to be weaker then 75mph based on satellite presentation. I really have to wonder about this northwest turn? seems to wonder a bit to based on guidance being split. This system is far from a given fish storm or at very least much further left before turn. If it stays weaker the way it looks now the further west she will go at least short term and maybe long term.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Am I wrong to think the low pressure system at 35N 70W (end of the old frontal boundary) is driving the bus for 93L and maybe even Katia? It seems from the satellite image to be the instigator of the shear mercifully keeping 93L from intensifying.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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It is too soon to say what 93L will or will not do.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NOAA is flying 93L for some reason. USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunters were tasked with the flight.
Possible broad center of circulation near 26.7N/ 91.0W at 1800Z.
Time: 18:20:00Z
Coordinates: 26.15N 90.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 958.4 mb (~ 28.30 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 465 meters (~ 1,526 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1009.9 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 137° at 1 knots (From the SE at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 25.4°C (~ 77.7°F)
Dew Pt: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 01 2011 02:43 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Weather Channel is reporting that at least one of the Katia Models has changed to a slightly more westward solution.
At this time only one model has shown this solution. It appears to be the 12Z UKMET. It currently diverges just north of the Lesser Antilles and curves toward the Turks and Caicos Islands.
93L Update:
NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found a possible closed circulation in the GOM. This may upgrade 93L to TD 14.
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weathernet
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Quote:
It is too soon to say what 93L will or will not do.
Well, I'd say it's soon enough to say 93L is at minimum a tropical depression. Perhaps NOT YET officially, recon just reported a west wind at some point N. of 25N & 90W. Actually vis. satellite depicts quite well, how much organization seems to going on, in just a few short hours. Winds are already there ( though largly in part due to gradient ), proximity to land, and add a touch of Holiday Weekend, and will assume a special that "a depression appears to be forming" to come out at any time. Organization might be limit to why 93L might not be upgraded straight to "storm", but assume could even occur tonight.
Glad we've got the "planes" to go in and verify what appears to be happening with our eyes.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 01 2011 04:31 PM)
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weathernet
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Quote:
The Weather Channel is reporting that at least one of the Katia Models has changed to a slightly more westward solution.
At this time only one model has shown this solution. It appears to be the 12Z UKMET.
Hmmm, just got a peek at the updated 12 Euro. "Thats" our other model that the Weather Channel were referencing. At about 192 hours ( and after even a temp. jog to the WSW ), the EURO has shifted well westward from its previous 0Z forecast, and approaches the Turks & Caicos. It still recurves Katia abruptly after that point, but more importantly a significant shift westward for this particular run.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 01 2011 04:33 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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NHC will downgrade Katia to a 60-knot Tropical Storm at 01/21Z. Also, Best Track indicates TD for the Gulf system, but final determination will probably require confirmation from the NOAA aircraft.
AL, 93, 2011090118, , BEST, 0, 270N, 905W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ
ED
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Yeah watching recon on google earth maps out there, sure looks like it might be close. But judging by the winds and what not it looks fairly broad, will see.... "Kermit" still crossing through out there....
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MikeC
Admin
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The NOAA Recon plane found a center in 93L, but it's not very organized. It's a judgement call on if it should be upgraded or not, my guess is not, at least until later.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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I see now 94L has been posted which looks to be a low pressure area in the old frontal boundary (50% probability). It still looks to my eyes that the ULL just SW of 94L is shearing it apart as well as 93L (now 80% probability). Could the ULL be affecting Katia too? She was projected to intensify, but has only grown weaker today.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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MikeC
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93L just got renumbered, so it looks like the call to upgrade has been made, the forecast should be interesting on this one.
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Joeyfl
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Yep looks like new TD/maybe storm?? in central Gulf I expect will have there package out by 8pm, like Mike said this forecast should be rather interesting...
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm 13L.
Shouldn't change a whole lot of the forecasts as it's here now.
I'm 65 miles inland and we are getting occasional thunderstorm here, in band or squalls. I can't complain about the breeze though. It feels nice.
By the way. The Mayor of New Orleans upped the ante about 3 PM this afternoon. He advised residents to clear the storm drains and park their car on higher ground.
He apparently doesn't intend to repeat the past.
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 01 2011 07:30 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Correction....
If does go straight to Tropical Storm Lee they will have to initiate Tropical Storm Warnings at 8 PM EDT.
If they go to Tropical Depression 13 they will still have to issue Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, due to the proximity to land and population centers.
My thinking is that they will issue a Tropical Storm Watch from the Texas / Louisiana border to the Mississippi / Alabama border. That's a large area, but this is a large system.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Tropical Depression 13 is located 225 miles SW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL132011
0000 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 01 2011 07:46 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Curious on what seems to me conflicting information and would like some verification. I've heard that the front will not be strong enough to pick up Lee... that is what some of the models are suggesting. Yet, they feel the same trough will pick up Katia. Are these two different troughs? If it doesn't pull and catch soon to be Lee and Lee wanders in the Gulf, why would it assert so much pressure on Katia to make a sharp turn the same way Irene did.
As a weak storm Katia is going to keep going west and the models will pull more to the left. Her wind field possibilities are further west and south than they were earlier in the day.
We really need to get down intensity forecasting.
It's a tough call for the , wouldn't want to be in their position or any NWS office along the Gulf as she is hard to predict as it goes right now.
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